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<title>	Why New Orleans should be paying attention to Tropical Depression Harvey | 						NOLA.com</title>


	
	

	
	
	
	
																														
	

	
																														

	
		
	
	
	

	
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                <h1 id="articleHeadline" class="p-name">Why New Orleans should be paying attention to Tropical Depression Harvey</h1>
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                            <time id="dateline__updated" class="dateline__updated" datetime="2017-08-23T19:40" aria-label="Article Updated Date and Time">Updated on August 23, 2017 at  7:40 PM</time>
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                Infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Depression Harvey building strength in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, August 23, 2017. (Image courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)</span></div><figcaption class="mmm__caption" id="mmm__caption">Infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Depression Harvey building strength in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, August 23, 2017. (Image courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
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        <p><a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/">Tropical Depression Harvey</a>&nbsp;has put local forecasters and emergency officials on high alert amid the prospect of heavy rainfall headed for Southeast Louisiana starting Friday (Aug. 25). Expected to make landfall over central Texas on Friday, Harvey is then expected to&nbsp;head east across Louisiana&nbsp;over the next week.</p>
<p>Harvey hadn't moved much Wednesday, according to an <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/231731.shtml">advisory</a>&nbsp;issued around 12:30 p.m. by the National Hurricane Center. But once the storm hits Texas, potentially as a Category 1 hurricane, how exactly will Harvey's reach extend to New Orleans?</p>
<p>Phil Grigsby, a forecaster with the <a href="http://www.weather.gov/lix/">National Weather Service</a>&nbsp;in Slidell, says a southerly wind flow accompanied by moisture pumping up from the Gulf of Mexico will situate the New Orleans area and Southeast Louisiana on the "wet side" of Harvey.&nbsp;Along with this wet southerly wind, a strong area of low pressure is projected to cause a&nbsp;"lift" effect that will spur quick-forming clouds stuffed with rain over southern Louisiana.</p>
<p>In sum, the potential deluge sitting on the Texas-based storm's eastern shoulder could arrive as "repeated rounds of rain," summoned by onshore southerly winds continually blowing across New Orleans, Grigsby said.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/storm_harvey_gulf_louisiana.html#incart_river_index" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
<p>The main concern, however, is that Harvey is forecast to stall for several days over Texas, with rainfall drenching its eastern shoulder in Southeast Louisiana. That's because a ridge of high pressure building from the southwest part of the country and extending into Texas will "act like a wall" blocking Harvey from moving out of the area, Grigsby said.</p>
<p>"It looks like Harvey could get stuck across Texas over the weekend," echoed FOX 8 Chief Meteorologist David Bernard.&nbsp;"A dip in the jet stream moving across the Northern Plains may try and pick the storm up forcing it east into Louisiana by late Sunday and early next week."</p>
<p>Bernard said the precise amount of rain that we can expect across Southeast Louisiana will depend on the size and eventual track of Harvey which will likely become clearer&nbsp;by Friday morning.</p>
<p>For now, meteorologists&nbsp;expect&nbsp;New Orleans&nbsp;could see between 5 and 10 inches of total rainfall from roughly Saturday through at least next Tuesday, Grigsby said. And while that total 5 to 10 posible inches of rain would be spread out over a period of several days,&nbsp;Grigsby cautioned that some spots across the New Orleans area&nbsp;could see "locally higher amounts."</p>
<div id="asset-23284345" class="entry_widget_full entry_widget_"><span class="adv-photo-full"><a href="http://media.nola.com/hurricane_impact/photo/image3.png" target="_blank" class="full-size-popup"><img src="/static/common/img/blank.gif" class="lazy adv-photo" data-position="article-full" data-original="http://media.nola.com/hurricane_impact/photo/23284345-standard.png" alt="image3.png"></a><span class="photo-data"><span class="caption">This informational graphic&nbsp;outlines the risks to Southeast Louisiana brought by Tropical Depression Harvey over the weekend. (Image courtesy of the National Weather Service)</span><br></span></span>&nbsp;</div>
<p>"That's the same process that happened last August," said Grigsby, referring to heavy rains that caused <a href="http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/louisiana_flood_of_2016_one_ye.html#incart_river_index_topics">historic flooding</a>&nbsp;across the Baton Rouge area. "To put it in perspective."</p>
<p>Grigsby clarified that last August, the storm sat directly over the Baton Rouge area. This time, he said the storm will center over the Houston area, bringing the potential for dozens of inches of rain to fall in Texas but likely not in those high amounts over New Orleans.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/louisiana_flood_of_2016_one_ye.html#incart_river_index_topics" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
<p>Sometime Tuesday, forecasters expect a trough of low pressure to hasten down and break up the high-pressure ridge "wall" impeding Harvey's trek eastward across the Gulf states. How long the rains fall, Grisgby said, will depend on when that low-pressure trough arrives.</p>
<p>In the meantime, local officials are prepping New Orleans and the rest of Louisiana for Harvey. On Tuesday, Gov. <a href="https://topics.nola.com/tag/john%20bel%20edwards">John Bel Edwards</a>&nbsp;at&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/edwards_category_1_hurricane_t.html">a joint press conference</a>&nbsp;with <a href="https://topics.nola.com/tag/mitch%20landrieu">Mayor Mitch Landrieu</a>&nbsp;said&nbsp;that state and local emergency preparedness agencies were <a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/landrieu_new_orleans_evacuatio.html#incart_river_index_topics">mustering</a>&nbsp;for a severe weather response.</p>
<p>"We are going to rely upon the experience we have in Louisiana preparing for and responding to disasters, which is more than we would like to have," Edwards said Tuesday. "It certainly comes in handy when we need it."</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/landrieu_new_orleans_evacuatio.html#incart_river_index_topics" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
<p>On top of typical flood risks associated with heavy rains, New Orleans will likely be facing a diminished pump and drainage capacity should Harvey's rains pound the city. So far, Landrieu's office says the city has repaired 3 out of the 17 pumps down during heavy rains Aug. 5 that <a href="http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_new_orleans_saturday.html#incart_river_index">flooded the city</a>&nbsp;- though another pump in Algiers was recently placed offline for routine maintenance. That makes <a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_drainage_crisis_up_1.html#incart_river_index">105 out of a total 120 pumps</a>&nbsp;in the city serviceable should Harvey's rains fall hard.</p>
<p>Despite concerns, Grigsby says the anticipated rains should be spread out enough from Friday through Tuesday to eschew the potential for major flooding in New Orleans. Flooding could become a serious issue if at least 3 to 4 inches were to fall over a two-hour period.</p>
<p>If strong winds reach the city,&nbsp;they also could down power lines that Entergy wouldn't be able to repair until the winds die down to below 40 mph -- which could also impact the city's backup power for its pumps.</p>
<p>As for potential flooding, Dr. Rick Knabb, the former executive director of the National Hurricane Center and current tropical program manager for the Weather Channel, says the time is now for residents in southern Texas and Louisiana to have a plan in place for how to either wait out the storm safely or skip town.</p>
<p>"History teaches us that water takes the most lives in tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes," Knabb wrote in an email statement Tuesday. "Major impacts can occur even if it's not a major hurricane - category three or stronger on the wind scale."</p>
<p>Even so, Grigsby stressed it's still too early to tell what exactly Harvey will do, regardless of what forecast models may project right now.</p>
<p>"There is still some uncertainty on exactly the overall forecast," he said.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_new_orleans_saturday.html#incart_river_index" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
        
        
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