<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><base href="/"><title>Barclays: Hurricane Harvey Will Be More Disruptive Than People Think</title><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1,user-scalable=no"><link rel="canonical" itemprop="url" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/25/barclays-hurricane-harvey-will-be-more-disruptive-than-people-think/"><script>!function(e){function n(r){if(t[r])return t[r].exports;var o=t[r]={i:r,l:!1,exports:{}};return e[r].call(o.exports,o,o.exports,n),o.l=!0,o.exports}var r=window.webpackJsonp;window.webpackJsonp=function(t,c,a){for(var i,u,f,s=0,d=[];s<t.length;s++)u=t[s],o[u]&&d.push(o[u][0]),o[u]=0;for(i in c)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(c,i)&&(e[i]=c[i]);for(r&&r(t,c,a);d.length;)d.shift()();if(a)for(s=0;s<a.length;s++)f=n(n.s=a[s]);return f};var t={},o={6:0};n.e=function(e){function 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<div _ngcontent-c20="" innerhtml="<div id=&quot;attachment_839057486&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839057486%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839057486%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
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  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
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    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>In this NOAA handout image, NOAA's GOES East satellite capture of Hurricane Harvey shows the storm's eye as the storm nears landfall at 10:07 a.m. EDT (1407 UTC) on August 25, 2017 in the southeastern coast of Texas. (Photo by NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Hurricane Harvey hits landfall tonight with two feet of rainfall expected along the Gulf coast of Texas. Barclays Capital thinks that the flooding damage alone is likely to be a major disruption for oil supplies, pushing gasoline prices higher in the near-term and adding to bullish sentiment for crude for the remainder of 2017.</p> 
<p>Gasoline and diesel&amp;nbsp;prices have already been moving higher in Texas. The storm has gone from a category two hurricane to a category three this afternoon, with sustained wind speeds upwards of 110 miles per hour expected. &amp;nbsp;People are evacuating and gassing up while local refineries are being shut down in preparation for storm surge. As long as the impact of incremental fuel&amp;nbsp;demand outweighs production, gasoline prices will continue to increase.</p> 
<p><strong>See: <a href=&quot;https://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Energy Disruptions Report</a></strong></p> 
<p><strong><a href=&quot;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Harvey Page</a></strong></p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_41507382&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignright&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507382%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507382%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
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  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>Texas refineries in the line of fire. (Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>On the crude side, there are three potential impacts, Barclays analysts led by Michael Cohen wrote in a note to clients on Friday.</p> 
<p>First, production infrastructure will likely be temporarily shut in in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Some&amp;nbsp;10% of the Gulf’s output (or around 150,000 barrels daily) has been shut in as of yesterday. &quot;We would not be surprised if more than half is shut as a precautionary measure through the weekend,&quot; Cohen says. Texas oil production facilities have learned from hurricane’s Katrina and Rita in 2005 and will likely rebound relatively quickly&amp;nbsp;so long as workers can get to their jobs when the storm is over and flooding subsides.</p> 
<div class=&quot;vestpocket&quot; vest-pocket=&quot;&quot;></div> 
<p>The second possible impact will be onshore, most importantly to the 1.4&amp;nbsp;million barrels per day&amp;nbsp;Eagle Ford shale basin. Given the crude oil price action on Friday, BarCap believes the market is not fully pricing in the impact on crude supplies that the hurricane is likely to have from inland and storm-surge related flooding. Oil futures rose around 43 cents to $47.86, significantly below the day's high of $52.43 per barrel for the October oil futures contract.</p> 
<p>The storm’s path will create high winds and localized flooding in the Eagle Ford shale basin, which means there's no pumping going on there this weekend. Conoco Phillips and Marathon announced on Thursday that they were putting their Eagle Ford shale activities on pause. Other companies will likely follow.</p> 
<p>The final impact of Harvey&amp;nbsp;is likely to center around trade, BarCap believes.</p> 
<p>In the short term, pipelines that terminate in the Corpus Christi area, totaling roughly 1 million barrels per day could be delayed in their return due to flooding and the likelihood that companies will want to conduct inspections before flipping the switch to full-power service. There is also the chance that if the storm is as bad as The Weather Channel is letting on, flooding is seen&amp;nbsp;delaying the crude export infrastructure projects currently being built in the Corpus Christi area.</p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_838956780&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignright&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F838956780%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F838956780%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
