<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><base href="/"><title>Hurricane Harvey Energy Crisis Could Be Nightmare For U.S. Economy</title><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1,user-scalable=no"><link rel="canonical" itemprop="url" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy/"><script>!function(e){function n(r){if(t[r])return t[r].exports;var o=t[r]={i:r,l:!1,exports:{}};return e[r].call(o.exports,o,o.exports,n),o.l=!0,o.exports}var r=window.webpackJsonp;window.webpackJsonp=function(t,c,a){for(var i,u,f,s=0,d=[];s<t.length;s++)u=t[s],o[u]&&d.push(o[u][0]),o[u]=0;for(i in c)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(c,i)&&(e[i]=c[i]);for(r&&r(t,c,a);d.length;)d.shift()();if(a)for(s=0;s<a.length;s++)f=n(n.s=a[s]);return f};var t={},o={6:0};n.e=function(e){function 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The combination of low crude oil prices and high gasoline prices could be a worst case scenario for the U.S. economy." itemprop="description"><meta name="keywords" content="" itemprop="keywords"><meta name="author" content="Ellen R. Wald" itemprop="author"><meta property="og:title" content="Hurricane Harvey Energy Crisis Could Be Nightmare For U.S. Economy"><meta property="og:image" content="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/600x315/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839564124%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"><meta property="og:updated_time" content="2017-09-01T11:17:10-04:00"><meta property="og:url" content="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy/"><meta property="og:description" content="Twenty-two percent of U.S. oil refining is offline due to Hurricane Harvey. 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		<div _ngcontent-c31="" class="fs-text-xs" innerhtml="<span class=&quot;tweet_quote&quot;> <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;amp;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time.&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;>Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.<span></span></a></span>"><span class="tweet_quote"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time." target="_blank">Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.<span></span></a></span></div>
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		<div _ngcontent-c31="" class="fs-text-xs" innerhtml="<span class=&quot;tweet_quote&quot;> <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;amp;text=the%20price%20of%20gasoline%20will%20rise%20while%20the%20price%20of%20crude%20drops%2C%20a%20nightmare%20scenario%20for%20the%20U.S.%20economy&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;>the price of products like gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy<span></span></a></span>"><span class="tweet_quote"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;text=the%20price%20of%20gasoline%20will%20rise%20while%20the%20price%20of%20crude%20drops%2C%20a%20nightmare%20scenario%20for%20the%20U.S.%20economy" target="_blank">the price of products like gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy<span></span></a></span></div>
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<div _ngcontent-c20="" innerhtml="<p>On Tuesday, August 29, over 26 inches of rain fell in Port Arthur, Texas. The 50,000 residents of that city, north and east of Houston, are suffering severe flooding and personal loss. Port Arthur is also the home of the <a href=&quot;http://kfdm.com/news/local/motiva-shuts-down-port-arthur-refinery&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>largest refinery</a> in the United States, <a href=&quot;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2016/09/15/saudi-arabia-is-buying-up-americas-oil-assets/&quot; target=&quot;_self&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot;>Motiva</a>, which has been shut down due to massive flooding. In addition, the nearby 
 <fbs-quotecard article-quote-card=&quot;&quot; ticker=&quot;VLO&quot; exchange=&quot;NYSE&quot; type=&quot;organization&quot; natural-id=&quot;fred/company/4570&quot; closing-price=&quot;93.0&quot; current-price=&quot;93.27&quot; link=&quot;/companies/valero-energy/&quot; name=&quot;Valero Energy&quot;> 
  <a href=&quot;/companies/valero-energy/&quot; target=&quot;_self&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Valero Energy</a> 
 </fbs-quotecard> and 
 <fbs-quotecard article-quote-card=&quot;&quot; ticker=&quot;XOM&quot; exchange=&quot;NYSE&quot; type=&quot;organization&quot; natural-id=&quot;fred/company/1530&quot; closing-price=&quot;76.21&quot; current-price=&quot;76.54&quot; link=&quot;/companies/exxon-mobil/&quot; name=&quot;ExxonMobil&quot;> 
  <a href=&quot;/companies/exxon-mobil/&quot; target=&quot;_self&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>ExxonMobil</a> 
 </fbs-quotecard> <a href=&quot;http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Harvey-forcing-Valero-refinery-shutdown-in-Port-12161510.php&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>refineries</a> were shut and the Colonial Pipeline (distributing refined products across the <a href=&quot;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Southeast</a>&amp;nbsp;and north to&amp;nbsp;<a href=&quot;http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/business/aroundregion/story/2017/aug/30/harvey-affects-pipeline-carries-most-tennesse/446214/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Tennessee</a>) has been disrupted. About 22%&amp;nbsp;of U.S. <a href=&quot;https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DId5DAGUQAAb82N.jpg:large&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>refining capacity</a> is offline due to the natural disaster. All told, it now appears that the impact Harvey will have on the energy industry is worse than expected and could very well, in a&amp;nbsp;worst case scenario, lead to a serious macro-economic problem.</p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_839564124&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
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    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>The&amp;nbsp;Marathon Texas City Refinery as rain from Hurricane Harvey floods a road on August 26, 2017 in Texas City, Texas.(BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)</p> 
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<p>There are two major categories of oil markets. There are the crude oil markets (WTI, Brent, etc.) and the downstream refined markets (gasoline, jet fuel, plastics and other petroleum products). Hurricane Harvey has created a situation in which the pricing of the two markets—which usually run fairly parallel in ordinary circumstances—are diverging significantly.</p> 
<p>However, now there is a serious disruption to the downstream refinery process and the transportation and distribution of refined products. Because refineries are down, there is nowhere for crude oil to go in the Southern&amp;nbsp;U.S. (there is low demand for crude) so the price of crude oil globally is dropping. At the same time, the disruption of refined product (there is low supply of refined product)<a href=&quot;https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1BA07E&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;> raises the price</a> of products like gasoline.</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<blockquote class=&quot;twitter-tweet&quot;> 
