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alt="salon icon"/><h3 class="style__title___NfUxX">Up Next</h3><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/14/trumps-white-house-has-a-big-security-problem-jared-kushner/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Jared Kushner: Center of the storm</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Matthew Sheffield</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/14/intelligence-chiefs-to-senate-nope-trump-doesnt-care-about-russia/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Trump’s Kremlin-sized blind spot</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Heather Digby Parton</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/14/trumps-personal-lawyer-admits-he-paid-porn-star-stormy-daniels/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Trump’s lawyer paid porn star</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Jeremy Binckes</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/13/heritage-foundation-republicans-are-bankrupting-the-country/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Heritage Foundation: Fear the deficit</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Charlie May</span></span></div></a></div></div></div><div class="style__postCredits___nyp3l"><span class="style__caption___1GPjO">Flood water surround homes damaged by Hurricane Harvey, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2017, in Rockport, Texas. </span><span class="style__photoCredit___27qEr"><span data-comment="credit begin"></span>(Credit: <span>AP Photo/Eric Gay</span>)<span data-comment="credit end"></span></span></div></div></div><div class="style__articleBodyContent___2EFq5"><div class="style__postBodyTitleArea___21Hlg"><span data-comment="post title begin"></span><h1 class="style__title___2Rdst">What made the rain in Hurricane Harvey so extreme?</h1><span data-comment="post title end"></span><h2 class="style__deck___2Lb47">The rainfall from Harvey has now exceeded the amount from the previous record-bearer, Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978</h2><div class="style__addThisTop___2Wotf"><div class="addthis_inline_share_toolbox"></div></div><div class="style__metrics___26UhR"><div><div class="style__info___1RnIc"><span class="style__authorName___1Hdxd"><span><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="/writer/russ-schumacher">Russ Schumacher</a></span><span>, <span>The Conversation</span></span></span><span class="style__dateTime___2K_zH"><span class="style__date___3lcMr iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-08-30T16:17:21Z">2017-08-30T16:17:21Z</span><span class="style__dateSpacer___3PhQ-">•</span><span class="style__time___1B7Ka iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-08-30T16:17:21Z">2017-08-30T16:17:21Z</span></span></div><div class="style__socialComments___2xpOY"><span data-no-comments="1"></span><div class="style__social___evyKZ"></div></div></div></div><span data-comment="editorsNote begin"></span><div class="style__editorsNote___7rE5h"><p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. </div><span data-comment="editorsNote end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-1"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-0" class="style__firstParagraph___X_T4B"><p>Fifty inches of rain. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/27/texas-flood-disaster-harvey-has-unloaded-9-trillion-tons-of-water/?utm_term=.85f15b885293">Nine trillion gallons of water</a>. The Gulf Coast of Texas, and especially the Houston metropolitan area, has been inundated by rain produced by Hurricane Harvey. And as of this writing, the rain continues along a broad swath of the Gulf Coast, with a flood threat extending all the way east through New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle.</p></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div data-node="node-2" class=""><p>Even for one of the wettest and most flood-prone parts of the United States, the rainfall totals and flooding are breaking records. So, what has made Harvey such a prodigious rain producer?</p></div><div data-node="node-4" class=""><p><strong>A &quot;train&quot; of rainstorms</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-6" class=""><p>The amount of rain that falls at a given location can be boiled down to a surprisingly simple equation: The total precipitation equals the average rainfall rate, multiplied by the rainfall duration. In other words, the most rain falls where it <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0434%281996%29011%3C0560%3AFFFAIB%3E2.0.CO%3B2">rains the hardest for the longest.</a></p></div><div data-node="node-8" class=""><p>Tropical cyclones in general are <a href="http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1002/0470848944.hsa030">very efficient rain producers</a>, because they draw large quantities of water vapor into the atmosphere from a warm ocean. That moist air rises and the water vapor condenses, and a large fraction of that water falls as rain. Tropical cyclones can also last a long time; if their motion slows, then a particular region can experience that heavy rainfall for multiple days.</p></div><div data-node="node-10" class=""><p>Even compared to other tropical cyclones, the rain from Harvey has been very hard, and gone for a very long time. On Saturday evening (August 26) into Sunday morning (August 27), an intense band of storms developed to the east of Harvey’s center, and lined itself up right over Houston. This is a process known as “echo training,” in which it appears that the individual thunderstorm cells are like train cars that repeatedly pass over the same spot and bring with them <a href="http://naturalhazardscience.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-132">heavy precipitation.