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  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>A man walks near the bay waters as they churn from approaching Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>For money makers: Barclays thinks that if refining and export infrastructure is delayed, it could widen the price spread between Brent and WTI oil. If production infrastructure is slow to return, it could tighten the spread between the two oil futures.</p> 
<p>&quot;Hurricane Harvey is likely to fuel bullish market sentiment through the first half of September,&quot; Cohen writes. Delays in production of Texas oil will impact the Energy Information Administration's weekly oil market data for at least this coming month, thereby adding to bullish market sentiment.</p> 
<p>Heavy winds and rainfall, high waves and severe flooding is expected to leave parts of southern Texas underwater for days, with the National Weather Service going so far as to say that it could leave some towns there &quot;uninhabitable for weeks or months.&quot; Although Harvey is much smaller than the category five hurricane Katrina that slammed Louisiana in 2005, at least 1,800 died from that storm alone.</p>"><div id="attachment_839057486" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839057486%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839057486%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">In this NOAA handout image, NOAA's GOES East satellite capture of Hurricane Harvey shows the storm's eye as the storm nears landfall at 10:07 a.m. EDT (1407 UTC) on August 25, 2017 in the southeastern coast of Texas. (Photo by NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p class="speakable-paragraph">Hurricane Harvey hits landfall tonight with two feet of rainfall expected along the Gulf coast of Texas. Barclays Capital thinks that the flooding damage alone is likely to be a major disruption for oil supplies, pushing gasoline prices higher in the near-term and adding to bullish sentiment for crude for the remainder of 2017.</p> 
<p>Gasoline and diesel&nbsp;prices have already been moving higher in Texas. The storm has gone from a category two hurricane to a category three this afternoon, with sustained wind speeds upwards of 110 miles per hour expected. &nbsp;People are evacuating and gassing up while local refineries are being shut down in preparation for storm surge. As long as the impact of incremental fuel&nbsp;demand outweighs production, gasoline prices will continue to increase.</p> 
<p><strong>See: <a href="https://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Energy Disruptions Report</a></strong></p> 
<p><strong><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Harvey Page</a></strong></p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<div id="attachment_41507382" class="wp-caption alignright"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507382%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507382%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">Texas refineries in the line of fire. (Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>On the crude side, there are three potential impacts, Barclays analysts led by Michael Cohen wrote in a note to clients on Friday.</p> 
<p>First, production infrastructure will likely be temporarily shut in in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Some&nbsp;10% of the Gulf’s output (or around 150,000 barrels daily) has been shut in as of yesterday. "We would not be surprised if more than half is shut as a precautionary measure through the weekend," Cohen says. Texas oil production facilities have learned from hurricane’s Katrina and Rita in 2005 and will likely rebound relatively quickly&nbsp;so long as workers can get to their jobs when the storm is over and flooding subsides.</p> 
<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> 
<p>The second possible impact will be onshore, most importantly to the 1.4&nbsp;million barrels per day&nbsp;Eagle Ford shale basin. Given the crude oil price action on Friday, BarCap believes the market is not fully pricing in the impact on crude supplies that the hurricane is likely to have from inland and storm-surge related flooding. Oil futures rose around 43 cents to $47.86, significantly below the day's high of $52.43 per barrel for the October oil futures contract.</p> 
<p>The storm’s path will create high winds and localized flooding in the Eagle Ford shale basin, which means there's no pumping going on there this weekend. Conoco Phillips and Marathon announced on Thursday that they were putting their Eagle Ford shale activities on pause. Other companies will likely follow.</p> 
<p>The final impact of Harvey&nbsp;is likely to center around trade, BarCap believes.</p> 
<p>In the short term, pipelines that terminate in the Corpus Christi area, totaling roughly 1 million barrels per day could be delayed in their return due to flooding and the likelihood that companies will want to conduct inspections before flipping the switch to full-power service. There is also the chance that if the storm is as bad as The Weather Channel is letting on, flooding is seen&nbsp;delaying the crude export infrastructure projects currently being built in the Corpus Christi area.</p> 
<div id="attachment_838956780" class="wp-caption alignright"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F838956780%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F838956780%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">A man walks near the bay waters as they churn from approaching Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>For money makers: Barclays thinks that if refining and export infrastructure is delayed, it could widen the price spread between Brent and WTI oil. If production infrastructure is slow to return, it could tighten the spread between the two oil futures.</p> 
