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          <h1>Experimental Tropical Storm Harvey Power Outage Forecasts </h1>

<p>
Hurricane Harvey has dissipated. For remaining power outages, please check with local utilities such as AEP Texas and Centerpoint.
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<strong>We are running the power outage forecasting model for Hurricane Irma. Those forecasts can be found <a href="http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/Hurricane_Irma.html">here</a>.</strong><br><br>
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This is our last planned update to the outage forecasts for Hurricane Harvey. The track forecast has shifted overnight and is uncertain at this point. The total realized outages will depend on the track of the storm and how long it maintains strength. Regardless of the exact number of outages, this is a high-impact event, and outages will be prolonged. Based on the 8/26 12 UTC (6am eastern) official forecast, we estimate that there will be approximately 350,000 customers without power due to this storm. Due to difficult conditions for utilities on the ground and the long-lived nature of this storm, those without power should expect prolonged outages. Information on the current outages are availble from the local utilities. We encourage you to visit these sites for up to date information and to take steps to remain safe. For tips on safety during outages please visit <a href="https://www.ready.gov/power-outages">ready.gov</a>.

<br><br>
Information on current outages is available from:<br>
AEP Texas's <a href="http://outagemap.aeptexas.com.s3.amazonaws.com/external/default.html">outage map.</a><br>
Centerpoint's <a href="http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/">outage map</a>


</p>

<p>
<font color="black">

<hr>

A note for reporters, utilities, and government agencies wishing to ask questions about the model. You can reach either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring by phone or email with questions. Their contact information is:<br>
Seth Guikema: (734)369-2469, sguikema@umich.edu<br>
Steven Quiring: (614)247-8222, quiring.10@osu.edu<br>
The best way to reach us is to email both Seth and Steven, and one of us will get back to you as soon as we can.
</font>
</p>

          <p> This page contains the power outage forecasts for Tropical Storm Havey (2017) from the Hurricane Power Outage model developed by Seth Guikema (University of Michigan), Steven Quiring (Ohio State University) and Brent McRoberts (Texas A &amp; M Univeristy). <strong>These are experimenal results, not a fully operational forecasting model. </strong> This model takes as input track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and estiamtes the fraction of the popualtion without power at the census tract level. This model is a statistical outage forecasting model based on wind speed estimates, population density, soil moisture levels, drought indices, and information about trees in each census tract. The most recent forecast is at the top of the list. <b>These outage estimates are provided for informational purposes only and are the product of a research project at the collaborating institutions. The information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. The investigators and their universities do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained on this website.</b> For more information on an earlier version of this model, you can find the journal paper from <i>IEEE Access</i> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2014.2365716"> here</a>. The model used for the predictions below builds from this previous model. The paper describing the new model was published online in <i>Risk Analysis</i> in late 2016 and will appear online soon. It is available <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12728"> here </a>. For more information you can also contact Seth Guikema via <a href="mailto:sguikema@umich.edu">email</a>. This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and a private utility.</p>

<strong>IMPORTANT CAVEATS:</strong>
The version of the model being run here does not explicitly consider outages induced by high rainfall or coastal surge. Rainfall in particular is likely to be a problem with this storm. Incorporating outages due to high rainfall and inland flooding remains an active area of research, but it is not incorporated into the version of the model used to generate the outage estiamtes below.<br><br>

We should also note that at this point we are running the model using only the National Hurricane Center official track and intensity forecast. There remains uncertainty in the track, and a shift towards the more populated Houston area could lead to a substantial increase in the predicted number of people without power due to this storm.
<br><br>


The main members of the reseach team are below, with web links to their web pages for more information.<br>
<a href="http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/">Seth Guikema</a>, University of Michigan<br>
<a href="http://geography.tamu.edu//people/faculty/mcrobertsdouglasbrent">Brent McRoberts</a>, Texas A&M University<br>
<a href="https://geography.osu.edu/people/quiring.10"> Steven Quiring</a>, The Ohio State University<br>
<a href="http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/people.html">Sara Shashaani</a>, University of Michigan <br>

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The total number of people predicted to be without power has grown quickly over the last day. this is a function of both the storm strengthening and the forecast track taking it over more populated areas. To give a sense of how quickly the forecasts changed, the figure below shows our predictions over time from 8/24 12 UTC (6am eastern) through 8/26 0 UTC (8/25 6pm eastern).
<img src="/Harvey_Forecasts/outageforecasthistory.png" style="width: 500px;" class="center-block">

<br>
<hr>

<p><b>Tropical Storm Harvey Power Outage Forecast from August 26, 2017 12 UTC (6am 8/26 eastern time). Colors show the fraction of the population predicted to be without power at the census tract level. The total number of people predicted to be without power is shown in the figure legend. Note that we have provide an estimate of both the number of people without power and the number of customer meters without power. Customer meters without power is what is generally reported by utilities. Please go to nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and the currently active storm warnings and advisories.</b></p>

<h1><strong>Outage Forecast Based on the National Hurricane Center Official Track and Intensity Forecast</strong></h1><br>
<img src="/Harvey_Forecasts/Prediction_Data_2017082612_OFCI.png" style="width: 900px; height: 600px;" class="center-block">


<br>
<br>
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<h1><strong>Outage Forecast Based on the COTI Model (U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr).</strong></h1>
<br> 
This is the model that is currently on the northern side of the model runs but still within the general area of the bulk of the other track forecasts. These results show that if the storm moves a bit north and impacts the greater Houston area, the impacts could potentially be substantially higher.
<img src="/Harvey_Forecasts/Prediction_Data_2017082500_COTI.png" style="width: 900px; height: 600px;" class="center-block">
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