</a></p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-2"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__sponsoredStoriesMainSmall___1oW0H" data-obwidget-id="AR_8"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-3"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_1 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-4"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-12" class=""><p>This precipitation band was producing up to six inches of rain per hour — an extremely high rate — and it remained over the Houston metro area for several hours, with a couple more that followed immediately after. One location just southeast of downtown Houston recorded 13.84 inches in just three hours. These rains from Saturday night into Sunday morning initiated the massive flooding in the Houston metro area.</p></div><div data-node="node-14" class=""><p><strong>Relentless rainfall</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-16" class=""><p>Then, after this initial intense burst, there has been no respite. Usually, when a tropical cyclone turns poleward from the tropics toward the United States, it will interact with one or more midlatitude weather systems that will send the storm on its way after a day or two. But this August, the jet stream has been positioned well to the north of Texas, so none of these disturbances has approached, and Harvey’s center of circulation has barely moved since it made landfall. As a result, across the Texas (and now Louisiana) coast, there have been periods with intense rainfall (in more of the rainbands described above), along with lighter, but still substantial, accumulations.</p></div><div data-node="node-18" class=""><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash">#Harvey</a>&#x27;s movements over the past 60+ hours with this infrared animation from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GOES16?src=hash">#GOES16</a>. Latest forecast info @ <a href="https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG">https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG</a> <a href="https://t.co/2TbwzgYapm">pic.twitter.com/2TbwzgYapm</a></p>
<p>— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) <a href="https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/902263342244429825">August 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote></div><div data-node="node-20" class=""><p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charSet="utf-8"></script><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charSet="utf-8"></script>This combination of unusually high rain rates and long duration has resulted in a very large area with 30 to 45 inches of rain in a few days.</p></div><div data-node="node-22" class=""><p>Those of us who study extreme rainfall and flooding, and those who live in and around Houston, know this area is vulnerable to both very heavy rainfall and destructive and deadly floods. The previous standard-bearer for extreme rainfall in the region was Tropical Storm Allison in June 2001, which produced just over 40&quot; of rain around Houston. But the excessive accumulations were fairly localized. Major floods again occurred on Memorial Day in 2015, and on April 18-19, 2016.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-5"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="carambola style__default_hidden___35ppK style__visible_at_desktop___2NxE7 "><span data-comment="carambola begin"></span><span data-comment="carambola end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-6"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-7"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-24" class=""><p>In the April 2016 event, an intense line of overnight storms produced up to 15&quot; of rain in a few hours, similar to the “training” rainbands in Harvey. But with Harvey, the area covered by the heavy rainfall has been vastly larger, and the rain has persisted for days. For comparison, in just one day (ending Sunday morning, August 27, 2017) the area covered by rainfall from Harvey exceeding 16&quot; is several times larger than the entire April 2016 flood event, and at least two more days of similar accumulations have followed.  <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charSet="utf-8"></script></p></div><div data-node="node-26" class=""><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p>
Sadly, an update to this GIF. 18 Apr &#x27;16 (big Houston flood) &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash">#Harvey</a>, just the 24 hr ending Sun AM. So much more water, w/lots yet to come <a href="https://t.co/3cYMEyd9rw">pic.twitter.com/3cYMEyd9rw</a></p>
<p>— Russ Schumacher (@russ_schumacher) <a href="https://twitter.com/russ_schumacher/status/902016090326405121">August 28, 2017</a>
</p></blockquote></div><div data-node="node-28" class=""><p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charSet="utf-8"></script></p></div><div data-node="node-30" class=""><p><strong>Tornado risks</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-32" class=""><p>To make matters even worse, there were also numerous tornadoes reported as the rainbands came on shore. It’s fairly common to have tornadoes occur in association with landfalling hurricanes, but what struck me in this case was that tornado warnings were being issued in the same places that had just received massive amounts of rain.</p></div><div data-node="node-34" class=""><p>My research group has studied the challenges associated with multi-hazard situations, and specifically when the <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0084.1">threats of tornadoes and flash flooding occur</a> in the same place at the same time, as the protective responses to those hazards can be at odds with each other. For people to be under both a tornado and a flash-flood warning at the same time is surprisingly common — these overlapping warnings occur around 400 times per year on average.