<p>"Hurricane Harvey is likely to fuel bullish market sentiment through the first half of September," Cohen writes. Delays in production of Texas oil will impact the Energy Information Administration's weekly oil market data for at least this coming month, thereby adding to bullish market sentiment.</p> 
<p>Heavy winds and rainfall, high waves and severe flooding is expected to leave parts of southern Texas underwater for days, with the National Weather Service going so far as to say that it could leave some towns there "uninhabitable for weeks or months." Although Harvey is much smaller than the category five hurricane Katrina that slammed Louisiana in 2005, at least 1,800 died from that storm alone.</p></div>
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	</app-root><script id="ng-templates-state" type="application/json">{&q;environmentName&q;:&q;prod&q;,&q;is_mobile&q;:false,&q;/forbesapi/content/uri.json?shortcodes=true&a;slides=true&a;type=ng&a;tickers=true&a;bvallpages=true&a;autovpslider=true&a;stream=true&a;compressimages=true&a;mobile=false&a;prgsmobileads=false&a;relativeVideo=true&a;videoplayertype=brightcove_perform_with_keyvalues&a;swimlane=&a;uri=http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/25/barclays-hurricane-harvey-will-be-more-disruptive-than-people-think/&q;:{&q;content&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;content_59a0909964aaf9435aebc06a&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/1383-52318&q;,&q;source&q;:&q;blogs&q;,&q;author&q;:&q;Kenneth Rapoza&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Barclays: Hurricane Harvey Will Be More Disruptive Than People Think&q;,&q;date&q;:1503697260000,&q;body&q;:&q;&l;p&g;[caption id=\&q;attachment_839057486\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839057486\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839057486/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;755\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; In this NOAA handout image, NOAA&s;s GOES East satellite capture of Hurricane Harvey shows the storm&s;s eye as the storm nears landfall at 10:07 a.m. EDT (1407 UTC) on August 25, 2017 in the southeastern coast of Texas. (Photo by NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images)[/caption]\r\n\r\nHurricane Harvey hits landfall tonight with two feet of rainfall expected along the Gulf coast of Texas. Barclays Capital thinks that the flooding damage alone is likely to be a major disruption for oil supplies, pushing gasoline prices higher in the near-term and adding to bullish sentiment for crude for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nGasoline and diesel&a;nbsp;prices have already been moving higher in Texas. The storm has gone from a category two hurricane to a category three this afternoon, with sustained wind speeds upwards of 110 miles per hour expected. &a;nbsp;People are evacuating and gassing up while local refineries are being shut down in preparation for storm surge. As long as the impact of incremental fuel&a;nbsp;demand outweighs production, gasoline prices will continue to increase.\r\n\r\n&l;strong&g;See: &l;a href=\&q;https://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Energy Disruptions Report&l;/a&g;&l;/strong&g;\r\n&l;strong&g;&l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;National Hurricane Center&s;s Hurricane Harvey Page&l;/a&g;&l;/strong&g;\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_41507382\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;alignright\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507382\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507382/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; Texas refineries in the line of fire. (Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)[/caption]\r\n\r\nOn the crude side, there are three potential impacts, Barclays analysts led by Michael Cohen wrote in a note to clients on Friday.\r\n\r\nFirst, production infrastructure will likely be temporarily shut in in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Some&a;nbsp;10% of the Gulf&a;rsquo;s output (or around 150,000 barrels daily) has been shut in as of yesterday. \&q;We would not be surprised if more than half is shut as a precautionary measure through the weekend,\&q; Cohen says. Texas oil production facilities have learned from hurricane&a;rsquo;s Katrina and Rita in 2005 and will likely rebound relatively quickly&a;nbsp;so long as workers can get to their jobs when the storm is over and flooding subsides.\r\n\r\nThe second possible impact will be onshore, most importantly to the 1.4&a;nbsp;million barrels per day&a;nbsp;Eagle Ford shale basin. Given the crude oil price action on Friday, BarCap believes the market is not fully pricing in the impact on crude supplies that the hurricane is likely to have from inland and storm-surge related flooding. Oil futures rose around 43 cents to $47.86, significantly below the day&s;s high of $52.43 per barrel for the October oil futures contract.\r\n&l;!--donotpaginate--&g;\r\nThe storm&a;rsquo;s path will create high winds and localized flooding in the Eagle Ford shale basin, which means there&s;s no pumping going on there this weekend. Conoco Phillips and Marathon announced on Thursday that they were putting their Eagle Ford shale activities on pause. Other companies will likely follow.\r\n\r\nThe final impact of Harvey&a;nbsp;is likely to center around trade, BarCap believes.