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      Oil Stocks &amp; Hurricane Harvey: It’s Complicated - Barron&#39;s
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  <h1 class="wsj-article-headline" itemprop="headline">Oil Stocks & Hurricane Harvey: It’s Complicated</h1>
  




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<p>We know <a href="http://www.barrons.com/articles/hurricane-harvey-will-oil-refiners-weather-the-storm-1503930599" target="_blank" class="icon none" >refiners have gotten a boost</a> from Hurricane Harvey because outages should raise prices for refined good like gasoline. Is what's <a href="http://www.barrons.com/articles/hurricane-harvey-may-cause-gas-price-spike-disrupt-e-p-operations-1503932500" target="_blank" class="icon none" >good for refiners bad for producers</a>?</p> <!--
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<!--
      --> <p>Not necessarily, despite he fact that the <strong>Energy Select Sector ETF</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/XLE" target="_blank" class="icon none" >XLE</a>) has declined 0.6% to $62.62. Morgan Stanley's Benny Wong and team call the impact on oil prices and oil explorer &quot;more complicated.&quot; They explain why:</p> <blockquote> Near-term impact to oil price is likely supportive for price, as the negative US production outages reduce global supply, yet medium term the answer is more dependent on the balance between US refinery and upstream outages. Hurricane Harvey will effect US offshore production, which is known per history, yet also will effect US shale production, primarily Eagle ford, and crude transportation (imports and exports) which is newer vs. history and lies in path of the stalled storm. Approximately 10% or 150 Mbpd of US offshore production is currently shut-in (39 platforms) and activity has likely slowed to stopped in the Eagle Ford shale, which represents ~1.4 MMbpd of production. The effect to shale could linger given the extent and catastrophic level of forecasted flooding which interferes with shale logistics and activity. Several Eagle Ford producers (<strong>ConocoPhillips</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/COP" target="_blank" class="icon none" >COP</a>), <strong>Marathon Oil</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/MRO" target="_blank" class="icon none" >MRO</a>), <strong>Pioneer Natural Resources</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/PXD" target="_blank" class="icon none" >PXD</a>), <strong>Statoil</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/STO" target="_blank" class="icon none" >STO</a>), <strong>EOG Resources</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/EOG" target="_blank" class="icon none" >EOG</a>)) discussed paring back operations, halting well completion, and shutting in production in higher risk areas in front of the storm which represents 3Q17 production risk in effected areas (EOG, ConocoPhillips, <strong>Chesapeake Energy</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/CHK" target="_blank" class="icon none" >CHK</a>), <strong>BHP Billiton</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/BHP" target="_blank" class="icon none" >BHP</a>), Marathon Oil, <strong>Anadarko Petroleum</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/APC" target="_blank" class="icon none" >APC</a>), <strong>Murphy Oil</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/MUR" target="_blank" class="icon none" >MUR</a>), <strong>Noble Energy</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/NBL" target="_blank" class="icon none" >NBL</a>), <strong>Devon Energy</strong> (<a href="http://quotes.barrons.com/DVN" target="_blank" class="icon none" >DVN</a>)). Weather is a growing culprit for shale production variance. The medium term impact is harder to assess at this stage yet given the greater size of refining capacity at risk to flooding (+2.5mmbpd), that is largely coastal vs. in-land production impact, we expect the impact could be negative for upstream as US inventories build.</blockquote> <p>Shares of ConocoPhillips have fallen 1.3% to $43 at 3:30 p.m. today, while Marathon Oil has declined 1% to $10.95, Pioneer Natural Resources has slipped 0.7% to $128.26, Statoil has dipped 0.3% to $18.67, EOG Resources has slumped 1.4% to $83.29, Chesapeake Energy has tumbled 3.7% to $3.66, BHP Billiton has risen 0.6% to $42.82, Anadarko Petroleum has dropped 2.8% to $41.17, Murphy Oil has fallen 2% to $22.70, Noble Energy has slipped 1.3% to $23.35, and Devon Energy is foo 1% at $30.84.</p>

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