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-8"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div data-tout-mid-article-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___27f_5"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-9"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_2 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-10"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-36" class=""><p>But this situation was taken to a new extreme during Harvey, when tornado warnings were being issued at the same time that emergency officials were sending messages for people to go to their roofs for safety (rather than risk getting caught in the attic). The heartbreaking (but also heroic) video footage of water rescues speaks to the immense human impact of this multifaceted storm.</p></div><div data-node="node-38" class=""><p><strong>Spot-on forecast</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-40" class=""><p>One final remarkable aspect of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall is how accurate numerical weather prediction models — and the human forecasters who use them to make official forecasts — were at highlighting the incredible precipitation accumulations.</p></div><div data-node="node-42" class=""><p>Medium-range forecast models at least a week in advance were showing Harvey stalling out along the Texas coast and producing extreme rainfall. As the event neared, essentially every numerical model was showing accumulations over 25 inches. Often, when meteorologists see models making predictions of events that would be unprecedented, we are rather skeptical of that guidance, because there are no points of reference to compare to. But in this case, the models were in close agreement about the potential for a truly major event, and forecasters saw the gravity of the situation.</p></div><div data-node="node-44" class=""><p>The NOAA Weather Prediction Center, which makes official rainfall forecasts (and rarely includes extreme amounts), on Friday afternoon (August 25) predicted a broad swath of over 20 inches, with isolated areas up to 40&quot;. Never before had the Weather Prediction Center issued a “high risk” of excessive rainfall three days in advance, as usually the uncertainties with forecasting precipitation don’t allow enough confidence to do so. In fact, their protocol didn’t even allow for such an alert so far in advance! But for Harvey’s rainfall, they did this on consecutive days, and with high accuracy, because of the expected extremity of the event. (The primary errors in the rainfall forecasts in advance of the storm is that they placed the maxima a bit southwest of Houston, instead of centered over Houston.)</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-11"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-12"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div data-tout-player-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___3BAqz"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-13"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-46" class=""><figure class="align-center "></figure></div><div data-node="node-48" class=""><p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83137/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"/>One of the fascinating aspects of studying extreme rainfall and flash floods is the wide variety of storm systems that can produce heavy rain, and trying to figure out how the ingredients came together in each of those diverse situations to inform and improve future forecasting. For Hurricane Harvey, researchers and forecasters will be analyzing the ingredients that led to this record-setting flood for many years to come.</p></div><div data-node="node-50" class=""><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/russ-schumacher-403970">Russ Schumacher</a>, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/colorado-state-university-1267">Colorado State University</a></em></p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__rightRailMain___2SoC6"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:300px;height:600px"></div></div><div class="style__rightRailMeasuredPartMain___1O5oi"></div></div><div class="style__paginationContainer___OH6py"></div><div class="style__returnHomeContainer___1JOWZ"><a class="style__button___N4bTp" href="/">Return To Home Page</a></div><div class="style__associatedTopicsBackground___3u3kz"><div class="style__associatedTopicsWrapper___2l-_A"><div 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The Gulf Coast of Texas, and especially the Houston metropolitan area, has been inundated by rain produced by Hurricane Harvey. And as of this writing, the rain continues along a broad swath of the Gulf Coast, with a flood threat extending all the way east through New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven for one of the wettest and most flood-prone parts of the United States, the rainfall totals and flooding are breaking records. So, what has made Harvey such a prodigious rain producer?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eA \"train\" of rainstorms\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe amount of rain that falls at a given location can be boiled down to a surprisingly simple equation: The total precipitation equals the average rainfall rate, multiplied by the rainfall duration. In other words, the most rain falls where it \u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0434%281996%29011%3C0560%3AFFFAIB%3E2.0.CO%3B2\"\u003erains the hardest for the longest.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTropical cyclones in general are \u003ca href=\"http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1002/0470848944.hsa030\"\u003every efficient rain producers\u003c/a\u003e, because they draw large quantities of water vapor into the atmosphere from a warm ocean. That moist air rises and the water vapor condenses, and a large fraction of that water falls as rain. Tropical cyclones can also last a long time; if their motion slows, then a particular region can experience that heavy rainfall for multiple days.