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	Early, I know, so if it&#039;s out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidan...">
			
		
	

	
		
			
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	Early, I know, so if it&#039;s out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidan...">
			
		
	

	
		
			
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    "discussionUrl": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/",
    "name": "Harvey - Main Thread",
    "headline": "Harvey - Main Thread",
    "text": "\n\tEarly, I know, so if it\u0027s out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\tFirst critical thing I\u0027ll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\nTropical Weather Outlook\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nFor the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:\n\nThe National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical\nDepression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of\nthe southeastern Bahamas.\n\n1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa\nis forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge\nwith a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo\nVerde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive\nfor gradual development of the system while it moves westward to\nwest-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern\nAtlantic.\n* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.\n* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.\n\nPublic Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO\nheader WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.\nForecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under\nWMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.\n\nForecaster Roberts\n",
    "dateCreated": "2017-08-13T14:40:10+0000",
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    "comment": [
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586407",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "WxWatcher007",
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                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/9730-wxwatcher007/"
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            "dateCreated": "2017-08-13T14:40:10+0000",
            "text": "\n\tEarly, I know, so if it\u0027s out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\tFirst critical thing I\u0027ll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\nTropical Weather Outlook\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nFor the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:\n\nThe National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical\nDepression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of\nthe southeastern Bahamas.\n\n1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa\nis forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge\nwith a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo\nVerde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive\nfor gradual development of the system while it moves westward to\nwest-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern\nAtlantic.\n* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.\n* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.\n\nPublic Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO\nheader WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.\nForecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under\nWMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.\n\nForecaster Roberts\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586514",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NorthArlington101",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_12/happy_mr_snowflake_by_veroro.thumb.jpg.b8a1665474f9c1c9119d0b58e03b10bd.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/9980-northarlington101/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-13T22:49:14+0000",
            "text": "\n\t18z DOOM run\n\n\n\n\t\u00a0\n\n\n\n\t\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586515",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NorthArlington101",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_12/happy_mr_snowflake_by_veroro.thumb.jpg.b8a1665474f9c1c9119d0b58e03b10bd.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/9980-northarlington101/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-13T22:52:00+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tMakes its landfall (or a near-landfall) at NC/SC border at 971mb. Then lurks off the coast for hours. Surely tons of imaginary erosion. Off in fantasy land. If you want to DOOM-cast even harder, note that the model has it gain 30mb (952\u00a0to 988)\u00a0between 240-252, probably because it shifts to a lower res in the long range.\u00a0\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586535",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "MJV",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_08/VillardTwo2017.thumb.png.84c9c80d935c6867c9c89a3152f5a167.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/15522-mjv/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T00:10:48+0000",
            "text": "\ttry www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current and in 4-5 days---maybe we get something in the Atlantic Basin---that makes a serious run\u00a0this way.\u00a0That\u0027s a nice solution---though.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586546",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "bdgwx",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/profile/photo-thumb-10150.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/10150-bdgwx/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T01:28:07+0000",
            "text": "\tThe GFS actually has 91L tracking very close to the path totality. I wonder...what are the odds...ah nevermind.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586547",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T01:28:08+0000",
            "text": "\tThe track on the 18z GFS is reminiscint of Matthew.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586561",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "Diggiebot",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/profile/photo-thumb-14313.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14313-diggiebot/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T02:05:46+0000",
            "text": "\tLet\u0027s actually get a cyclone before we worry about track. Pretty big differences in the euro and gfs and we all know how well the gfs has done with the tropics lately. I\u0027d side more with the euro for now.\u00a0\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586571",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "Snow88",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_11/snow_park_avatar_picture_71241.thumb.jpg.2aee5466e94250e126f9efb6ce6b964f.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/186-snow88/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T02:31:57+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tEvery model shows the storm gaining strength. Long ways out but this might get interesting soon.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586676",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "bigtenfan",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/cd8afd544b32c2d3e21293556db4623a?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/B_member_2832.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/2832-bigtenfan/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T12:45:49+0000",
