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layout"> <div class="moat-trackable pb-f-theme-normal pb-f-dehydrate-false pb-f-async-false full pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-article-article-deck" moat-id="article/article-deck|business" data-chain-name="no-name" data-feature-name="no-name" data-feature-id="article/article-deck" data-pb-fingerprint="0fXmHEvNlqX" id="f0ZJo6gNelfqIq"> <div id="article-deck" class="article-deck"> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </div> <div class="moat-trackable pb-f-theme-normal pb-f-dehydrate-false pb-f-async-false full pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-article-article-body" moat-id="article/article-body|business" data-chain-name="no-name" data-feature-name="no-name" data-feature-id="article/article-body" data-pb-fingerprint="0fPmHEvNlqi" id="f0Yf2UgNelfqIq"> <div id="article-body" class="article-body content-format-default"> <div class="pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column"> <span class="pb-byline" itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">By <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/chris-mooney/"><span itemprop="name">Chris Mooney</span></a></span> <span class="pb-byline-tool-mobile"> <span class="pb-byline" itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">By <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/chris-mooney/"><span itemprop="name">Chris Mooney</span></a></span> <span class="pb-tool email"><a href="mailto:christopher.mooney@washpost.com?subject=Reader feedback for 'We had all better hope these scientists are wrong about the planet&#8217;s future'"><span class="fa fa-envelope"></span><span class="envelope-label">Email the author</span></a></span> </span> <span class="pb-timestamp" itemprop="datePublished" content="2016-03-22T08:00-500">March 22, 2016</span> <span class="pb-tool email"><a href="mailto:christopher.mooney@washpost.com?subject=Reader feedback for 'We had all better hope these scientists are wrong about the planet&#8217;s future'"><span class="fa fa-envelope"></span><span class="envelope-label">Email the author</span></a></span> <span class="tweet-authors"><span class="pb-twitter-follow unprocessed"><a href="https://twitter.com/chriscmooney" class="twitter-follow-button" data-show-count="false" data-lang="en">Follow chriscmooney</a></span> </span> <span class="pb-bolt"><i class="fa fa-bolt"></i></span> </div> <article class="paywall" itemprop="articleBody"><div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal"> <a name="3d4c59b09d"></a> <img class="unprocessed placeholder" data-hi-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs341448320871.jpg&amp;w=1484" data-low-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs341448320871.jpg&amp;w=480" data-raw-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs341448320871.jpg" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs341448320871.jpg&amp;w=60"/><br/> <span class="pb-caption">Climatologist James Hansen on the Eleuthera coastal ridge on Nov. 22, 2015, in Eleuthera, Bahamas. (Charles Ommanney for The Washington Post)</span> </div> <p><em>This story has been updated.</em></p> <p>An influential group of scientists led by James Hansen, the former NASA scientist often credited with having drawn the first major attention to climate change in 1988 congressional testimony, has published a dire climate <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2015-432/">study</a> that suggests the impact of global warming will be quicker and more catastrophic than generally envisioned.</p> <p>The research invokes collapsing ice sheets, violent megastorms and even the hurling of boulders by giant waves in its quest to suggest that even 2 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels would be far too much. Hansen has called it the most important work he has ever done.</p> <p>The sweeping paper, 52 pages in length and with 19 authors, draws on evidence from ancient climate change or “paleo-climatology,” as well as climate experiments using computer models and some modern observations. Calling it a “paper” really isn’t quite right — it’s actually a synthesis of a wide range of old, and new, evidence.</p> <p channel="wp.com" class="interstitial-link"> <i> [<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/20/the-worlds-most-famous-climate-scientist-just-outlined-an-alarming-scenario-for-our-planets-future/">The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future</a>] </i> </p> <p>“I think almost everybody who’s really familiar with both paleo and modern is now very concerned that we are approaching, if we have not passed, the points at which we have locked in really big changes for young people and future generations,” Hansen said in an interview.</p> <p>The research, <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016-discussion.html">appearing Tuesday</a> in the open-access journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,<em> </em>has had a long and controversial path to life, having first appeared as a “discussion paper” in the same journal, subject to live, online peer review — a novel but increasingly influential form of scientific publishing. Hansen first told the news media about the research last summer, before this process was completed, leading to <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/whiplash-warning-when-climate-science-is-publicized-before-peer-review-and-publication/?