 <p dir=&quot;ltr&quot; lang=&quot;en&quot;>One of the most important charts about <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>#Harvey</a><br> It destroyed oil <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/hashtag/demand?src=hash&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>#demand</a> in PADD 3. Few months to recover.<br> See what <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ike?src=hash&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>#Ike</a> <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Katrina?src=hash&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>#Katrina</a> did <a href=&quot;https://t.co/d3jKDx9itF&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>pic.twitter.com/d3jKDx9itF</a></p> 
 <p>— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/902944439060049922&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>August 30, 2017</a></p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>As a result, gas prices are already <a href=&quot;https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-is-pushing-gasoline-prices-higher-even-as-oil-remains-cheap/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-low_harveygasprices-1145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&amp;amp;tid=sm_tw&amp;amp;utm_term=.046f966bae75&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>rising</a> across much of the U.S. If the refineries do not resume operations quickly and the transportation problems are not resolved, the price of gasoline could spike dramatically and stay high. Before the Hurricane, there was already a significant amount of gasoline in storage in the U.S. This storage will now be drawn down, which will result in higher prices. Before the Hurricane and at most times, U.S. refineries already operate at nearly full capacity&amp;nbsp;around the clock, so there will not be any spare volume after they reopen to recover from storage drawdowns. The longer the refinery outages last, the greater the chance that gas prices stay high longer.</p> 
<div class=&quot;vestpocket&quot; vest-pocket=&quot;&quot;></div> 
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    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>Marathon Petroleum Corp. signage is displayed outside the refinery ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Texas City, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. (F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)</p> 
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</div> 
<p>Tankers of gasoline and jet fuel are <a href=&quot;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>leaving Europe</a> and Asia for ports on the Atlantic and Pacific because of the market opportunity in the U.S. However, these tankers will take weeks, not days to arrive. The dispatch of these tankers is more an indicator of the likelihood of long-term disruptions than a sign of coming relief.</p> 
<p>When gas prices and other refined products become more expensive, the economy suffers. The cost of plastics and many chemical products become more expensive. It is more expensive to ship goods, so items like your groceries cost more. It becomes more expensive for you to buy a plane ticket for Thanksgiving, commute to work or pick up your daughter from ballet. <span class=&quot;tweet_quote&quot;> <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;amp;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time.&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.<span></span></a></span></p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_839993916&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignright&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839993916%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839993916%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
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    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>The refinery section of the Houston Ship Channel is seen as flood water rise on August 27, 2017 as Houston battles with tropical storm Harvey and resulting floods. (THOMAS B. SHEA/AFP/Getty Images)</p> 
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  </div> 
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</div> 
<p>Crude oil prices have been low since 2015, but the disruption of U.S. refining has caused crude oil prices to drop further. If the U.S. refining situation does not fully recover soon, the price of WTI crude oil&amp;nbsp;could continue to fall. This natural disaster is only adding to the already extreme oversupply of crude oil in the world, which could lead to a further divergence between crude and gasoline prices. When gasoline prices are high, the economy suffers. Without the saving grace of high crude oil prices buoying growth in the energy sector, the impact on U.S. economic growth could be severe.</p>"><p class="speakable-paragraph">On Tuesday, August 29, over 26 inches of rain fell in Port Arthur, Texas. The 50,000 residents of that city, north and east of Houston, are suffering severe flooding and personal loss. Port Arthur is also the home of the <a href="http://kfdm.com/news/local/motiva-shuts-down-port-arthur-refinery" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">largest refinery</a> in the United States, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2016/09/15/saudi-arabia-is-buying-up-americas-oil-assets/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer">Motiva</a>, which has been shut down due to massive flooding. In addition, the nearby 
 <fbs-quotecard article-quote-card="" ticker="VLO" exchange="NYSE" type="organization" natural-id="fred/company/4570" closing-price="93.0" current-price="93.27" link="/companies/valero-energy/" name="Valero Energy"> 
  <a href="/companies/valero-energy/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">Valero Energy</a> 
 </fbs-quotecard> and 
 <fbs-quotecard article-quote-card="" ticker="XOM" exchange="NYSE" type="organization" natural-id="fred/company/1530" closing-price="76.21" current-price="76.54" link="/companies/exxon-mobil/" name="ExxonMobil"> 
  <a href="/companies/exxon-mobil/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">ExxonMobil</a> 
 </fbs-quotecard> <a href="http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Harvey-forcing-Valero-refinery-shutdown-in-Port-12161510.php" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">refineries</a> were shut and the Colonial Pipeline (distributing refined products across the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Southeast</a>&nbsp;and north to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/business/aroundregion/story/2017/aug/30/harvey-affects-pipeline-carries-most-tennesse/446214/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tennessee</a>) has been disrupted. About 22%&nbsp;of U.S. <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DId5DAGUQAAb82N.jpg:large" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">refining capacity</a> is offline due to the natural disaster. All told, it now appears that the impact Harvey will have on the energy industry is worse than expected and could very well, in a&nbsp;worst case scenario, lead to a serious macro-economic problem.</p> 