            "text": "\n\tFrom this distance the forecast will change many times.\n\n\n\n\tThat said it is interesting that\u00a0 the GFS 18z had a doomsday storm for the Carolinas, the 00z has a somewhat weaker storm just off the NC coast and the 06Z looks to have lost the storm all together.\n\n\n\n\tThe Euro has been somewhat more consistent with yesterday\u0027s 12z carrying the storm through the Florida straights heading into the GOM and the 00Z having the storm into the GOM albeit taking a slightly more southern route to get there.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586695",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
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            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T13:35:38+0000",
            "text": "\tSince the gfs says the same\u00a0 old dry air and shear keeps the season dead\u00a0 im ignoring the Euro. When both models agree on a real storm developing then we should watch.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586702",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
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            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T13:47:09+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tThe GFS has been consistent in showing development. Unless 12z continues to dissipate the system we\u0027re going to assume that the 06z run was a fluke.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586709",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "bigtenfan",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/cd8afd544b32c2d3e21293556db4623a?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/B_member_2832.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/2832-bigtenfan/"
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            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T14:17:42+0000",
            "text": "\tWhile i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
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            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586725",
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                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
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                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T14:39:39+0000",
            "text": "\n\tWhile the 06z GFS may have backed off on development, look at the individual 06z GEFS members.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\n\t\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586732",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "bdgwx",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/profile/photo-thumb-10150.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/10150-bdgwx/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T14:54:14+0000",
            "text": "\t0Z UKMET has it tracking toward the southern end of the Yucatan by D7.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586779",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T16:38:13+0000",
            "text": "\tThat\u0027s two runs in a row that the GFS dissipates the system. I see no reason to change my overall thinking which is that we\u0027ll see a TC in less than 7 days near the islands.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586795",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T17:36:12+0000",
            "text": "\tFWIW the 12z HWRF takes this down to a 969mb cane near the Lesser Antilles on Friday.\u00a0\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586818",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "eurojosh",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_09/meh-cat_featured.thumb.png.8e029a68c5a190248b406f687b6028a7.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/1933-eurojosh/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T18:56:56+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tEuro shows a wide recurve this time. \u00a0Still a few days\u00a0before we have any real consensus on this.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586831",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T19:27:31+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tWrong wave. 91L remains weak and enters the Caribbean, eventually making landfall as a weak system in Central America. The wave behind 91L develops into a strong hurricane which recurves near 60W.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586860",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T20:37:03+0000",
            "text": "\tdevelopment delayed means no development. Nothing\u00a0 of interest will develop in the atlantic desert. Until both models agree on development its all fantasy. However many invests develop they will be\u00a0 no different that 99L. If they ever develop at all it will be after they escape the desert or get\u00a0 into the BOC. I sure hope\u00a0 no one will repeat that\u00a0 in 2005\u00a0 we had the same number of storms. This season cant even begin to compare with 2005.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586868",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:07:49+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tAren\u0027t you the same poster that said\u00a099L wouldn\u0027t develop?\u00a0\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586870",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:09:28+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tI think by tonight\u00a0 or tues we will see the Euro cave to the GFS and drop any tropical development.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586873",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:14:33+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tThe GEFS ensembles love 91L, with several individual members bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong system. The EPS also maintains development. Until the ensembles completely lose the system I wouldn\u0027t be tossing any one solution.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586874",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:17:51+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tThats the way it usually\u00a0 works.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586875",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:19:49+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tI think the lack of exciting storms to track recently has skewed your judgement with this upcoming pattern. The odds are certainly against a major impact in the United States, but we should get at least one or two significant storms in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 weeks based on the conditions. The upcoming Kelvin wave is going to help.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586876",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:19:58+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tYea, and it didnt do anything until it got\u00a0 out\u00a0 of the tropics. Certainly of\u00a0 no interest though i did also say several times\u00a0 if\u00a0 it managed to struggle\u00a0 out\u00a0 of the desert\u00a0 it might\u00a0 develop some. the atlantic\u00a0 is totally\u00a0 dominated by dry sinking air.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586877",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:23:05+0000",