\r\n\r\nIn the short term, pipelines that terminate in the Corpus Christi area, totaling roughly 1 million barrels per day could be delayed in their return due to flooding and the likelihood that companies will want to conduct inspections before flipping the switch to full-power service. There is also the chance that if the storm is as bad as The Weather Channel is letting on, flooding is seen&a;nbsp;delaying the crude export infrastructure projects currently being built in the Corpus Christi area.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_838956780\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;alignright\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-838956780\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/838956780/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; A man walks near the bay waters as they churn from approaching Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)[/caption]\r\n\r\nFor money makers: Barclays thinks that if refining and export infrastructure is delayed, it could widen the price spread between Brent and WTI oil. If production infrastructure is slow to return, it could tighten the spread between the two oil futures.\r\n\r\n\&q;Hurricane Harvey is likely to fuel bullish market sentiment through the first half of September,\&q; Cohen writes. Delays in production of Texas oil will impact the Energy Information Administration&s;s weekly oil market data for at least this coming month, thereby adding to bullish market sentiment.\r\n\r\nHeavy winds and rainfall, high waves and severe flooding is expected to leave parts of southern Texas underwater for days, with the National Weather Service going so far as to say that it could leave some towns there \&q;uninhabitable for weeks or months.\&q; Although Harvey is much smaller than the category five hurricane Katrina that slammed Louisiana in 2005, at least 1,800 died from that storm alone.&l;/p&g;&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Barclays thinks that the flooding impact alone could damage oil supply, as well as port facilities, and its impact is likely to be worse than the market is currently assuming.&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839057486/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;storyType&q;:&q;post&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/25/barclays-hurricane-harvey-will-be-more-disruptive-than-people-think/&q;,&q;comments&q;:[],&q;visible&q;:true,&q;authors&q;:[{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/20560&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Kenneth Rapoza&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-136x136.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-62x62.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-40x40.jpg&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;/sites/kenrapoza/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;BRICBreaker&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;linkedIn&q;:&q;https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=16936483&a;trk=spm_pic&q;,&q;email&q;:&q;bricbreaker@igc.org&q;,&q;blog&q;:false,&q;timestamp&q;:1513701712206,&q;blogName&q;:&q;BRIC Breaker&q;,&q;topics&q;:[&q;investing&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;markets&q;,&q;washington&q;,&q;advisor-network&q;,&q;etfs&q;,&q;lifestyle&q;,&q;real-estate&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;powering-productivity&q;],&q;recentFlag&q;:false,&q;description&q;:&q;I&s;ve written about Brazil pre-Lula and post-Lula and spent the last five years covering all aspects of the country for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones. Meanwhile, for an undetermined amount of time, and with a little help from my friends, I will be parachuting primarily into Brazil, Russia, India and China. But will also be on the look out for interesting business stories and investing ideas throughout the emerging markets.&q;,&q;recentActivityCount&q;:0,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447771380000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-1383&q;,&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/12liUla&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;kenrapozablog&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1299187805000,&q;slug&q;:&q;kenrapoza&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;sigfile&q;:&q;For media or event bookings related to Brazil, Russia, India or China, find me on Twitter at &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/BRICBreaker\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q;&g;@BRICBreaker&l;/a&g;&q;,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;BRICBreaker&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Kenneth Rapoza&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/889667668785156096/UErVa4Pv.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Twitter account for Forbes&s; daily emerging markets coverage, namely #Brazil #Russia #India #China. Jet-lagged journalist allowed to opine. Ex-WSJ in Sao Paulo.&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1314068497000,&q;location&q;:&q;New York, NY&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;https://t.co/pckxoQvX8t&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/#24918a2e7d9e&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…&q;,&q;verified&q;:false},&q;inactive&q;:false,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;division&q;:&q;FC&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}},{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-1383&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;BRIC Breaker&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/profile/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;BRICBreaker&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;blog&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1488390240184,&q;topics&q;:[&q;investing&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;washington&q;,&q;advisor-network&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;etfs&q;,&q;lifestyle&q;,&q;real-estate&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;powering-productivity&q;],&q;recentFlag&q;:false,&q;recentActivityCount&q;:29,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447771380000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:7,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-1383&q;,&q;primaryContributor&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/20560&q;,&q;primaryContributorData&q;:{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/20560&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Kenneth Rapoza&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-136x136.