<div id="attachment_839564124" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
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    <p class="wp-caption-text">The&nbsp;Marathon Texas City Refinery as rain from Hurricane Harvey floods a road on August 26, 2017 in Texas City, Texas.(BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)</p> 
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 </div> 
</div> 
<p>There are two major categories of oil markets. There are the crude oil markets (WTI, Brent, etc.) and the downstream refined markets (gasoline, jet fuel, plastics and other petroleum products). Hurricane Harvey has created a situation in which the pricing of the two markets—which usually run fairly parallel in ordinary circumstances—are diverging significantly.</p> 
<p>However, now there is a serious disruption to the downstream refinery process and the transportation and distribution of refined products. Because refineries are down, there is nowhere for crude oil to go in the Southern&nbsp;U.S. (there is low demand for crude) so the price of crude oil globally is dropping. At the same time, the disruption of refined product (there is low supply of refined product)<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1BA07E" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> raises the price</a> of products like gasoline.</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 <p dir="ltr" lang="en">One of the most important charts about <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">#Harvey</a><br> It destroyed oil <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/demand?src=hash" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">#demand</a> in PADD 3. Few months to recover.<br> See what <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ike?src=hash" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">#Ike</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Katrina?src=hash" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">#Katrina</a> did <a href="https://t.co/d3jKDx9itF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/d3jKDx9itF</a></p> 
 <p>— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) <a href="https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/902944439060049922" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">August 30, 2017</a></p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>As a result, gas prices are already <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-is-pushing-gasoline-prices-higher-even-as-oil-remains-cheap/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-low_harveygasprices-1145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&amp;tid=sm_tw&amp;utm_term=.046f966bae75" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">rising</a> across much of the U.S. If the refineries do not resume operations quickly and the transportation problems are not resolved, the price of gasoline could spike dramatically and stay high. Before the Hurricane, there was already a significant amount of gasoline in storage in the U.S. This storage will now be drawn down, which will result in higher prices. Before the Hurricane and at most times, U.S. refineries already operate at nearly full capacity&nbsp;around the clock, so there will not be any spare volume after they reopen to recover from storage drawdowns. The longer the refinery outages last, the greater the chance that gas prices stay high longer.</p> 
<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> 
<div id="attachment_41507384" class="wp-caption alignleft"> 
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    <p class="wp-caption-text">Marathon Petroleum Corp. signage is displayed outside the refinery ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Texas City, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. (F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Tankers of gasoline and jet fuel are <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">leaving Europe</a> and Asia for ports on the Atlantic and Pacific because of the market opportunity in the U.S. However, these tankers will take weeks, not days to arrive. The dispatch of these tankers is more an indicator of the likelihood of long-term disruptions than a sign of coming relief.</p> 
<p>When gas prices and other refined products become more expensive, the economy suffers. The cost of plastics and many chemical products become more expensive. It is more expensive to ship goods, so items like your groceries cost more. It becomes more expensive for you to buy a plane ticket for Thanksgiving, commute to work or pick up your daughter from ballet. <span class="tweet_quote"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&amp;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time." target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.<span></span></a></span></p> 
<div id="attachment_839993916" class="wp-caption alignright"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839993916%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839993916%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
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    <p class="wp-caption-text">The refinery section of the Houston Ship Channel is seen as flood water rise on August 27, 2017 as Houston battles with tropical storm Harvey and resulting floods. (THOMAS B. SHEA/AFP/Getty Images)</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Crude oil prices have been low since 2015, but the disruption of U.S. refining has caused crude oil prices to drop further. If the U.S. refining situation does not fully recover soon, the price of WTI crude oil&nbsp;could continue to fall. This natural disaster is only adding to the already extreme oversupply of crude oil in the world, which could lead to a further divergence between crude and gasoline prices. When gasoline prices are high, the economy suffers. Without the saving grace of high crude oil prices buoying growth in the energy sector, the impact on U.S. economic growth could be severe.</p></div>