            "text": "\n\n\tI seriously doubt a\u00a0 kelvin wave can overcome desert\u00a0 like\u00a0 conditions. indeed the saharan desert seems to have found a\u00a0 home\u00a0 in the atlantic tropics for years now. I wouldnt be shocked to see another 1 day storm that falls apart. I also think we could get a storm after its\u00a0 out\u00a0 of the tropics and turning east out\u00a0 in nowhere.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586879",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T21:32:14+0000",
            "text": "\n\tJoe Bastardi\u200fVerified account\u00a0@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago\n\n\n\n\tLike Gert etc, dont believe GFS or the euro getting rid of what I think will be Harvey. Pattern ripe as waves come west now\n\n\n\n\t\u00a0\n\n\n\n\tI guess the\u00a0 pattern is ripe if you discount the dry sinking air.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586888",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "SteveVa",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/e728434e7077a5f802703cd874f5f6a3?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/S_member_14076.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14076-steveva/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T22:20:25+0000",
            "text": "\n\tWhen I read posters like you, ldub23, I feel like I\u0027m browsing the Wunderground blog (or whatever it\u0027s called now.)\n\n\n\n\tOntopic:\n\n\n\n\t91L is a pretty big system with competing vortices which is always hard for models to handle. I don\u0027t think a lot of people actually believed in really fast\u00a0consolidation as was depicted in previous runs of the models. We just have to wait and see, but I personally expect Harvey to come out of 91L.\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586894",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "NJwx85",
                "image": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/wedding555.jpg.f2b1298215ea18d898140053f1834201.thumb.jpg.72c533e8343763f46e1b5270bb97e686.jpg",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14527-njwx85/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-14T22:35:26+0000",
            "text": "\tThe 18z GFS now develops 91L, albeit it stays relatively weak, but it\u0027s distinctly there.\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "Comment",
            "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment\u0026comment=4586931",
            "author": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "ldub23",
                "image": "https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/6945e8a8b5c06d96a506bac9256e3b01?d=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_12/L_member_14667.png",
                "url": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/14667-ldub23/"
            },
            "dateCreated": "2017-08-15T00:28:10+0000",
            "text": "\n\tWill have to see if it becomes\u00a0 consistent\u00a0 or\u00a0 if the euro drops\u00a0 it. lots\u00a0 of dry air to deal with\n\n\n\n\t\u00a0\n\n",
            "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/"
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						<span>Harvey - Main Thread</span>
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			<span class='ipsType_normal'>From genesis to dissipation.</span><br>
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586407" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-13T14:40:10Z' title='08/13/2017 02:40  PM' data-short='Aug 13'>August 13, 2017</time></a>
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<p>
	Early, I know, so if it's out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days. 
</p>

<p>
	First critical thing I'll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season. 
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<pre style="color:#000000;">Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Roberts</pre>


			
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		<span class='ft'>Location:</span><span class='fc'><a href='http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Arlington, VA (359ft)'>Arlington, VA (359ft)</a></span>
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586514" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-13T22:49:14Z' title='08/13/2017 10:49  PM' data-short='Aug 13'>August 13, 2017</time></a>
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	18z DOOM run
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		<span class='ft'>Location:</span><span class='fc'><a href='http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Arlington, VA (359ft)'>Arlington, VA (359ft)</a></span>
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586515" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-13T22:52:00Z' title='08/13/2017 10:52  PM' data-short='Aug 13'>August 13, 2017</time></a>
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		5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:
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			18z DOOM run
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<p>
	Makes its landfall (or a near-landfall) at NC/SC border at 971mb. Then lurks off the coast for hours. Surely tons of imaginary erosion. Off in fantasy land. If you want to DOOM-cast even harder, note that the model has it gain 30mb (952 to 988) between 240-252, probably because it shifts to a lower res in the long range. 
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		<span class='ft'>Location:</span><span class='fc'><a href='http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Panther Run'>Panther Run</a></span>
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	try www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current and in 4-5 days---maybe we get something in the Atlantic Basin---that makes a serious run this way. That's a nice solution---though.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586546" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T01:28:07Z' title='08/14/2017 01:28  AM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	The GFS actually has 91L tracking very close to the path totality. I wonder...what are the odds...ah nevermind.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586547" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T01:28:08Z' title='08/14/2017 01:28  AM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	The track on the 18z GFS is reminiscint of Matthew.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586561" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T02:05:46Z' title='08/14/2017 02:05  AM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	Let's actually get a cyclone before we worry about track. Pretty big differences in the euro and gfs and we all know how well the gfs has done with the tropics lately. I'd side more with the euro for now. 