_r=0">criticism</a> from some journalists and fellow scientists that he might be jumping the gun.</p> <div class="inline-content inline-gallery-embedded"> <link href="//www.washingtonpost.com/pb/gr/c/ssiSingle/r0DtBpwKo8Tvoq/css/d9cb19704f.css?_=f2022" rel="stylesheet"/> <link href="//www.washingtonpost.com/pb/gr/p/ssiSingle/r0DtBpwKo8Tvoq/style.css?_=512fa" rel="stylesheet"/> <script>window.pbDeferredSSISingle=window.pbDeferredSSISingle||new Array;</script> <div class="pb-container"> <div class="pb-feature-ssi-single pb-f-theme-normal pb-f-dehydrate-false pb-f-async-false pb-3 pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-gallery-gallery" data-chain-name="no-name" data-feature-id="gallery/gallery" data-feature-name="no-name" data-pb-feature-config="gallery/gallery" data-pb-fingerprint="0fh3taXsipu" id="fVVe782Ko8Tvoq"> <div class="wp-volt-gal unprocessed wp-volt-gal-p-end-circular wp-volt-gal-promo-stub wp-volt-gal-on-promo-slide wp-volt-gal-embed-promo wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-hide" data-blurb="Images of consumption are the theme of the book, “Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot.” It addresses environmental deterioration through subjects including materialism, consumption, pollution, fossil fuels and carbon footprints." data-category="Health-Environment-Science" data-commercial-node="national/health-science" data-debug="false" data-first-published="1431530615" data-keywords="[overpopulation, consumption, overconsumption, environment]" data-permalink="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/humans-staggering-effect-on-earth/2015/05/13/01c9b7e2-f974-11e4-9030-b4732caefe81_gallery.html" data-preroll-zone="" data-published="1431530580" data-section="national" data-show-interstitials="true" data-show-preroll="true" data-slug="humans-staggering-effect-on-earth" data-subsection="health-science" data-title="Humans’ staggering effect on Earth" data-uuid="01c9b7e2-f974-11e4-9030-b4732caefe81"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-bar"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav-full-gal"><a data-pb-field="custom.navPromoLabel" data-pb-placeholder="View More Label" data-pb-url-field="custom.navPromoLink" href=""></a></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav-number"><span class="wp-volt-gal-nav-number-current">1</span> of 18</div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav-buttons"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav-button wp-volt-gal-nav-prev"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-nav-button wp-volt-gal-nav-next"></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-buttons"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-button wp-volt-gal-button-fullscreen">Full Screen</div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-button wp-volt-gal-button-autoplay">Autoplay</div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-bar-pie"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-button wp-volt-gal-button-close">Close</div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-main"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-photos"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption='Sprawling Mexico City — population 20 million, with a density of 24,600 people per square mile — rolls across the landscape, displacing every scrap of natural habitat.&lt;br/&gt; &lt;a href="https://populationspeakout.org/" title="populationspeakout.org"&gt;LINK: The book&lt;/a&gt; ' data-credit="Pablo Lopez Luz" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/01-Urban-Animal-Sprawling-City1431379265.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="3296" data-ratio="1.613" data-title=" " data-uuid="a488405e-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide-gal-title"></div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="A coal-burning power plant in the United Kingdom." data-credit="Jason Hawkes" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/06-Parable-Smoking-Towers1431379268.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="5200" data-ratio="1.366" data-title=" " data-uuid="b10245fa-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="The Mir Mine in Russia is the world’s largest diamond mine." data-credit="Google Earth/ 2014 Digital Globe" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/07-Natures-Unraveling-Big-Hole1431379269.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="4800" data-ratio="1.623" data-title=" " data-uuid="a7b383f6-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="In both the Arctic and Antarctic regions, ice is retreating. Melting water on an icecap is seen in North East Land, Svalbard, Norway." data-credit="Cotton Coulson/Keenpress" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/02-Climate-Chaos-Ice-Waterfall1431379265.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="4256" data-ratio="1.503" data-title=" " data-uuid="a7d1c2ee-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="The 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Station in Japan galvanized the world’s attention and again highlighted the risks of nuclear power. Lesser known was tsunami-related damage to Japan’s fossil fuel energy infrastructure, including this facility near Tokyo." data-credit="Mainichi Newspapers/AFLO" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/11-Foul-Water-Boats-Putting-Out-Fire1431379271.