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alt="salon icon"/><h3 class="style__title___NfUxX">Up Next</h3><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/19/all-the-presidents-cabins-why-were-so-enamored-with-these-humble-log-homes/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">All the presidents’ log cabins</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Andrew Belonsky</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/19/fiscal-fraud-why-supply-side-economics-refuses-to-die/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Why supply-side economics won’t die</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Conor Lynch</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" 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Lee</span>)<span data-comment="credit end"></span></span></div></div></div><div class="style__articleBodyContent___2EFq5"><div class="style__postBodyTitleArea___21Hlg"><span data-comment="post title begin"></span><h1 class="style__title___2Rdst">Harvey, Irma, Maria: The hurricane season scientists feared</h1><span data-comment="post title end"></span><h2 class="style__deck___2Lb47">Scientists predicted the devastation of this hurricane season </h2><div class="style__addThisTop___2Wotf"><div class="addthis_inline_share_toolbox"></div></div><div class="style__metrics___26UhR"><div><div class="style__info___1RnIc"><span class="style__authorName___1Hdxd"><span><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="/writer/eric-holthaus">Eric Holthaus</a></span><span>, <span>Grist</span></span></span><span class="style__dateTime___2K_zH"><span class="style__date___3lcMr iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-09-24T16:59:33Z">2017-09-24T16:59:33Z</span><span class="style__dateSpacer___3PhQ-">•</span><span class="style__time___1B7Ka iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-09-24T16:59:33Z">2017-09-24T16:59:33Z</span></span></div><div class="style__socialComments___2xpOY"><span data-no-comments="1"></span><div class="style__social___evyKZ"></div></div></div></div><span data-comment="editorsNote begin"></span><div class="style__editorsNote___7rE5h">This post originally appeared on <a href="http://www.grist.org/" target="_blank">Grist</a>.</div><span data-comment="editorsNote end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-1"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-0" class="style__firstParagraph___X_T4B"><p>After multiple intense hurricane landfalls this month, the scenes from the Caribbean have been horrific — trees stripped bare, houses flattened, million-dollar yachts strewn like toys.</p></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div data-node="node-2" class=""><p>Category 5 hurricanes, like Irma and Maria, are the pinnacle of nature’s fury. There is simply no weather event on Earth that can cause so much destruction so quickly. They are worst-case scenarios.</p></div><div data-node="node-4" class=""><p>On Wednesday morning, Maria became one of the <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/910540012978151424" target="_blank">most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded</a> to make landfall, striking southeastern Puerto Rico with winds of up to 155 mph. Puerto Rican residents <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/puerto-rico-faces-hurricane-maria-after-irma-s-1-billion-damage" target="_blank">rationed basic supplies</a> and hunkered down in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria.html" target="_blank">fragile infrastructure</a> in anticipation of the storm, which wiped out <a href="https://twitter.com/ABC/status/910553252034416641" target="_blank">100 percent</a> of the island’s power. Recovery could take years.</p></div><div data-node="node-6" class=""><p>“We have not experienced an event of this magnitude in our modern history,” Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló said in an <a href="https://vimeo.com/234556644" target="_blank">island-wide address</a> Tuesday night.</p></div><div data-node="node-8" class=""><p>There is evidence that we are emerging from an era of messy meteorological data, where we were blind to warming seas strengthening hurricanes because the really damaging ones were rare. If that’s true, weather historians may look to this year as the beginning of a frightening new phase of superstorms.</p></div><div data-node="node-10" class=""><p><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NormalizedHurricane2008.pdf" target="_blank">About 85 percent</a> of all damage done by hurricanes is attributable to “major” storms — those stronger than Category 3, so roughly one-quarter of all storms. While relatively infrequent, they are by far the most destructive — a Category-5 cyclone has <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/how-category-5-hurricanes-form-conditions-weather/" target="_blank">500 times the power</a> of a Category 1. Globally, major hurricanes have become <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJn_16xVYAAQgfR.jpg:large" target="_blank">slightly more common in recent decades</a>, even as overall numbers have held steady.