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-40x40.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2016/05/Kenneth-Rapoza_avatar_1462203654-62x62.jpg&q;}],&q;blog&q;:false,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I cover business and investing in emerging markets.&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;I&s;ve written about Brazil pre-Lula and post-Lula and spent the last five years covering all aspects of the country for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones. Meanwhile, for an undetermined amount of time, and with a little help from my friends, I will be parachuting primarily into Brazil, Russia, India and China. But will also be on the look out for interesting business stories and investing ideas throughout the emerging markets.&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false},&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/12liUla&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;kenrapozablog&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1299169887000,&q;slug&q;:&q;kenrapoza&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;BRICBreaker&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Kenneth Rapoza&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/889667668785156096/UErVa4Pv.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Twitter account for Forbes&s; daily emerging markets coverage, namely #Brazil #Russia #India #China. Jet-lagged journalist allowed to opine. Ex-WSJ in Sao Paulo.&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1314068497000,&q;location&q;:&q;New York, NY&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;https://t.co/pckxoQvX8t&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/#24918a2e7d9e&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…&q;,&q;verified&q;:false},&q;inactive&q;:false,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}}],&q;channelSection&q;:[{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_1&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_1&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_2&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;}],&q;slug&q;:&q;BRIC Breaker&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;sitePage&q;:&q;forbes.com/investing/blogs/kenrapoza/index.html&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;vestPocketList&q;:[{&q;type&q;:&q;slide&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/pictures/mlj45jggj/1-detroit/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/026M72T8ElbzS/&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;The 10 Most Dangerous U.S. Cities&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndSlideId/blog/slide/986-6336&q;,&q;count&q;:36851,&q;reason&q;:&q;MP-G&q;},{&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizryan/2018/02/12/ten-things-only-lousy-managers-say-2/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/dam/imageserve/1022439613/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Ten Things Only Lousy Managers Say&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/2989-32902&q;,&q;count&q;:0,&q;reason&q;:&q;FB&q;}],&q;generatedId&q;:&q;eglg45ifgel&q;,&q;manualDescription&q;:&q;Barclays thinks that the flooding impact alone could damage oil supply, as well as port facilities, and its impact is likely to be worse than the market is currently assuming.&q;,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;vestPocketPosition&q;:6,&q;siteSlug&q;:&q;kenrapoza&q;,&q;preview&q;:false,&q;showComments&q;:true,&q;syndication&q;:{&q;yahoo&q;:{&q;sentFlag&q;:true}},&q;tickers&q;:[&q;NYSE:OIL&q;,&q;NYSE:DIG&q;,&q;NYSE:SPY&q;,&q;NYSE:SDS&q;,&q;NYSE:COP&q;],&q;timestamp&q;:1503697308777,&q;statsEntities&q;:[{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Disaster_Accident&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Weather&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Business_Finance&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Atlantic hurricane season&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Hurricane Katrina&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Petroleum&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Geography of the United States&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Nature&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Banks - NEC&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Professional Information Services - NEC&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Television Broadcasting&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Digital Media Agencies&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;export infrastructure&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;oil supplies&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Gulf of Mexico&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;NaturalFeature&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Barclays Capital&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Getty Images&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;F. 