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="3872" data-ratio="1.541" data-title=" " data-uuid="b63e3628-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="Indonesian surfer Dede Surinaya catches a wave in a remote but garbage-covered bay on Java, Indonesia, the world’s most populated island." data-credit="Zak Noyle/A-Frame Media" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/03-Trashing-the-Planet-Trash-Wave1431379266.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="4750" data-ratio="1.412" data-title=" " data-uuid="abf85f04-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="A shepherd by the Yellow River covers his nose against the odor in Inner Mongolia, China." data-credit="Lu Guang" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/05-Foul-Water-Man-Covering-His-Mouth1431379268.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="7087" data-ratio="1.5" data-title=" " data-uuid="af88ba2e-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="Waste from obsolete computers and other electronics are typically shipped to the developing world for sorting and/or disposal. This dump site is in Accra, Ghana." data-credit="Peter Essick" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/12-Trashing-the-Planet-Computer-Dump1431379272.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="5120" data-ratio="1.5" data-title=" " data-uuid="b71dee8a-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="On Midway Island, far from the centers of world commerce, an albatross, dead from ingesting plastic, decays on the beach. It is a common sight on the remote island." data-credit="Chris Jordan" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/04-Wildlife-Lost-Dead-Bird1431379266.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="7487" data-ratio="1.335" data-title=" " data-uuid="af0c130c-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="The Kern River Oil Field in California. Depleting oil fields are yet another symptom of ecological overshoot." data-credit="Mark Gamba/Corbis" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/10-Natures-Unraveling-Ruined-Landscape1431379271.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="5300" data-ratio="1.503" data-title=" " data-uuid="b5db17fa-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="What was previously old-growth forest, leveled for reservoir development in Willamette National Forest in Oregon." data-credit="Daniel Dancer" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/08-Parable-Clearcut1431379270.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="4724" data-ratio="1.53" data-title=" " data-uuid="b222750e-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="The western fjords on Svalbard, Norway, which normally freeze in winter, remained ice-free all season. This bear headed north, looking for suitable sea ice on which to hunt. Finding none, it eventually collapsed and died. " data-credit="Ashley Cooper" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/18-Climate-Chaos-Dead-Polar-Bear1431379277.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="5760" data-ratio="1.5" data-title=" " data-uuid="bcd27850-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="Industrial livestock production in Brazil." data-credit="Daniel Beltra/Greenpeace" data-image="https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/17-Feeding-Frenzy-Feedlot1431379276.jpg?env=A" data-max-width="5502" data-ratio="1.5" data-title=" " data-uuid="bb6a5118-f823-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed"> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-slide wp-volt-gal-photo" data-buy="false" data-caption="An aerial view of the tar sands region in Alberta, Canada, where mining operations and tailings ponds are so vast they can be seen from outer space." data-credit="Garth Lenz" 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fa-angle-left"></i></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-main-nav wp-volt-gal-main-nav-zoom"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-main-nav wp-volt-gal-main-nav-next"><i class="fa fa-angle-right"></i></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-preroll"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-preroll-video"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-preroll-text"></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-container"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-container-table"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-top"><span class="cell">Humans’ staggering effect on Earth</span></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-mid"> <div class="cell"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-mid-img-container"> <img alt="" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/05/11/Interactivity/Images/01-Urban-Animal-Sprawling-City1431379265.jpg"/> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-mid-label"><i class="fa fa-camera"></i>View Photos</div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-embed-promo-bottom"><span class="cell">Images of consumption are the theme of the book, “Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot.” It addresses environmental deterioration through subjects including materialism, consumption, pollution, fossil fuels and carbon footprints.