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-2"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__sponsoredStoriesMainSmall___1oW0H" data-obwidget-id="AR_8"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-3"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_1 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-4"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-12" class=""><p>Further, there’s nothing in recorded history that resembles what Irma and Maria have inflicted on Caribbean islands in recent days. Since Sept. 6, the two hurricanes have made <a href="https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910190199803645955" target="_blank">six separate landfalls</a> at Category-5 strength. Before this month, <a href="https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910190199803645955" target="_blank">just 18 such landfalls had happened in the previous 165 years</a> (and never more than three in a single year). Clearly there’s something happening here — and there’s a developing consensus among scientists about what factors are responsible.</p></div><div data-node="node-14" class=""><p>There have been only 33 Category 5 storms in the Atlantic since hurricane records began in 1851. <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/910016642104664064" target="_blank">Twenty-three of them have formed since 1961</a>; 11 in only the last 14 years. Part of that uptick comes from better weather monitoring equipment, like satellites that help us spot hurricanes before they make landfall. But even since we developed satellite technology, there’s been a measurable increase in major storms.</p></div><div data-node="node-16" class=""><p>The strongest hurricanes require <a href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/908085403697111041" target="_blank">an exceptionally warm ocean</a> to intensify, and with water temperatures currently near record highs in the Caribbean, it’s providing conditions ripe for Category 5s. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since 1970, the oceans have retained more than 90 percent of the excess energy generated from global warming. That’s a lot of extra <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate-change.html#.WcF5rtOGNE5" target="_blank">fuel for stronger storms</a>.</p></div><div data-node="node-18" class=""><p>Rising ocean temperatures have given researchers the confidence to ask the question that’s been on all our minds this month: Are we due for more Irmas and Marias in the years to come?</p></div><div data-node="node-20" class=""><p>“The consensus among those who study the relationship between climate and hurricanes is that the incidence of intense storms — like Harvey, Irma, and Maria — should go up as the climate warms,” Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Grist.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-5"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="carambola style__default_hidden___35ppK style__visible_at_desktop___2NxE7 "><span data-comment="carambola begin"></span><span data-comment="carambola end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-6"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-7"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-22" class=""><p>In fact, just this week, a team of researchers in Japan <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0068.1" target="_blank">provided fresh evidence</a> that tropical cyclones should generally grow stronger, larger, and rainier in the future. The reasons for this are relatively straightforward: Hurricanes are built to convert heat energy into wind energy, and seawater’s available energy <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060313/full/news060313-12.html" target="_blank">rises exponentially as it warms</a>. That raises cyclones’ theoretical upper speed limit — <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/abs/nature03906.html?foxtrotcallback=true" target="_blank">something Emanuel tracks closely</a> — making it more likely that any given storm will reach the level of “major.”</p></div><div data-node="node-24" class=""><p>In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/why-its-time-to-stop-calling-these-hurricane-disasters-natural/?tid=ss_tw-bottom&amp;utm_term=.50fcfad203e4" target="_blank">an op-ed</a> in Tuesday’s Washington Post, Emanuel argues that this year’s surge in hurricane activity <a href="https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/" target="_blank">shouldn’t be labeled as “natural” disasters</a> because that designation ignores humans’ role in seeding stronger storms, as well as our long-running, worldwide <a href="https://weather.com/science/environment/news/coastal-populations-grow-sea-levels-rise" target="_blank">coastal building boom</a>.</p></div><div data-node="node-26" class=""><p><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1" target="_blank">A prescient study he published in March</a> found that nightmare hurricanes that rapidly intensify just prior to landfall — like Harvey as it entered Texas and Maria this week in Dominica — should occur more regularly in a warmer atmosphere. Previous research suggests it’s normal for strong hurricanes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10625" target="_blank">to rapidly intensify</a>. But Emanuel argues that a storm that revs up from Category 1 to Category 5 in fewer than 24 hours, as Maria did — making it one of the fastest strengthening storms ever measured — could eventually become 10 to 20 times more frequent of an occurrence.</p></div><div data-node="node-28" class=""><p>For now, it’s difficult to tell from <a href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/910158280671899648" target="_blank">the noisy data we have,</a> but Emanuel thinks we might soon detect a signal that hurricanes are already getting stronger faster — and this month’s storms could help make that case. And that would bring a whole new set of challenges: Bigger hurricanes that intensify more quickly would, improbably, make the worst-case scenario even worse.