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    <title>How Hurricane Harvey Became So Destructive - The New York Times</title>
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<p class="byline-dateline"><span class="byline" itemprop="author creator" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"  itemid="https://www.nytimes.com/by/lisa-friedman">By <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/lisa-friedman" title="More Articles by LISA FRIEDMAN"><span class="byline-author" data-byline-name="LISA FRIEDMAN" itemprop="name" data-twitter-handle="LFFriedman">LISA FRIEDMAN</span></a> and </span><span class="byline" itemprop="author creator" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"  itemid="https://www.nytimes.com/by/john-schwartz"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/john-schwartz" title="More Articles by JOHN SCHWARTZ"><span class="byline-author" data-byline-name="JOHN SCHWARTZ" itemprop="name" data-twitter-handle="jswatz">JOHN SCHWARTZ</span></a></span><time class="dateline" datetime="2017-10-29T07:50:25-04:00" itemprop="dateModified" content="2017-10-29T07:50:25-04:00">AUG. 28, 2017</time>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="381" data-total-count="381">Scientists say the effects of Hurricane Harvey, which has been stalled over the Texas Gulf Coast since Friday and dumped more than 20 inches of rain in some areas, were worsened by a lethal confluence of meteorological events: warm water in the Gulf of Mexico that intensified the rainfall, and a lack of winds in the upper atmosphere that could have steered Harvey away from land.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="262" data-total-count="643">Exacerbating the situation, said <a href="http://www.marineweatherandclimate.com/">Hal Needham</a>, a storm surge expert and founder of the private firm Marine Weather &amp; Climate in Galveston, Tex., was that the storm surge elevated Galveston Bay, blocking drainage of the rain that pummeled coastal and inland areas.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="148" data-total-count="791">“A two- or three-foot storm surge alone would not have been catastrophic,” Mr. Needham said. “It was all these ingredients coming together.”</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="20" data-total-count="811">And it’s not over.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="322" data-total-count="1133">Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a> in Miami, said the driving rains would continue for another two or three days, pouring an additional 15 to 25 inches over parts of Southeast Texas. Some areas, he said, could see as much as 50 inches of rain.</p><div class="newsletter-signup variant-1-hidden " id="newsletter-promo" data-newsletter-productCode="CLIM" data-newsletter-productTitle="Stories about Climate Change" aria-labeledby="newsletter-promo-heading">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="37" data-total-count="1170">“This is unprecedented,” he said.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="293" data-total-count="1463">Yet it does have some parallels. <a href="http://geography.uga.edu/directory/profile/shepherd-marshall/">J. Marshall Shepherd</a>, director of the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia, said Harvey is very much like Allison, a tropical storm that flooded Houston badly in 2001 because it lingered over the city and dumped prodigious amounts of rain.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="276" data-total-count="1739">“In some ways, I think this event is going to far surpass what we saw in Tropical Storm Allison,” Dr. Shepherd said. The atmosphere is not helping to push it anywhere else. “The steering currents that would normally lift it out of that region aren’t there,” he said.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="94" data-total-count="1833">Hurricanes are essentially large weather engines fueled by the warm waters of the ocean below.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="426" data-total-count="2259">The mind-boggling amount of rainfall during Harvey is a function of the storm sitting by the Gulf of Mexico and continuing to draw moisture directly from it. Because of the orientation of the storm, Dr. Shepherd said, “you’ve just got this stream of moisture firehosing into the Houston region,” as the moisture is constantly replenished by the gulf. “This could go down as the worst flood disaster in U.S. history.”</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="297" data-total-count="2556">Scientists are increasingly able to link some extreme weather events to climate change, but when it comes to hurricanes, many say there remain <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/us/hurricane-harvey-climate-change-texas.html?mcubz=0">a number of unknowns</a>. What is clear, though, is that rising global temperatures warm the oceans, which causes more water to evaporate into the atmosphere.</p> <figure id="hurricane-harvey-texas" class="interactive promo  layout-large">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="177" data-total-count="2733">The buildup of moisture in turn contributes to the global increase in extreme rainfall, <a href="https://ncics.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/">Kenneth Kunkel</a>, a researcher with the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, said.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="215" data-total-count="2948">Even without climate change as a factor, Dr. Kunkel said, oceans are normally warm this time of year. But, he pointed out, the Gulf of Mexico has been <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/a-sizzling-gulf-of-mexico-could-bring-more-spring-storms/">warmer than average</a> lately, most likely feeding into the deluge.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="109" data-total-count="3057">Several scientists stressed that while the damage of Hurricane Harvey was unrelenting, it was not unexpected.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="212" data-total-count="3269">Forecasters were anticipating a very wet storm to park over Houston for an extended period. “This, honestly, is playing out, unfortunately, exactly as we thought it would several days ago,” Dr. Shepherd said.</p><figure class="promo media video embedded layout-large-horizontal "
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                <p class="summary">Harvey, now a tropical storm, pummeled Houston and the surrounding region, bringing catastrophic flooding and killing at least five people.</p>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="301" data-total-count="3570">He said he grew worried when he saw public statements of relief that the storm had been downgraded from Category 4 strength to a tropical storm. He said the change in technical terminology may have confused the public and led local officials to lose focus on the greater threat, a multiday rain event.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="243" data-total-count="3813">“There was always a one-two punch with this particular storm, but we were always more concerned about the ‘two,’ the rainfall,” Dr. Shepherd said. “Once that subsided, people like me said, ‘O.K., we’re just getting started.’”</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="468" data-total-count="4281">Different models predict different aspects of storms. <a href="http://ims.unc.edu/home/people/luettich/">Rick Luettich</a> is director of the University of North Carolina’s Institute of Marine Sciences and an internationally recognized expert on storm surge, and a principal developer of the <a href="http://adcirc.org/">ADCIRC</a> computer programs, which can be used to predict storm surge. For Harvey, Friday’s calculations suggested a surge of eight to 10 feet in the coastal areas, with as much as 12 feet in some of the shallow coastal estuaries.</p><button class="button comments-button  theme-speech-bubble-large" data-skip-to-para-id="">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="319" data-total-count="4600">The water threat that is getting the most attention with Harvey, however, is the intense rainfall predicted as the storm lingers over the Houston area. With storms growing wetter thanks to climate change, Mr. Luettich and his collaborators are trying to add rainfall calculations to the coastal surge forecasting model.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="107" data-total-count="4707">“People don’t care, if they got wet or got drowned, whether their water was salty or fresh,” he said.</p><footer class="story-footer story-content">
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        <p class="story-print-citation">A version of this article appears in print on August 29, 2017, on Page A13 of the <span itemprop="printEdition">New York edition</span> with the headline: Warm Gulf Fuels the Rain and Gives It Nowhere to Go. <span class="story-footer-links">  <span><a href="http://www.nytreprints.com/" target="_blank">Order Reprints</a><span class="pipe">|</span></span>  <span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/todayspaper/index.html" target="_blank">Today's Paper</a><span class="pipe">|</span></span><span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp839RF.html?campaignId=48JQY" target="_blank">Subscribe</a></span>
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