</span></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-details"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-details-handle">Caption</div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-details-wrap"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-details-main"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-blurb">Images of consumption are the theme of the book, “Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot.” It addresses environmental deterioration through subjects including materialism, consumption, pollution, fossil fuels and carbon footprints.</div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-caption"> <span class="wp-volt-gal-caption-title"> </span> <span class="wp-volt-gal-caption-text">Sprawling Mexico City — population 20 million, with a density of 24,600 people per square mile — rolls across the landscape, displacing every scrap of natural habitat.<br/> <a href="https://populationspeakout.org/" title="populationspeakout.org">LINK: The book</a> </span> <span class="wp-volt-gal-caption-credit">Pablo Lopez Luz</span> </div> <a class="wp-volt-gal-buy-link" href="#" target="_blank">Buy Photo</a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-templates"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-pie"> <div class="wp-volt-gal-pie-anim wp-volt-gal-pie-inner wp-volt-gal-pie-spinner"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-pie-anim wp-volt-gal-pie-inner wp-volt-gal-pie-filler"></div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-pie-anim wp-volt-gal-pie-mask"></div> </div> <div class="wp-volt-gal-interstitial-text">Wait 1 second to continue.</div> </div> </div> <style>.wp-volt-gal-preroll-video{width:100%;height:100%}</style> </div> </div> <script>var __e=window.__e||[],ssiSingleFooter={init:function(){pbDeferredSSISingle.push("https://d2p9l91d5g68ru.cloudfront.net/PrerollPlugin/PrerollPlugin.min.js");pbDeferredSSISingle.push("//www.washingtonpost.com/pb/gr/p/ssiSingle/r0DtBpwKo8Tvoq/hi-pri-render.js?_\x3d512fa");pbDeferredSSISingle.push("//www.washingtonpost.com/pb/gr/p/ssiSingle/r0DtBpwKo8Tvoq/render.js?_\x3d512fa");pbDeferredSSISingle.push("//www.washingtonpost.com/pb/gr/p/ssiSingle/r0DtBpwKo8Tvoq/instance.js?_\x3d512fa");wp_import(pbDeferredSSISingle).always(function(){})}};
if(typeof wp_pb.StaticMethods=="undefined"||typeof wp_pb.StaticMethods.isPageHydrated=="undefined"||wp_pb.StaticMethods.isPageHydrated())document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",function(){ssiSingleFooter.init()});__e.push(["shamble",function(){ssiSingleFooter.init()}]);</script> </div> <p>What ensued was a high-profile debate, both because of the dramatic claims and Hansen’s formidable reputation. And his numerous co-authors, including Greenland and Antarctic ice experts and a <a href="http://www.ambafrance-uk.org/French-scientist-Valerie-Masson-Delmotte-elected-co-chair-at-IPCC">leader</a> of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were nothing to be sniffed at.</p> <p>After <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/14/what-live-peer-review-looks-like-when-the-planet-is-at-stake/">record downloads</a> for the study and an <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2015-432/">intense public review process</a>, a revised version of the paper has now been accepted, according to both Hansen and Barbara Ferreira, media and communications manager for the European Geosciences Union, which publishes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Indeed, the article is <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2015-432/">now freely readable</a> on the Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics website.</p> <p>The paper, according to Ferreira, was subject to “major revisions in terms of organisation, title and conclusions.” Those came in response to criticisms that can all be <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016-discussion.html">read publicly</a> at the journal’s website. The paper also now has two additional authors.</p> <p>Most notably, perhaps, the editorial process led to the removal of the use of the phrase “highly dangerous,” in the paper’s title, to describe warming the planet by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.</p> <p channel="wp.com" class="interstitial-link"> <i> [<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/21/what-were-doing-to-the-earth-has-no-parallel-in-66-million-years-scientists-say/">What we’re doing to the Earth has no parallel in 66 million years, scientists say</a>] </i> </p> <p>The original paper’s title was “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous.” The final title is “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous.”</p> <p>But nonetheless, James Hansen’s climate catastrophe scenario now takes its place in the official scientific literature relatively intact. So let’s rehearse that scenario, again, for the record.