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	</app-root><script id="ng-templates-state" type="application/json">{&q;environmentName&q;:&q;prod&q;,&q;is_mobile&q;:false,&q;/forbesapi/content/uri.json?shortcodes=true&a;slides=true&a;type=ng&a;tickers=true&a;bvallpages=true&a;autovpslider=true&a;stream=true&a;compressimages=true&a;mobile=false&a;prgsmobileads=false&a;relativeVideo=true&a;videoplayertype=brightcove_perform_with_keyvalues&a;swimlane=&a;uri=http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy/&q;:{&q;content&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;content_59a6fa5b64aaf97b128dd513&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/4357-1034&q;,&q;source&q;:&q;blogs&q;,&q;author&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Hurricane Harvey Energy Crisis Could Be Nightmare For U.S. Economy&q;,&q;date&q;:1504117680000,&q;body&q;:&q;&l;p&g;On Tuesday, August 29, over 26 inches of rain fell in Port Arthur, Texas. The 50,000 residents of that city, north and east of Houston, are suffering severe flooding and personal loss. Port Arthur is also the home of the &l;a href=\&q;http://kfdm.com/news/local/motiva-shuts-down-port-arthur-refinery\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;largest refinery&l;/a&g; in the United States, &l;a href=\&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2016/09/15/saudi-arabia-is-buying-up-americas-oil-assets/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q;&g;Motiva&l;/a&g;, which has been shut down due to massive flooding. In addition, the nearby [entity display=\&q;Valero Energy\&q; type=\&q;organization\&q; subtype=\&q;company\&q; active=\&q;true\&q; activated=\&q;true\&q; deactivated=\&q;false\&q; key=\&q;valero-energy\&q; ticker=\&q;VLO\&q; exchange=\&q;NYSE\&q; natural_id=\&q;fred/company/4570\&q;]Valero Energy[/entity] and [entity display=\&q;ExxonMobil\&q; type=\&q;organization\&q; subtype=\&q;company\&q; active=\&q;true\&q; activated=\&q;true\&q; deactivated=\&q;false\&q; key=\&q;exxon-mobil\&q; ticker=\&q;XOM\&q; exchange=\&q;NYSE\&q; natural_id=\&q;fred/company/1530\&q;]ExxonMobil[/entity] &l;a href=\&q;http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Harvey-forcing-Valero-refinery-shutdown-in-Port-12161510.php\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;refineries&l;/a&g; were shut and the Colonial Pipeline (distributing refined products across the &l;a href=\&q;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Southeast&l;/a&g;&a;nbsp;and north to&a;nbsp;&l;a href=\&q;http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/business/aroundregion/story/2017/aug/30/harvey-affects-pipeline-carries-most-tennesse/446214/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Tennessee&l;/a&g;) has been disrupted. About 22%&a;nbsp;of U.S. &l;a href=\&q;https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DId5DAGUQAAb82N.jpg:large\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;refining capacity&l;/a&g; is offline due to the natural disaster. All told, it now appears that the impact Harvey will have on the energy industry is worse than expected and could very well, in a&a;nbsp;worst case scenario, lead to a serious macro-economic problem.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_839564124\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839564124\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839564124/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;636\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; The&a;nbsp;Marathon Texas City Refinery as rain from Hurricane Harvey floods a road on August 26, 2017 in Texas City, Texas.(BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]\r\n\r\nThere are two major categories of oil markets. There are the crude oil markets (WTI, Brent, etc.) and the downstream refined markets (gasoline, jet fuel, plastics and other petroleum products). Hurricane Harvey has created a situation in which the pricing of the two markets&a;mdash;which usually run fairly parallel in ordinary circumstances&a;mdash;are diverging significantly.\r\n\r\nHowever, now there is a serious disruption to the downstream refinery process and the transportation and distribution of refined products. Because refineries are down, there is nowhere for crude oil to go in the Southern&a;nbsp;U.S. (there is low demand for crude) so the price of crude oil globally is dropping. At the same time, the disruption of refined product (there is low supply of refined product)&l;a href=\&q;https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1BA07E\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g; raises the price&l;/a&g; of products like gasoline.\r\n&l;/p&g;&l;blockquote class=\&q;twitter-tweet\&q;&g;\r\n&l;p dir=\&q;ltr\&q; lang=\&q;en\&q;&g;One of the most important charts about &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;#Harvey&l;/a&g;\r\nIt destroyed oil &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/demand?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;#demand&l;/a&g; in PADD 3. Few months to recover.\r\nSee what &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ike?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;#Ike&l;/a&g; &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Katrina?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;#Katrina&l;/a&g; did &l;a href=\&q;https://t.co/d3jKDx9itF\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;pic.twitter.com/d3jKDx9itF&l;/a&g;&l;/p&g;\r\n&a;mdash; Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/902944439060049922\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;August 30, 2017&l;/a&g;&l;/blockquote&g;\r\nAs a result, gas prices are already &l;a href=\&q;https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-is-pushing-gasoline-prices-higher-even-as-oil-remains-cheap/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-low_harveygasprices-1145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&a;amp;tid=sm_tw&a;amp;utm_term=.046f966bae75\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;rising&l;/a&g; across much of the U.S. If the refineries do not resume operations quickly and the transportation problems are not resolved, the price of gasoline could spike dramatically and stay high. Before the Hurricane, there was already a significant amount of gasoline in storage in the U.S. This storage will now be drawn down, which will result in higher prices. Before the Hurricane and at most times, U.S. refineries already operate at nearly full capacity&a;nbsp;around the clock, so there will not be any spare volume after they reopen to recover from storage drawdowns. The longer the refinery outages last, the greater the chance that gas prices stay high longer.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_41507384\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;alignleft\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507384\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507384/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; Marathon Petroleum Corp. signage is displayed outside the refinery ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Texas City, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. (F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)[/caption]\r\n\r\nTankers of gasoline and jet fuel are &l;a href=\&q;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;leaving Europe&l;/a&g; and Asia for ports on the Atlantic and Pacific because of the market opportunity in the U.S. However, these tankers will take weeks, not days to arrive. The dispatch of these tankers is more an indicator of the likelihood of long-term disruptions than a sign of coming relief.