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586571" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T02:31:57Z' title='08/14/2017 02:31  AM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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			Let's actually get a cyclone before we worry about track. Pretty big differences in the euro and gfs and we all know how well the gfs has done with the tropics lately. I'd side more with the euro for now. 
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<p>
	Every model shows the storm gaining strength. Long ways out but this might get interesting soon.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586676" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T12:45:49Z' title='08/14/2017 12:45  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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<p>
	From this distance the forecast will change many times.
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<p>
	That said it is interesting that  the GFS 18z had a doomsday storm for the Carolinas, the 00z has a somewhat weaker storm just off the NC coast and the 06Z looks to have lost the storm all together.
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<p>
	The Euro has been somewhat more consistent with yesterday's 12z carrying the storm through the Florida straights heading into the GOM and the 00Z having the storm into the GOM albeit taking a slightly more southern route to get there.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586695" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T13:35:38Z' title='08/14/2017 01:35  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	Since the gfs says the same  old dry air and shear keeps the season dead  im ignoring the Euro. When both models agree on a real storm developing then we should watch.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586702" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T13:47:09Z' title='08/14/2017 01:47  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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		10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:
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			Since the gfs says the same  old dry air and shear keeps the season dead  im ignoring the Euro. When both models agree on a real storm developing then we should watch.
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<p>
	The GFS has been consistent in showing development. Unless 12z continues to dissipate the system we're going to assume that the 06z run was a fluke.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586709" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T14:17:42Z' title='08/14/2017 02:17  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	While i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK
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		<span class='ft'>Location:</span><span class='fc'><a href='http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Mahwah, NJ'>Mahwah, NJ</a></span>
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586725" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T14:39:39Z' title='08/14/2017 02:39  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	While the 06z GFS may have backed off on development, look at the individual 06z GEFS members. 
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	0Z UKMET has it tracking toward the southern end of the Yucatan by D7.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586779" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T16:38:13Z' title='08/14/2017 04:38  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	That's two runs in a row that the GFS dissipates the system. I see no reason to change my overall thinking which is that we'll see a TC in less than 7 days near the islands.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586795" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T17:36:12Z' title='08/14/2017 05:36  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	FWIW the 12z HWRF takes this down to a 969mb cane near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. 
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586818" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T18:56:56Z' title='08/14/2017 06:56  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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<blockquote class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote="" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" data-ipsquote-contentcommentid="4586709" data-ipsquote-contentid="50179" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-timestamp="1502720262" data-ipsquote-userid="2832" data-ipsquote-username="bigtenfan">
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		4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:
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			While i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK
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	Euro shows a wide recurve this time.  Still a few days before we have any real consensus on this.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586831" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T19:27:31Z' title='08/14/2017 07:27  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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<blockquote class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote="" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" data-ipsquote-contentcommentid="4586818" data-ipsquote-contentid="50179" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-timestamp="1502737016" data-ipsquote-userid="1933" data-ipsquote-username="eurojosh">
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		29 minutes ago, eurojosh said:
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			Euro shows a wide recurve this time.  Still a few days before we have any real consensus on this.
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	Wrong wave. 91L remains weak and enters the Caribbean, eventually making landfall as a weak system in Central America. The wave behind 91L develops into a strong hurricane which recurves near 60W.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586860" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T20:37:03Z' title='08/14/2017 08:37  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	development delayed means no development. Nothing  of interest will develop in the atlantic desert. Until both models agree on development its all fantasy. However many invests develop they will be  no different that 99L. If they ever develop at all it will be after they escape the desert or get  into the BOC. I sure hope  no one will repeat that  in 2005  we had the same number of storms. This season cant even begin to compare with 2005.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586868" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:07:49Z' title='08/14/2017 09:07  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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		29 minutes ago, ldub23 said:
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			development delayed means no development. Nothing  of interest will develop in the atlantic desert. Until both models agree on development its all fantasy. However many invests develop they will be  no different that 99L. If they ever develop at all it will be after they escape the desert or get  into the BOC. I sure hope  no one will repeat that  in 2005  we had the same number of storms. This season cant even begin to compare with 2005.