</p> <p>Hansen and his colleagues think that major melting of Greenland and Antarctica can not only happen quite fast — leading to as much as several meters of sea level rise in the space of a century, depending on how quickly melt rates double — but that this melting will have dramatic <em>climate change </em>consequences, beyond merely raising sea levels.</p> <p>That’s because, they postulate, melting will cause a “stratification” of the polar oceans. What this means is that it will trap a pool of cold, fresh meltwater atop the ocean surface, with a warmer ocean layer beneath. We have actually seen a possible hint of this with the anomalously cold “blob” of ocean water off the southern coast of Greenland, which some have attributed to Greenland’s melting.</p> <p>Indeed, shortly before the new paper’s publication, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201602">new recent data</a> on the globe’s temperature that certainly bears a resemblance to what Hansen is talking about. For not only was the globe at a record warmth overall over the last three months, but it also showed anomalous cool patches in regions that Hansen suspects are being caused by ice melt – below Greenland, and also off the tip of the Antarctic peninsula.</p> <div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal"> <a name="e6c0ad82a5"></a> <img class="unprocessed is-gif" data-hi-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/pbox.php?url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2016/03/201512-201602.gif&amp;op=noop" data-low-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2016/03/201512-201602.gif&amp;w=990" data-raw-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2016/03/201512-201602.gif" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2016/03/201512-201602.gif&amp;w=990"/><br/> <span class="pb-caption">(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)</span> </div> <p>“My interpretation is that this is the beginning,” Hansen says of these cool patches in curious parts of the global ocean. “And it’s one or two decades sooner than in our model.”</p> <p>However, when it comes to both the melt rates for Greenland and Antarctica, and also these cool ocean patches, we have a very limited time span of observations. It is far from clear, yet, that Hansen’s interpretation of them will prevail, and the new study also suggests closely observing these areas in coming years.</p> <p>Stratification, the key idea in the new paper, means that warm ocean water would potentially reach the base of ice sheets that sit below sea level, melting them from below (and causing more ice melt and thus, stratification). It also means, in Hansen’s paper, a slowdown or even eventual shutdown of the overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean, due to too much freshening in the North Atlantic off and around Greenland, and also a weakening of another overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean.</p> <p>This, in turn, causes cooling in the North Atlantic region, even as global warming creates a warmer equatorial region. This growing north-south temperature differential, in the study, drives more intense mid-latitude cyclones, or storms. The study suggests such storms may kick up gigantic oceanic waves, which may even be capable of feats such as hurling boulders in some locations, not unlike the huge rocks seen on the Bahamian island of Eleuthera, which I <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/28/oceans/">visited with Hansen and his co-author</a>, geologist Paul Hearty, in November.</p> <p channel="wp.com" class="interstitial-link"> <i> [<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/28/oceans/">That’s heavy: Climate-change warnings include rising seas and wild weather shifts. But giant flying boulders?</a>] </i> </p> <p>These rocks play a key role in the new paper, just as they did in the original study draft. Indeed, long before the current paper, Hearty had documented, in <a href="https://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@sci/@eesc/documents/doc/uow014953.pdf">peer-reviewed publications</a>, that Eleuthera’s rocks appear to have come from the ocean and to have been lifted high up onto a coastal ridge. This appears to have happened during a past warm period, the Eemian, some 120,000 years ago, when the planet was only slightly warmer than today but seas were far higher — but the idea is that something like it could happen again.</p> <div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal"> <a name="ce683ed72c"></a> <img class="unprocessed placeholder" data-hi-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs121448320451.jpg&amp;w=1484" data-low-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs121448320451.jpg&amp;w=480" data-raw-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs121448320451.jpg" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/23/Others/Images/2015-11-23/rs121448320451.jpg&amp;w=60"/><br/> <span class="pb-caption">The giant boulders of Eleuthera that have sparked a great debate among scientists about their origin. On the left is ‘The Bull’ (2,000 tons) and on the right is ‘The Cow’ (1,000 tons). (Charles Ommanney for The Washington Post)</span> </div> <p>The paper contains many ideas and departures, but the key one is its suggestion of the possibility of greater sea level rise in this century than forecast by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p> <p>“The models that were run for the IPCC report did not include ice melt,” Hansen said at a news conference regarding the new paper Monday. “And we also conclude that most models, ours included, have excessive small scale mixing, and that tends to limit the effect of this freshwater lens on the ocean surface from melting of Greenland and Antarctica.”