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven compared to other tropical cyclones, the rain from Harvey has been very hard, and gone for a very long time. On Saturday evening (August 26) into Sunday morning (August 27), an intense band of storms developed to the east of Harvey’s center, and lined itself up right over Houston. This is a process known as “echo training,” in which it appears that the individual thunderstorm cells are like train cars that repeatedly pass over the same spot and bring with them \u003ca href=\"http://naturalhazardscience.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-132\"\u003eheavy precipitation.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis precipitation band was producing up to six inches of rain per hour — an extremely high rate — and it remained over the Houston metro area for several hours, with a couple more that followed immediately after. One location just southeast of downtown Houston recorded 13.84 inches in just three hours. These rains from Saturday night into Sunday morning initiated the massive flooding in the Houston metro area.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRelentless rainfall\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThen, after this initial intense burst, there has been no respite. Usually, when a tropical cyclone turns poleward from the tropics toward the United States, it will interact with one or more midlatitude weather systems that will send the storm on its way after a day or two. But this August, the jet stream has been positioned well to the north of Texas, so none of these disturbances has approached, and Harvey’s center of circulation has barely moved since it made landfall. As a result, across the Texas (and now Louisiana) coast, there have been periods with intense rainfall (in more of the rainbands described above), along with lighter, but still substantial, accumulations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\"\u003eWatch \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash\"\u003e#Harvey\u003c/a\u003e's movements over the past 60+ hours with this infrared animation from \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GOES16?src=hash\"\u003e#GOES16\u003c/a\u003e. Latest forecast info @ \u003ca href=\"https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG\"\u003ehttps://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG\u003c/a\u003e \u003ca href=\"https://t.co/2TbwzgYapm\"\u003epic.twitter.com/2TbwzgYapm\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/902263342244429825\"\u003eAugust 28, 2017\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"\u003e\u003c/script\u003e\u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"\u003e\u003c/script\u003eThis combination of unusually high rain rates and long duration has resulted in a very large area with 30 to 45 inches of rain in a few days.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThose of us who study extreme rainfall and flooding, and those who live in and around Houston, know this area is vulnerable to both very heavy rainfall and destructive and deadly floods. The previous standard-bearer for extreme rainfall in the region was Tropical Storm Allison in June 2001, which produced just over 40\" of rain around Houston. But the excessive accumulations were fairly localized. Major floods again occurred on Memorial Day in 2015, and on April 18-19, 2016.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the April 2016 event, an intense line of overnight storms produced up to 15\" of rain in a few hours, similar to the “training” rainbands in Harvey. But with Harvey, the area covered by the heavy rainfall has been vastly larger, and the rain has persisted for days. For comparison, in just one day (ending Sunday morning, August 27, 2017) the area covered by rainfall from Harvey exceeding 16\" is several times larger than the entire April 2016 flood event, and at least two more days of similar accumulations have followed.  \u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"\u003e\u003c/script\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\nSadly, an update to this GIF. 18 Apr '16 (big Houston flood) \u0026 \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash\"\u003e#Harvey\u003c/a\u003e, just the 24 hr ending Sun AM. So much more water, w/lots yet to come \u003ca href=\"https://t.co/3cYMEyd9rw\"\u003epic.twitter.com/3cYMEyd9rw\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e— Russ Schumacher (@russ_schumacher) \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/russ_schumacher/status/902016090326405121\"\u003eAugust 28, 2017\u003c/a\u003e\n\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cscript src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"\u003e\u003c/script\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTornado risks\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo make matters even worse, there were also numerous tornadoes reported as the rainbands came on shore. It’s fairly common to have tornadoes occur in association with landfalling hurricanes, but what struck me in this case was that tornado warnings were being issued in the same places that had just received massive amounts of rain.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMy research group has studied the challenges associated with multi-hazard situations, and specifically when the \u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0084.1\"\u003ethreats of tornadoes and flash flooding occur\u003c/a\u003e in the same place at the same time, as the protective responses to those hazards can be at odds with each other. For people to be under both a tornado and a flash-flood warning at the same time is surprisingly common — these overlapping warnings occur around 400 times per year on average.