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-8"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div data-tout-mid-article-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___27f_5"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-9"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_2 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-tout-player-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___3BAqz"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-10"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div 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href="/topic/hurricane-harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a><span data-comment="topic name end"></span></div><div class="style__topicLink___2lFN-"><span data-comment="topic name begin"></span><a href="/topic/science">Science</a><span data-comment="topic name end"></span></div><div class="style__topicLink___2lFN-"><span data-comment="topic name begin"></span><a href="/topic/hurricane-maria">hurricane maria</a><span data-comment="topic name end"></span></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postAuthorBackground___HZlsO"><div class="style__postAuthorWrapper___19wqC"><div class="style__postAuthor___36sHu"><div class="style__authorInfo___3-RO4"><div class="style__authorName___3LbSK">Eric Holthaus</div><span data-comment="shortBio begin"></span><div class="style__authorBio___CCGgl"></div><span data-comment="shortBio end"></span><div class="style__authorLinks___2dtVq"><div>More from  <a target="_blank" href="/writer/eric-holthaus">Eric Holthaus</a></div></div></div></div><div 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There is simply no weather event on Earth that can cause so much destruction so quickly. They are worst-case scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn Wednesday morning, Maria became one of the \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/910540012978151424\" target=\"_blank\"\u003emost intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded\u003c/a\u003e to make landfall, striking southeastern Puerto Rico with winds of up to 155 mph. Puerto Rican residents \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/puerto-rico-faces-hurricane-maria-after-irma-s-1-billion-damage\" target=\"_blank\"\u003erationed basic supplies\u003c/a\u003e and hunkered down in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003efragile infrastructure\u003c/a\u003e in anticipation of the storm, which wiped out \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/ABC/status/910553252034416641\" target=\"_blank\"\u003e100 percent\u003c/a\u003e of the island’s power. Recovery could take years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“We have not experienced an event of this magnitude in our modern history,” Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló said in an \u003ca href=\"https://vimeo.com/234556644\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eisland-wide address\u003c/a\u003e Tuesday night.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is evidence that we are emerging from an era of messy meteorological data, where we were blind to warming seas strengthening hurricanes because the really damaging ones were rare. If that’s true, weather historians may look to this year as the beginning of a frightening new phase of superstorms.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NormalizedHurricane2008.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eAbout 85 percent\u003c/a\u003e of all damage done by hurricanes is attributable to “major” storms — those stronger than Category 3, so roughly one-quarter of all storms. While relatively infrequent, they are by far the most destructive — a Category-5 cyclone has \u003ca href=\"http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/how-category-5-hurricanes-form-conditions-weather/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003e500 times the power\u003c/a\u003e of a Category 1. Globally, major hurricanes have become \u003ca href=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJn_16xVYAAQgfR.jpg:large\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eslightly more common in recent decades\u003c/a\u003e, even as overall numbers have held steady.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurther, there’s nothing in recorded history that resembles what Irma and Maria have inflicted on Caribbean islands in recent days. Since Sept. 6, the two hurricanes have made \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910190199803645955\" target=\"_blank\"\u003esix separate landfalls\u003c/a\u003e at Category-5 strength. Before this month, \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910190199803645955\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ejust 18 such landfalls had happened in the previous 165 years\u003c/a\u003e (and never more than three in a single year). Clearly there’s something happening here — and there’s a developing consensus among scientists about what factors are responsible.