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<article class="article-main post-1254385 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-internationaal post_source-bi-feed" itemtype="http://schema.org/NewsArticle" itemscope="">
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                <meta itemprop="description" content="Goldman Sachs has cut its third-quarter GDP forecast following Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma."/>

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			<h1 class="entry-title" itemprop="headline">Hurricanes Irma and Harvey cause Goldman Sachs to slash its outlook for the US economy</h1>
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				<time class="updated" datetime="2017-09-13T03:12:00+00:00">13 Sep 2017</time>
									  
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Hurricane Irma has affected more than 6% of the population of the US, making it the 10th-most widespread natural disaster in the nation's history.</p></div></picture>
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<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  Goldman Sachs has cut its third-quarter <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/GDP">GDP</a> forecast following a pair of  catastrophic hurricanes.</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  The firm now sees GDP expanding by 2% during the period, down 0.8  percentage points from its previous forecast.</p><script type="text/javascript">
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<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  Goldman currently estimates that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/hurricane-irma-2017">Hurricane Irma</a> will  result in $30 billion in total losses, adding to the $85 billion  of damage already caused by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/harvey-2017">Hurricane Harvey</a>, which  rocked the city of Houston last month.</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  &#8220;The uncertainty around all of these figures is high, but there  is little doubt that the combined impact of Harvey and Irma will  be particularly severe,&#8221; Spencer Hill, an economist at Goldman,  wrote in a client note. &#8220;We continue to expect a sizeable drag  from hurricanes on Q3 growth.&#8221;</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  One way that Goldman measures how a natural disaster will affect  economic growth is by assessing the share of the population  that&#8217;s ultimately impacted. At present time, Hurricane Irma has  affected 6.1% of the populace, making it the 10th-most impactful  natural disaster in US history by this measure. That makes Irma&#8217;s  effects even more widespread than Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and  last month&#8217;s Hurricane Harvey.</p>
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<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  &#8220;While property losses and evacuations do not directly enter the  GDP accounting, major hurricanes and natural disasters have  nonetheless been associated with a near-term slowdown in many  major growth indicators,&#8221; Hill wrote. &#8220;We believe the huge  property losses and relatively broad-based societal footprints of  Hurricanes Harvey and Irma suggest a relatively large impact on  near-term growth.&#8221;</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  So which areas will be most adversely affected? Goldman predicts  that consumption, inventories, housing, and the energy sector  will suffer the most.</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  For energy in particular, the post-hurricane implications for oil  demand could reduce GDP. Meanwhile, the sheer number of people  impacted by both disasters will surely weigh on consumption, the  firm says, highlighting that just five out of 403 <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/WMT-Quote">Walmart</a> stores in Florida  were open on Monday morning.</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin weighed in on the potential GDP  effect in an <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/12/treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-our-hope-is-to-reach-bipartisan-deal-on-taxes.html">  interview with CNBC</a> on Tuesday, agreeing that the measure  will take a hit in the short run, but argued that &#8220;we will make  it up in the long run as we rebuild.&#8221;</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  As more information comes in, keep in mind that Goldman&#8217;s GDP  forecast is a moving target. Its estimates and inputs could  change at any time, most notably if damage totals shift in any  meaningful way.</p>
<p xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">  In their words: &#8220;If Irma&#8217;s damages are significantly higher &#8211; or  if Florida flooding continues to weigh on consumer spending and  housing/investment activity into late September and October &#8211; we  would expect additional downside to near-term growth.&#8221;</p>
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