\r\n\r\nWhen gas prices and other refined products become more expensive, the economy suffers. The cost of plastics and many chemical products become more expensive. It is more expensive to ship goods, so items like your groceries cost more. It becomes more expensive for you to buy a plane ticket for Thanksgiving, commute to work or pick up your daughter from ballet. [tweet_quote display=\&q;Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.\&q;]Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.[/tweet_quote]&l;/p&g;\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_839993916\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;alignright\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839993916\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839993916/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; The refinery section of the Houston Ship Channel is seen as flood water rise on August 27, 2017 as Houston battles with tropical storm Harvey and resulting floods. (THOMAS B. SHEA/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]\r\n\r\nCrude oil prices have been low since 2015, but the disruption of U.S. refining has caused crude oil prices to drop further. If the U.S. refining situation does not fully recover soon, the price of WTI crude oil&a;nbsp;could continue to fall. This natural disaster is only adding to the already extreme oversupply of crude oil in the world, which could lead to a further divergence between crude and gasoline prices. When gasoline prices are high, the economy suffers. Without the saving grace of high crude oil prices buoying growth in the energy sector, the impact on U.S. economic growth could be severe.\r\n\r\n&l;!--nextpage--&g;\r\nEven global crude producers are suffering from this storm. Saudi Aramco, which owns the Motiva refinery, has not been able to distribute crude there. Other global crude producers have tankers waiting in the Gulf of Mexico for the &l;a href=\&q;https://www.marketplace.org/2017/08/29/economy/port-corpus-christi-remains-closed-there-hope\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;ports&l;/a&g; to reopen.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_840549116\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-840549116\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/840549116/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;638\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; A refinery is seen during the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey on August 29, 2017 in Deer Park, Texas. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]\r\n\r\nMany of us have been &l;a href=\&q;http://www.ellenrwald.com/oil-export-ban/refineries-not-exports-is-whats-needed/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;warning&l;/a&g; for years now that the U.S. is in dire need of improved and expanded refinery and pipeline infrastructure. Refineries exist across the U.S., in the Northeast, the Midwest and the West Coast, but so much volume is now concentrated in the Gulf Coast region. Moreover, the U.S. does not have spare capacity to be able to ramp up refining in other regions in times of necessity (like now and after recovery from the storm). Nor does the U.S. have sufficient refined product pipelines to divert product from a refinery in one region to a different market in need of an influx. The market would likely build these capabilities if the &l;a href=\&q;http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/312244-increased-energy-security-will-strengthen-us-foreign\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;permitting process&l;/a&g; were simplified.\r\n\r\nIn the current situation, given the extreme and unexpected disruptions created by Hurricane Harvey and given the downstream refining infrastructure limitations in the U.S., we must hope for a quick return to normal operations. Otherwise, [tweet_quote display=\&q;the price of gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy\&q;]the price of products like gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy[/tweet_quote] .&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Twenty-two percent of U.S. oil refining is offline due to Hurricane Harvey. The combination of low crude oil prices and high gasoline prices could be a worst case scenario for the U.S. economy.&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839564124/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;storyType&q;:&q;post&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy/&q;,&q;comments&q;:[],&q;visible&q;:true,&q;authors&q;:[{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/2008680&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-136x136.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-62x62.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-40x40.png&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;/sites/ellenrwald/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;EnergzdEconomy&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;linkedIn&q;:&q;https://www.linkedin.com/in/ellen-r-wald-ph-d-ba361498&q;,&q;email&q;:&q;ellenrwald@gmail.com&q;,&q;blog&q;:false,&q;timestamp&q;:1508122197968,&q;amazon&q;:&q;https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Inc-Arabian-Kingdoms-Pursuit/dp/168177660X&q;,&q;webSite&q;:&q;http://www.ellenrwald.com&q;,&q;blogName&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;topics&q;:[&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;international&q;],&q;description&q;:&q;I’m an energy historian writing about how governments and energy businesses interact globally.  My work looks at how policy, wars, diplomacy, the stock market, oil pricing, and innovation impact the future of energy.  I am a non-resident scholar at the Arabia Foundation, an independent think tank in D.C., consult for financial and PR firms, write a column for investing.com, teach Middle East history and policy at Jacksonville University, and root for the New York Giants.  I’ve been featured in BBC History Magazine as an expert on oil pricing and held the Majewski Fellowship in Economic Geology at the American Heritage Center and have held academic appointments at Boston University, University of Georgia, and Cambridge U.  My book, Saudi, Inc., will be published (Pegasus Books) will be published in 2018 in anticipation of the Aramco IPO.  Contact me at www.ellenrwald.com.&q;,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-4357&q;,&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/23eMNTz&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1459907930000,&q;slug&q;:&q;ellenrwald&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:true,&q;sigfile&q;:&q;&l;em&g;Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian &a; consultant on geopolitics &a; energy. She is a Non-Resident Scholar at the Arabia Foundation. Her book,&l;a href=\&q;https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Inc-Arabian-Kingdoms-Pursuit/dp/168177660X\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q;&g; Saudi, Inc.&l;/a&g;, will be published in 2018.&l;/em&g;&q;,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;EnergzdEconomy&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Ellen R Wald Ph.D.