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(Photo by NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Hurricane Harvey hits landfall tonight with two feet of rainfall expected along the Gulf coast of Texas. Barclays Capital thinks that the flooding damage alone is likely to be a major disruption for oil supplies, pushing gasoline prices higher in the near-term and adding to bullish sentiment for crude for the remainder of 2017.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Gasoline and diesel&a;nbsp;prices have already been moving higher in Texas. The storm has gone from a category two hurricane to a category three this afternoon, with sustained wind speeds upwards of 110 miles per hour expected. &a;nbsp;People are evacuating and gassing up while local refineries are being shut down in preparation for storm surge. As long as the impact of incremental fuel&a;nbsp;demand outweighs production, gasoline prices will continue to increase.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;strong&g;See: &l;a href=\&q;https://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Energy Disruptions Report&l;/a&g;&l;/strong&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;strong&g;&l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;National Hurricane Center&s;s Hurricane Harvey Page&l;/a&g;&l;/strong&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_41507382\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignright\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507382\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507382/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;Texas refineries in the line of fire. (Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;On the crude side, there are three potential impacts, Barclays analysts led by Michael Cohen wrote in a note to clients on Friday.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;First, production infrastructure will likely be temporarily shut in in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Some&a;nbsp;10% of the Gulf’s output (or around 150,000 barrels daily) has been shut in as of yesterday. &a;quot;We would not be surprised if more than half is shut as a precautionary measure through the weekend,&a;quot; Cohen says. Texas oil production facilities have learned from hurricane’s Katrina and Rita in 2005 and will likely rebound relatively quickly&a;nbsp;so long as workers can get to their jobs when the storm is over and flooding subsides.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;The second possible impact will be onshore, most importantly to the 1.4&a;nbsp;million barrels per day&a;nbsp;Eagle Ford shale basin. Given the crude oil price action on Friday, BarCap believes the market is not fully pricing in the impact on crude supplies that the hurricane is likely to have from inland and storm-surge related flooding. Oil futures rose around 43 cents to $47.86, significantly below the day&s;s high of $52.43 per barrel for the October oil futures contract.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The storm’s path will create high winds and localized flooding in the Eagle Ford shale basin, which means there&s;s no pumping going on there this weekend. Conoco Phillips and Marathon announced on Thursday that they were putting their Eagle Ford shale activities on pause. Other companies will likely follow.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The final impact of Harvey&a;nbsp;is likely to center around trade, BarCap believes.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;In the short term, pipelines that terminate in the Corpus Christi area, totaling roughly 1 million barrels per day could be delayed in their return due to flooding and the likelihood that companies will want to conduct inspections before flipping the switch to full-power service. There is also the chance that if the storm is as bad as The Weather Channel is letting on, flooding is seen&a;nbsp;delaying the crude export infrastructure projects currently being built in the Corpus Christi area.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_838956780\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignright\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-838956780\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/838956780/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;A man walks near the bay waters as they churn from approaching Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;For money makers: Barclays thinks that if refining and export infrastructure is delayed, it could widen the price spread between Brent and WTI oil. If production infrastructure is slow to return, it could tighten the spread between the two oil futures.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;&a;quot;Hurricane Harvey is likely to fuel bullish market sentiment through the first half of September,&a;quot; Cohen writes. Delays in production of Texas oil will impact the Energy Information Administration&s;s weekly oil market data for at least this coming month, thereby adding to bullish market sentiment.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Heavy winds and rainfall, high waves and severe flooding is expected to leave parts of southern Texas underwater for days, with the National Weather Service going so far as to say that it could leave some towns there &a;quot;uninhabitable for weeks or months.&a;quot; Although Harvey is much smaller than the category five hurricane Katrina that slammed Louisiana in 2005, at least 1,800 died from that storm 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