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	Aren't you the same poster that said 99L wouldn't develop? 
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586870" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:09:28Z' title='08/14/2017 09:09  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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<blockquote class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote="" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" data-ipsquote-contentcommentid="4586779" data-ipsquote-contentid="50179" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-timestamp="1502728693" data-ipsquote-userid="14527" data-ipsquote-username="NJwx85">
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		4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
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			That's two runs in a row that the GFS dissipates the system. I see no reason to change my overall thinking which is that we'll see a TC in less than 7 days near the islands.
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<p>
	I think by tonight  or tues we will see the Euro cave to the GFS and drop any tropical development.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586873" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:14:33Z' title='08/14/2017 09:14  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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		3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:
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			I think by tonight  or tues we will see the Euro cave to the GFS and drop any tropical development.
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<p>
	The GEFS ensembles love 91L, with several individual members bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong system. The EPS also maintains development. Until the ensembles completely lose the system I wouldn't be tossing any one solution.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586874" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:17:51Z' title='08/14/2017 09:17  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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		2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
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			The GEFS ensembles love 91L, with several individual members bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong system. The EPS also maintains development. Until the ensembles completely lose the system I wouldn't be tossing any one solution.
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<p>
	Thats the way it usually  works.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586875" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:19:49Z' title='08/14/2017 09:19  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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			Thats the way it usually  works.
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<p>
	I think the lack of exciting storms to track recently has skewed your judgement with this upcoming pattern. The odds are certainly against a major impact in the United States, but we should get at least one or two significant storms in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 weeks based on the conditions. The upcoming Kelvin wave is going to help.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586876" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:19:58Z' title='08/14/2017 09:19  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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<blockquote class="ipsQuote" data-ipsquote="" data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" data-ipsquote-contentcommentid="4586868" data-ipsquote-contentid="50179" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-timestamp="1502744869" data-ipsquote-userid="14527" data-ipsquote-username="NJwx85">
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		10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
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			Aren't you the same poster that said 99L wouldn't develop? 
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<p>
	Yea, and it didnt do anything until it got  out  of the tropics. Certainly of  no interest though i did also say several times  if  it managed to struggle  out  of the desert  it might  develop some. the atlantic  is totally  dominated by dry sinking air.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586877" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:23:05Z' title='08/14/2017 09:23  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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			I think the lack of exciting storms to track recently has skewed your judgement with this upcoming pattern. The odds are certainly against a major impact in the United States, but we should get at least one or two significant storms in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 weeks based on the conditions. The upcoming Kelvin wave is going to help.
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<p>
	I seriously doubt a  kelvin wave can overcome desert  like  conditions. indeed the saharan desert seems to have found a  home  in the atlantic tropics for years now. I wouldnt be shocked to see another 1 day storm that falls apart. I also think we could get a storm after its  out  of the tropics and turning east out  in nowhere.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586879" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T21:32:14Z' title='08/14/2017 09:32  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
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	Like Gert etc, dont believe GFS or the euro getting rid of what I think will be Harvey. Pattern ripe as waves come west now
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	I guess the  pattern is ripe if you discount the dry sinking air.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586888" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-14T22:20:25Z' title='08/14/2017 10:20  PM' data-short='Aug 14'>August 14, 2017</time></a>
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	When I read posters like you, ldub23, I feel like I'm browsing the Wunderground blog (or whatever it's called now.)
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<p>
	Ontopic:
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<p>
	91L is a pretty big system with competing vortices which is always hard for models to handle. I don't think a lot of people actually believed in really fast consolidation as was depicted in previous runs of the models. We just have to wait and see, but I personally expect Harvey to come out of 91L.
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	The 18z GFS now develops 91L, albeit it stays relatively weak, but it's distinctly there.
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			<a href="https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-harvey-main-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=4586931" class="ipsType_blendLinks">Posted <time datetime='2017-08-15T00:28:10Z' title='08/15/2017 12:28  AM' data-short='Aug 15'>August 15, 2017</time></a>
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	Will have to see if it becomes  consistent  or  if the euro drops  it. lots  of dry air to deal with
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