🛢&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/803072685941067776/W-f9ZiEg.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Energy, geopolitics, NYGiants. Consultant, non-resident scholar @ArabiaFdn, columnist, Adjunct prof MidEast history. views my own. https://t.co/ULdaMXiARI&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1362527614000,&q;location&q;:&q;&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;https://t.co/91DCoEPntQ&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.ellenrwald.com&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;ellenrwald.com&q;,&q;verified&q;:false},&q;inactive&q;:true,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;division&q;:&q;FC&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}},{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-4357&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;http://blogs.forbes.com/ellenrwald/profile/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;EnergzdEconomy&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;linkedIn&q;:&q;https://www.linkedin.com/in/ellen-r-wald-ph-d-ba361498&q;,&q;blog&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1480095152000,&q;topics&q;:[&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;energy&q;,&q;business&q;],&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-4357&q;,&q;primaryContributor&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/2008680&q;,&q;primaryContributorData&q;:{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/2008680&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-136x136.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-40x40.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656.png&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-62x62.png&q;}],&q;blog&q;:false,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I cover energy and geopolitics with a Middle East and US focus.&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;I’m an energy historian writing about how governments and energy businesses interact globally.  My work looks at how policy, wars, diplomacy, the stock market, oil pricing, and innovation impact the future of energy.  I consult for financial and PR firms, write a column for Modern Trader, teach Middle East history and policy at Jacksonville University, and root for the New York Giants.  I’ve been featured in BBC History Magazine as an expert on oil pricing and held the Majewski Fellowship in Economic Geology at the American Heritage Center and have held academic appointments at Boston University, University of Georgia, and Cambridge U.  I am also finishing up a book about Saudi Arabia’s energy industry that explains how common misunderstandings about Saudi Arabia and Aramco hinder American financial and diplomatic decisions.  Contact me at www.ellenrwald.com.&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false},&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/23eMNTz&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1459893720000,&q;slug&q;:&q;ellenrwald&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:true,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;EnergzdEconomy&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Ellen R Wald Ph.D.🛢&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/803072685941067776/W-f9ZiEg.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Energy, geopolitics, NYGiants. 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Wald&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;},{&q;id&q;:&q;599f3b8a64aaf9435aebbb56&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/08/24/hurricane-survival-my-chainsaw-doesnt-run-on-solar-power/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/700153939/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Hurricane Survival: My Chainsaw Doesn&s;t Run On Solar Power&q;,&q;contentType&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;position&q;:1,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/4357-1012&q;,&q;authorImage&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ellenrwald/files/2016/04/Ellen-R.-Wald_avatar_1459958656-40x40.png&q;,&q;authorUrl&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;authorName&q;:&q;Ellen R. Wald&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;},{&q;id&q;:&q;59a444bd64aaf9435aebc7c4&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/clairepoole/2017/08/28/how-refiners-are-faring-from-the-ravages-of-hurricane-harvey/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/38502874/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;How Refiners Are Faring From The Ravages Of Hurricane Harvey&q;,&q;contentType&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;position&q;:2,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/4723-438&q;,&q;authorImage&q;:&q;http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/850a71461a0f4c358930bf42ee69e8ec?s=40&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;,&q;authorUrl&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/clairepoole/&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;authorName&q;:&q;Claire Poole&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;},{&q;type&q;:&q;slide&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/pictures/mlj45jggj/1-detroit/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/026M72T8ElbzS/&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;The 10 Most Dangerous U.S. Cities&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndSlideId/blog/slide/986-6336&q;,&q;count&q;:37057,&q;reason&q;:&q;MP-G&q;},{&q;type&q;:&q;blogslide&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/02/16/black-panther-breaks-its-first-box-office-records-with-25-2m-thursday/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/scottmendelson/files/2018/01/MV5BMjA5MjA0MjMwMV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMTUyNTQ5MjI@._V1_SX1500_CR001500999_AL_-1200x799.jpg&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Box Office: &s;Black Panther&s; Roars With Record-Breaking $25.2M Thursday&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/2595-47794&q;,&q;count&q;:159817,&q;reason&q;:&q;PV-D&q;}],&q;generatedId&q;:&q;hgik45edgh&q;,&q;manualDescription&q;:&q;Twenty-two percent of U.S. oil refining is offline due to Hurricane Harvey. 