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut this situation was taken to a new extreme during Harvey, when tornado warnings were being issued at the same time that emergency officials were sending messages for people to go to their roofs for safety (rather than risk getting caught in the attic). The heartbreaking (but also heroic) video footage of water rescues speaks to the immense human impact of this multifaceted storm.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSpot-on forecast\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOne final remarkable aspect of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall is how accurate numerical weather prediction models — and the human forecasters who use them to make official forecasts — were at highlighting the incredible precipitation accumulations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMedium-range forecast models at least a week in advance were showing Harvey stalling out along the Texas coast and producing extreme rainfall. As the event neared, essentially every numerical model was showing accumulations over 25 inches. Often, when meteorologists see models making predictions of events that would be unprecedented, we are rather skeptical of that guidance, because there are no points of reference to compare to. But in this case, the models were in close agreement about the potential for a truly major event, and forecasters saw the gravity of the situation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe NOAA Weather Prediction Center, which makes official rainfall forecasts (and rarely includes extreme amounts), on Friday afternoon (August 25) predicted a broad swath of over 20 inches, with isolated areas up to 40\". Never before had the Weather Prediction Center issued a “high risk” of excessive rainfall three days in advance, as usually the uncertainties with forecasting precipitation don’t allow enough confidence to do so. In fact, their protocol didn’t even allow for such an alert so far in advance! But for Harvey’s rainfall, they did this on consecutive days, and with high accuracy, because of the expected extremity of the event. (The primary errors in the rainfall forecasts in advance of the storm is that they placed the maxima a bit southwest of Houston, instead of centered over Houston.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cfigure class=\"align-center \"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83137/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" /\u003eOne of the fascinating aspects of studying extreme rainfall and flash floods is the wide variety of storm systems that can produce heavy rain, and trying to figure out how the ingredients came together in each of those diverse situations to inform and improve future forecasting. For Hurricane Harvey, researchers and forecasters will be analyzing the ingredients that led to this record-setting flood for many years to come.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/profiles/russ-schumacher-403970\"\u003eRuss Schumacher\u003c/a\u003e, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://theconversation.com/institutions/colorado-state-university-1267\"\u003eColorado State University\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n","editorsNote":"\u003cp\u003eThis article was originally published on \u003ca href=\"http://theconversation.com\"\u003eThe Conversation\u003c/a\u003e. ","pullQuote":"","socialMetas":{"twitter:title":"What made the rain in Hurricane Harvey so extreme?","twitter:description":"The rainfall from Harvey has now exceeded the amount from the previous record-bearer, Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978","twitter:image":"https://media.salon.com/2017/08/AP_17238776073139-1024x527.jpg","twitter:site":"@Salon","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:creator":"@Salon","og:title":"What made the rain in Hurricane Harvey so extreme?","og:site_name":"Salon","og:description":"The rainfall from Harvey has now exceeded the amount from the previous record-bearer, Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978","og:image":"http://media.salon.com/2017/08/harvey2.jpg","og:url":"https://www.salon.com/2017/08/30/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme_partner/","og:locale":"en_US","og:type":"article","article:published_time":"2017-08-30 12:17:21","article:modified_time":"2017-08-30 17:21:26","article:author":false,"article:publisher":"120680396518","article:section":"Politics","article:tag":["Hurricane Harvey","precipitation","rainfall","Texas","The Conversation","Tropical Storm Harvey","Weather","News"],"fb:pages":["120680396518"]},"slug":"what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme_partner","type":"post","mimeType":"","status":"publish","priority":"4","writers":[{"id":14814435,"name":"Russ Schumacher","slug":"russ-schumacher","shortBio":"","longBio":"","image":null,"facebookURL":false,"twitterHandle":false}],"topics":[{"id":156059,"name":"Hurricane Harvey","slug":"hurricane-harvey","description":"","count":127},{"id":133414,"name":"precipitation","slug":"precipitation","description":"","count":3},{"id":116082,"name":"rainfall","slug":"rainfall","description":"","count":16},{"id":146,"name":"Texas","slug":"texas","description":"","count":1018},{"id":143564,"name":"The Conversation","slug":"the_conversation","description":"","count":1197},{"id":156162,"name":"Tropical Storm Harvey","slug":"tropical-storm-harvey","description":"","count":11},{"id":14565,"name":"Weather","slug":"weather","description":"","count":147}],"squibs":["video"],"source":{"name":"The Conversation","label":"The Conversation","link":""},"datePublished":"2017-08-30T16:17:21","dateUpdated":"2017-08-30T21:21:26","title":"What made the rain in Hurricane Harvey so extreme?","titlePlain":"What made the rain in Hurricane Harvey so extreme?","coverline":"what made harvey so extreme? 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