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere have been only 33 Category 5 storms in the Atlantic since hurricane records began in 1851. \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/910016642104664064\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eTwenty-three of them have formed since 1961\u003c/a\u003e; 11 in only the last 14 years. Part of that uptick comes from better weather monitoring equipment, like satellites that help us spot hurricanes before they make landfall. But even since we developed satellite technology, there’s been a measurable increase in major storms.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe strongest hurricanes require \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/908085403697111041\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ean exceptionally warm ocean\u003c/a\u003e to intensify, and with water temperatures currently near record highs in the Caribbean, it’s providing conditions ripe for Category 5s. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since 1970, the oceans have retained more than 90 percent of the excess energy generated from global warming. That’s a lot of extra \u003ca href=\"http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate-change.html#.WcF5rtOGNE5\" target=\"_blank\"\u003efuel for stronger storms\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRising ocean temperatures have given researchers the confidence to ask the question that’s been on all our minds this month: Are we due for more Irmas and Marias in the years to come?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“The consensus among those who study the relationship between climate and hurricanes is that the incidence of intense storms — like Harvey, Irma, and Maria — should go up as the climate warms,” Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Grist.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn fact, just this week, a team of researchers in Japan \u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0068.1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eprovided fresh evidence\u003c/a\u003e that tropical cyclones should generally grow stronger, larger, and rainier in the future. The reasons for this are relatively straightforward: Hurricanes are built to convert heat energy into wind energy, and seawater’s available energy \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060313/full/news060313-12.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003erises exponentially as it warms\u003c/a\u003e. That raises cyclones’ theoretical upper speed limit — \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/abs/nature03906.html?foxtrotcallback=true\" target=\"_blank\"\u003esomething Emanuel tracks closely\u003c/a\u003e — making it more likely that any given storm will reach the level of “major.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/why-its-time-to-stop-calling-these-hurricane-disasters-natural/?tid=ss_tw-bottom\u0026utm_term=.50fcfad203e4\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ean op-ed\u003c/a\u003e in Tuesday’s Washington Post, Emanuel argues that this year’s surge in hurricane activity \u003ca href=\"https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eshouldn’t be labeled as “natural” disasters\u003c/a\u003e because that designation ignores humans’ role in seeding stronger storms, as well as our long-running, worldwide \u003ca href=\"https://weather.com/science/environment/news/coastal-populations-grow-sea-levels-rise\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ecoastal building boom\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eA prescient study he published in March\u003c/a\u003e found that nightmare hurricanes that rapidly intensify just prior to landfall — like Harvey as it entered Texas and Maria this week in Dominica — should occur more regularly in a warmer atmosphere. Previous research suggests it’s normal for strong hurricanes \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10625\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eto rapidly intensify\u003c/a\u003e. But Emanuel argues that a storm that revs up from Category 1 to Category 5 in fewer than 24 hours, as Maria did — making it one of the fastest strengthening storms ever measured — could eventually become 10 to 20 times more frequent of an occurrence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor now, it’s difficult to tell from \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/910158280671899648\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ethe noisy data we have,\u003c/a\u003e but Emanuel thinks we might soon detect a signal that hurricanes are already getting stronger faster — and this month’s storms could help make that case. And that would bring a whole new set of challenges: Bigger hurricanes that intensify more quickly would, improbably, make the worst-case scenario even worse.\u003c/p\u003e\n","editorsNote":"This post originally appeared on \u003ca href=\"http://www.grist.org/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eGrist\u003c/a\u003e.","pullQuote":"","socialMetas":{"twitter:title":"Harvey, Irma, Maria: The hurricane season scientists feared","twitter:description":"Scientists predicted the devastation of this hurricane season ","twitter:image":"https://media.salon.com/2017/09/AP_17253495328979-1024x727.jpg","twitter:site":"@Salon","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:creator":"@Salon","og:title":"Harvey, Irma, Maria: The hurricane season scientists feared","og:site_name":"Salon","og:description":"Scientists predicted the devastation of this hurricane season 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