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Carter Smith&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;crude oil&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;petroleum products&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;United States&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Europe&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Continent&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;BLOOMBERG&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Gulf Coast&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Region&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;crude oil&a;nbsp;could&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;energy sector&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;oil markets&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Atlantic and Pacific&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas City&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;City&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Saudi Aramco&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.5},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;gas prices&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;ExxonMobil&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.5}],&q;entityFollowings&q;:[{&q;id&q;:&q;fred/company/4570&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;organization&q;,&q;height&q;:0,&q;width&q;:0,&q;length&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:&q;fred/company/1530&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;organization&q;,&q;height&q;:0,&q;width&q;:0,&q;length&q;:0}],&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;googleKeywords&q;:[&q;hurricane harvey&q;,&q; gasoline&q;,&q; oil&q;,&q; energy&q;],&q;writtenByForbesStaff&q;:false,&q;templateType&q;:&q;standard&q;,&q;enableSigfile&q;:true,&q;tweetQuotes&q;:[&q;&l;span class=\&q;tweet_quote\&q;&g; &l;a href=https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&a;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time. target=\&q;_blank\&q; data-track=\&q;article-tweet-quote\&q;&g;Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.&l;span&g;&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;/span&g;&q;,&q;&l;span class=\&q;tweet_quote\&q;&g; &l;a href=https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&a;text=the%20price%20of%20gasoline%20will%20rise%20while%20the%20price%20of%20crude%20drops%2C%20a%20nightmare%20scenario%20for%20the%20U.S.%20economy target=\&q;_blank\&q; data-track=\&q;article-tweet-quote\&q;&g;the price of products like gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy&l;span&g;&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;/span&g;&q;],&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;pages&q;:[&q;&l;p&g;On Tuesday, August 29, over 26 inches of rain fell in Port Arthur, Texas. The 50,000 residents of that city, north and east of Houston, are suffering severe flooding and personal loss. Port Arthur is also the home of the &l;a href=\&q;http://kfdm.com/news/local/motiva-shuts-down-port-arthur-refinery\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;largest refinery&l;/a&g; in the United States, &l;a href=\&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2016/09/15/saudi-arabia-is-buying-up-americas-oil-assets/\&q; target=\&q;_self\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q;&g;Motiva&l;/a&g;, which has been shut down due to massive flooding. In addition, the nearby \n &l;fbs-quotecard article-quote-card=\&q;\&q; ticker=\&q;VLO\&q; exchange=\&q;NYSE\&q; type=\&q;organization\&q; natural-id=\&q;fred/company/4570\&q; closing-price=\&q;93.0\&q; current-price=\&q;93.27\&q; link=\&q;/companies/valero-energy/\&q; name=\&q;Valero Energy\&q;&g; \n  &l;a href=\&q;/companies/valero-energy/\&q; target=\&q;_self\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Valero Energy&l;/a&g; \n &l;/fbs-quotecard&g; and \n &l;fbs-quotecard article-quote-card=\&q;\&q; ticker=\&q;XOM\&q; exchange=\&q;NYSE\&q; type=\&q;organization\&q; natural-id=\&q;fred/company/1530\&q; closing-price=\&q;76.21\&q; current-price=\&q;76.54\&q; link=\&q;/companies/exxon-mobil/\&q; name=\&q;ExxonMobil\&q;&g; \n  &l;a href=\&q;/companies/exxon-mobil/\&q; target=\&q;_self\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;ExxonMobil&l;/a&g; \n &l;/fbs-quotecard&g; &l;a href=\&q;http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Harvey-forcing-Valero-refinery-shutdown-in-Port-12161510.php\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;refineries&l;/a&g; were shut and the Colonial Pipeline (distributing refined products across the &l;a href=\&q;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Southeast&l;/a&g;&a;nbsp;and north to&a;nbsp;&l;a href=\&q;http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/business/aroundregion/story/2017/aug/30/harvey-affects-pipeline-carries-most-tennesse/446214/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Tennessee&l;/a&g;) has been disrupted. About 22%&a;nbsp;of U.S. &l;a href=\&q;https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DId5DAGUQAAb82N.jpg:large\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;refining capacity&l;/a&g; is offline due to the natural disaster. All told, it now appears that the impact Harvey will have on the energy industry is worse than expected and could very well, in a&a;nbsp;worst case scenario, lead to a serious macro-economic problem.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_839564124\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839564124\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839564124/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;636\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;The&a;nbsp;Marathon Texas City Refinery as rain from Hurricane Harvey floods a road on August 26, 2017 in Texas City, Texas.(BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;There are two major categories of oil markets. There are the crude oil markets (WTI, Brent, etc.) and the downstream refined markets (gasoline, jet fuel, plastics and other petroleum products). Hurricane Harvey has created a situation in which the pricing of the two markets—which usually run fairly parallel in ordinary circumstances—are diverging significantly.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;However, now there is a serious disruption to the downstream refinery process and the transportation and distribution of refined products. Because refineries are down, there is nowhere for crude oil to go in the Southern&a;nbsp;U.S. (there is low demand for crude) so the price of crude oil globally is dropping. At the same time, the disruption of refined product (there is low supply of refined product)&l;a href=\&q;https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1BA07E\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g; raises the price&l;/a&g; of products like gasoline.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;blockquote class=\&q;twitter-tweet\&q;&g; \n &l;p dir=\&q;ltr\&q; lang=\&q;en\&q;&g;One of the most important charts about &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Harvey?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;#Harvey&l;/a&g;&l;br /&g; It destroyed oil &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/demand?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;#demand&l;/a&g; in PADD 3. Few months to recover.&l;br /&g; See what &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ike?