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DIFFENBAUGH</address><time pudate="2017-08-29 10:35:01" datetime="2017-08-29 10:35:01">2017年8月29日</time></div><div class="share-btn"><i class="icon-forward"></i></div></div></div></div><figure class="article-span-photo"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/08/29/opinion/29diffenbaughWeb/29diffenbaughWeb-master1050.jpg" width="1050" height="700" alt="週日，颶風哈維肆虐後的休士頓梅耶蘭地區。"><figcaption><span>週日，颶風哈維肆虐後的休士頓梅耶蘭地區。</span> <cite>Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row"><div class="article-left col-lg-8"><section class="article-body"><p>加州史丹佛——週日，在德克薩斯州發生災難之際，川普總統通過一則<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/901797906046439426">推文</a>，對引發<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169">前所未有的</a>降雨和洪水的颶風哈維(Hurricane Harvey)表示震驚。他本不該感到驚訝。</p><p>氣候科學已反覆表明，全球暖化會讓<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=Special%20Reports&r=SREX&f=Chapter%2003">極端降雨</a>和<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/14/5369.full">風暴潮洪水</a>的發生概率有所增加。拒絕承認這一點，會損害我們為應對未來的極端天氣做準備的能力，危及美國人的生命財產安全。</p><p>這場風暴已經給休士頓及其周邊地區帶來巨大損失，其中包括至少導致5人喪生。此外，由於風暴可能繼續在墨西哥灣沿岸肆虐，它很可能會造成更大的破壞。</p><p>儘管海平面已經上漲，海水的溫度也有所上升，現在的空氣也變得更加潮濕，但我們還不能就氣候變化對颶風哈維的影響得出明確的結論。颶風是頗為複雜的事件，既往的全球暖化在其形成過程中所扮演的角色仍有待研究。但公認的是，在美國乃至世界各地，很多種極端天氣都受到全球暖化的影響；在我們為未來做準備之際，承認這一現實可謂至關重要。</p><div class="big_ad" id="div-gpt-ad-bigad_0" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid1&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><p>尤其值得一提的是，最近的一些研究表明，不在我們的歷史經驗之內的天氣狀況出現的可能性正在增加。例如，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/19/4881.full">我和同事們最近發現</a>，在我們進行過可靠觀測的全球80%的地方，全球暖化已經讓創紀錄熱浪的出現概率有所提高，它還是其中半數地區創記錄乾濕事件的影響因素。</p><p>另外一些研究顯示了源自全球暖化的類似影響，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/897/2017/hess-21-897-2017.pdf">其中包括去年在墨西哥灣中部引發洪水的極端降雨</a>。眼下有太多關於極端天氣事件日益增多的證據，任何人只要了解相關科學——或者信任本國政府中從事相關研究的科學家——就應該知道，記錄還會不斷被打破。</p><p>把這些科學發現融入聯邦、州級和地方決策中有助於為極端事件做準備。幾十年來，人們一直認為氣候是「穩定」的，極端天氣事件發生的機率是不變的。但是，由於全球暖化在增加那些機率，要想具有適應能力，做好準備，就必須把不斷變化的可能性融入規劃、設計和運營決策中。</p><p>不幸的是，川普總統正在讓美國走向相反的方向。實際上，前不久，他的政府宣布恢復原來對基礎設施的規定，包括撤銷歐巴馬時代的一個要求：在使用聯邦資金修建道路、橋樑和管道時，要考慮氣候變化和海平面上升的因素。</p><p>拒絕考慮氣候變化是一項昂貴的主張。我們暫時還不知道哈維颶風造成的全部損失。但是，極端天氣每年給美國造成上百億美元的損失。這些事件的頻率和代價在不斷升高，過去十年裡的總損失超過2500億美元。而且這個數字不包括事件造成的全部人道主義損失和生態破壞。</p><p>災難降臨時基礎設施的價值和脆弱性顯然是導致災難損失呈現上升趨勢的一個因素。不過，極端降雨、風暴潮洪水和極度炎熱等事件的發生概率顯然也在因為全球暖化而增加，提高了災難性破壞的機率。無視這個事實將會付出慘重代價。</p><p>正如上週威爾遜中心(Wilson Center)的羅傑-馬克·德蘇扎(Roger-Mark De Souza)以及史丹佛大學我的同事克里斯·菲爾德(Chris Field)、凱瑟琳·馬赫(Katharine Mach)和愛麗絲·希爾(Alice Hill)指出的，沿海社區已將氣候信息融入自己的規劃之中，從而在財務上獲得好處。他們正將社群媒體納入早期預警和反應系統中，改進撤離決策的協作，更注重社會和經濟不平等導致的脆弱，並將洪泛區的建築放在更高的位置上。其他需要州級或聯邦政府協作的行動包括修訂《國家洪水保險計劃》(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf" title="Link: http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program</a>)，以適應不斷變化的風險情況，重新安置面臨緊急威脅的社區。</p><div class="big_ad" id="div-gpt-ad-bigad_1" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid2&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><p>明智地處理對風險的暴露和脆弱性對於減少風險非常重要。但是，要做到這一點，就需要承認全球暖化正在發生，人類活動是主要原因，哈維颶風這類災難發生的概率在不斷上升。</p><p>相反，川普總統正在瓦解歐巴馬總統的氣候變化日程，他前不久解散了一個聯邦氣候變化諮詢委員會，他還提議削減用於氣候研究以及支持相關機構的預算，而美國人依靠那些機構了解、預測氣候和天氣災難，並為之做準備。</p><p>拒絕承認極端天氣發生的機率在變化意味著我們將對自己經驗之外的事件毫無準備。否定氣候科學不只是一項政治宣言。它也將美國人的生命和財產置於風險之中。</p></section><footer class="author-info"><p>Noah S. Diffenbaugh是史丹佛大學的地球系統科學教授。</p><p>翻譯：李瓊、王相宜<br><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/hurricane-harvey-global-warming.html">點擊查看本文英文版。</a></p></footer></div><div class="article-right col-lg-4 with-refer"><div id="subscribe_cont" style="margin: 0 auto"></div><script src="https://sso.nytcn.me/assets/js/subscribe.js?site=news&type=new_article"></script><script>var subscribe = new Subscribe('subscribe_cont', {
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