</p> <p>There is a great deal at stake. Hansen has <a href="http://ourchildrenstrust.org/sites/default/files/15.08.12.HansenExpertDecSupportingYouth.pdf">cited</a> the paper in court proceedings in a case playing out in Oregon, where a series of young plaintiffs, including his granddaughter Sophie, are suing the United States for violating their constitutional rights by allowing fossil fuel burning. While scientists will have to digest the new version of the paper, when the initial draft paper was released, at the website of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, it prompted both scientific praise and also major skepticism.</p> <p>David Archer, a geoscientist at the University of Chicago and a reviewer for the first round of the paper, <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/C5209/2015/acpd-15-C5209-2015.pdf">called it</a> “another Hansen masterwork of scholarly synthesis, modeling virtuosity, and insight, with profound implications.” But Peter Thorne, another official reviewer and a climate researcher with the National University of Ireland Maynooth, <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/C6089/2015/acpd-15-C6089-2015.pdf">wrote that</a> “it is far from certain that the results contended shall match what will happen in the real-world.” Thorne also expressed his “personal discomfort at the paper being openly and actively publicized before the discussion period is complete.”</p> <p>Michael Mann, a Pennsylvania State University climate scientist familiar with the original study, said: “Near as I can tell, the issues that caused me concern originally still remain in the revised manuscript. Namely, the projected amounts of meltwater seem unphysically large, and the ocean component of their model doesn’t resolve key wind-driven current systems (e.g. the Gulf Stream) which help transport heat poleward. That makes northern hemisphere temperatures in their study too sensitive to changes in the  Atlantic meridional overturning ocean circulation,” the scientific name for the ocean circulation in the Atlantic that, the study suggests, could shut down.</p> <p>However, another Penn State researcher, glaciologist Richard Alley, said by email that “though this is one paper, it usefully reminds us that large and rapid changes are possible, and it raises important research questions as to what those changes might mean if they were to occur.  But, the paper does not include enough ice-sheet physics to tell us how much how rapidly is how likely.”</p> <div class="inline-content inline-video"> <div class="posttv-video-embed powa" data-ad-bar="1" data-aspect-ratio="0.5625" data-blurb="1" data-live="0" data-object-id="567826e8e4b0dbf84f5a7412" data-org="wapo" data-playthrough="1" data-uuid="d5c0084c-a7fe-11e5-b596-113f59ee069a" data-youtube-id=""> <script async="" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/player/prod/PoWaLoaderWapo.js?_=20180208"></script> </div> <div class="inline-video-caption"> <span class="pb-caption">A new study by NASA scientists has revealed that climate change is increasing the temperature levels in lakes across the world. (Reuters)</span> </div> </div> <div class="flex-embed-dummy-script"><script charset="utf-8"></script></div> <p><strong>Read more at Energy &amp; Environment:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/21/the-incredible-planetary-consequences-of-a-vegetarian-diet/">The profound planetary consequences of eating less meat</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/22/this-little-flea-and-its-huge-appetite-could-ruin-the-great-lakes/">This little flea — and its huge appetite — could ruin the Great Lakes</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/21/this-huge-change-in-how-we-get-energy-is-coming-much-faster-than-expected/">This huge change in how we get energy is coming much faster than expected</a></p> <p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/26/ice-worlds/">The great thaw: ‘If you want to see it, you’d better hurry. 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        function injectFeatureDom(id, featureRendering) {
            var element = d.getElementById(id);
            var resources = featureRendering.pageResources || {};
            element.outerHTML = featureRendering.rendering;
            element = d.getElementById(id); //update the element
            var scripts = Array.prototype.slice.call(element.getElementsByTagName("script"));
            for (var i = 0; i < scripts.length; i++) {
                if (scripts[i].src != "") {
                    var s = d.createElement("script");
                    s.setAttribute("src", scripts[i].src);
                    d.body.appendChild(s);
                }
                else {
                    window.pageBuilder._executeAsyncFeatureScripts(scripts[i].innerHTML); //eval isn't evil always.