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;#Ike&l;/a&g; &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/hashtag/Katrina?src=hash\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;#Katrina&l;/a&g; did &l;a href=\&q;https://t.co/d3jKDx9itF\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;pic.twitter.com/d3jKDx9itF&l;/a&g;&l;/p&g; \n &l;p&g;— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/902944439060049922\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;August 30, 2017&l;/a&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;/blockquote&g; \n&l;p&g;As a result, gas prices are already &l;a href=\&q;https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-is-pushing-gasoline-prices-higher-even-as-oil-remains-cheap/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-low_harveygasprices-1145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&a;amp;tid=sm_tw&a;amp;utm_term=.046f966bae75\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;rising&l;/a&g; across much of the U.S. If the refineries do not resume operations quickly and the transportation problems are not resolved, the price of gasoline could spike dramatically and stay high. Before the Hurricane, there was already a significant amount of gasoline in storage in the U.S. This storage will now be drawn down, which will result in higher prices. Before the Hurricane and at most times, U.S. refineries already operate at nearly full capacity&a;nbsp;around the clock, so there will not be any spare volume after they reopen to recover from storage drawdowns. The longer the refinery outages last, the greater the chance that gas prices stay high longer.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_41507384\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignleft\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507384\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507384/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;Marathon Petroleum Corp. signage is displayed outside the refinery ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Texas City, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. (F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Tankers of gasoline and jet fuel are &l;a href=\&q;https://www.ft.com/content/9ccef8bc-8d7c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;leaving Europe&l;/a&g; and Asia for ports on the Atlantic and Pacific because of the market opportunity in the U.S. However, these tankers will take weeks, not days to arrive. The dispatch of these tankers is more an indicator of the likelihood of long-term disruptions than a sign of coming relief.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;When gas prices and other refined products become more expensive, the economy suffers. The cost of plastics and many chemical products become more expensive. It is more expensive to ship goods, so items like your groceries cost more. It becomes more expensive for you to buy a plane ticket for Thanksgiving, commute to work or pick up your daughter from ballet. &l;span class=\&q;tweet_quote\&q;&g; &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&a;amp;text=Typically%2C%20when%20gasoline%20prices%20are%20high%2C%20a%20saving%20grace%20is%20that%20the%20U.S.%20energy%20industry%20thrives.%20Not%20this%20time.\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Typically, when gasoline prices are high, a saving grace is that the U.S. energy industry thrives. Not this time.&l;span&g;&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;/span&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_839993916\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignright\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839993916\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839993916/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;The refinery section of the Houston Ship Channel is seen as flood water rise on August 27, 2017 as Houston battles with tropical storm Harvey and resulting floods. (THOMAS B. SHEA/AFP/Getty Images)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Crude oil prices have been low since 2015, but the disruption of U.S. refining has caused crude oil prices to drop further. If the U.S. refining situation does not fully recover soon, the price of WTI crude oil&a;nbsp;could continue to fall. This natural disaster is only adding to the already extreme oversupply of crude oil in the world, which could lead to a further divergence between crude and gasoline prices. When gasoline prices are high, the economy suffers. Without the saving grace of high crude oil prices buoying growth in the energy sector, the impact on U.S. economic growth could be severe.&l;/p&g;&q;,&q;&l;p&g;Even global crude producers are suffering from this storm. Saudi Aramco, which owns the Motiva refinery, has not been able to distribute crude there. Other global crude producers have tankers waiting in the Gulf of Mexico for the &l;a href=\&q;https://www.marketplace.org/2017/08/29/economy/port-corpus-christi-remains-closed-there-hope\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;ports&l;/a&g; to reopen.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_840549116\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-840549116\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/840549116/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;638\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;A refinery is seen during the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey on August 29, 2017 in Deer Park, Texas. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Many of us have been &l;a href=\&q;http://www.ellenrwald.com/oil-export-ban/refineries-not-exports-is-whats-needed/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;warning&l;/a&g; for years now that the U.S. is in dire need of improved and expanded refinery and pipeline infrastructure. Refineries exist across the U.S., in the Northeast, the Midwest and the West Coast, but so much volume is now concentrated in the Gulf Coast region. Moreover, the U.S. does not have spare capacity to be able to ramp up refining in other regions in times of necessity (like now and after recovery from the storm). Nor does the U.S. have sufficient refined product pipelines to divert product from a refinery in one region to a different market in need of an influx. The market would likely build these capabilities if the &l;a href=\&q;http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/312244-increased-energy-security-will-strengthen-us-foreign\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;permitting process&l;/a&g; were simplified.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;In the current situation, given the extreme and unexpected disruptions created by Hurricane Harvey and given the downstream refining infrastructure limitations in the U.S., we must hope for a quick return to normal operations. Otherwise, &l;span class=\&q;tweet_quote\&q;&g; &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fellenrwald%2F2017%2F08%2F30%2Fhurricane-harvey-energy-crisis-could-be-nightmare-for-u-s-economy%2F&a;amp;text=the%20price%20of%20gasoline%20will%20rise%20while%20the%20price%20of%20crude%20drops%2C%20a%20nightmare%20scenario%20for%20the%20U.S.%20economy\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;the price of products like gasoline will rise while the price of crude drops, a nightmare scenario for the U.S. economy&l;span&g;&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;/span&g; 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