                }
            }
            for(var file in resources) {
                if(resources.hasOwnProperty(file) && file.endsWith(".js")) {
                    var s1 = d.createElement("script");
                    s1.setAttribute("src", resources[file]);
                    d.body.appendChild(s1);
                }
            }
            window.pageBuilder.featureLoaded(element);
        }
        var url = _context + "/api/v2/render/feature/"+id+"?rid="+_rid+"&contentUri="+_uri;
        window.pageBuilder._getJson(url, function(obj) { injectFeatureDom(id, obj); });
    };

window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChain = window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChain || function (id) {
        var d = window.document;
        function injectChainDom(id, apiResponse) {
            var element = d.getElementById(id);
            var resources = apiResponse.pageResources || {};
            element.outerHTML = apiResponse.rendering;
            element = d.getElementById(id); //update the element
            var scripts = Array.prototype.slice.call(element.getElementsByTagName("script"));
            for (var i = 0; i < scripts.length; i++) {
                if (scripts[i].src != "") {
                    var s = d.createElement("script");
                    s.setAttribute("src", scripts[i].src);
                    d.body.appendChild(s);
                }
                else {
                    window.pageBuilder._executeAsyncFeatureScripts(scripts[i].innerHTML); //eval isn't evil always.
                }
            }
            for(var file in resources) {
                if(resources.hasOwnProperty(file) && file.endsWith(".js")) {
                    var s1 = d.createElement("script");
                    s1.setAttribute("src", resources[file]);
                    d.body.appendChild(s1);
                }
            }
            window.pageBuilder.chainLoaded(element,apiResponse);
        }
        var url = _context + "/api/v2/render/chain/"+id+"?rid="+_rid+"&contentUri="+_uri;
        window.pageBuilder._getJson(url, function(obj) { injectChainDom(id, obj); });
    };

window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncFeatures = window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncFeatures || function () {
        var d = window.document;
        var scriptsToAdd = [];
        var featuresLoaded = [];
        function injectAsyncFeatures(apiResp){
            for(var fid in apiResp){
                if (!apiResp.hasOwnProperty(fid)) continue;

                var element = d.getElementById(fid);
                var resources = apiResp[fid].pageResources || {};
                element.outerHTML = apiResp[fid].rendering;
                element = d.getElementById(fid); //update the element
                var scripts = Array.prototype.slice.call(element.getElementsByTagName("script"));
                for (var i = 0; i < scripts.length; i++) {
                    if (scripts[i].src != "") {
                        var s = d.createElement("script");
                        s.setAttribute("src", scripts[i].src);
                        d.body.appendChild(s);
                    }
                    else {
                        window.pageBuilder._executeAsyncFeatureScripts(scripts[i].innerHTML); //eval isn't evil always.
                    }
                }
                for(var file in resources) {
                    if(resources.hasOwnProperty(file) && file.endsWith(".js")) {
                        resources[file].forEach(function(src){
                            if (scriptsToAdd.indexOf(src) === -1) { scriptsToAdd.push(src) }
                        });
                    }
                }
                featuresLoaded.push(element);
            }
            scriptsToAdd.forEach(function (src) {
                var s = d.createElement("script");
                s.setAttribute("src", src);
                d.body.appendChild(s);
            });
            featuresLoaded.forEach(function(element){
                window.pageBuilder.featureLoaded(element);
            });
        }
    var url = _context + "/api/v2/async/features?rid="+_rid+"&contentUri="+_uri;
    window.pageBuilder._getJson(url, function(resp) { injectAsyncFeatures(resp)});
};
window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChains = window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChains || function () {
        var d = window.document;
        var chains = d.getElementsByClassName("pb-async pb-chain");
        var ids = [].slice.call(chains).map(function (node) { return node.id; });
        ids.forEach(function(id) {
            window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChain(id);
        });
    };

window.pageBuilder.loadAsync = window.pageBuilder.loadAsync || function(){
        window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncFeatures();
        window.pageBuilder.loadAsyncChains();
};

window.pageBuilder.loadAsync();

</script>