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  <h1 class="page-title"><span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Goldman Says Hurricane Harvey Will Reduce Q3 GDP; JPMorgan Says It Will Boost It</span>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>There are still two to three days before the peak flooding - and damage - in Houston arrives, yet already Wall Street is trying to calculate how much the worst natural disaster in decades befalling the 4th largest American city will impact US GDP. Or rather boost it, because in two notes out late in the day Monday, one from Goldman and one from JPM, the authors come to two polar opposite conclusions: <strong>Goldman claims that the Houston natural disaster will reduce Q3 GDP by as much as 0.2%, while JPMorgan predicts that the "net impact on Q3 and Q4 GDP should be positive."</strong></p><p>How do the two arguably most sophisticated investment banks reach such diametrically opposing conclusions? Here is the answer, straight from the horse's mouth. First, Goldman:</p><blockquote><p>Preliminary estimates suggest that total losses could reach $30bn (0.16% of GDP), but the uncertainty around these figures is considerable, with estimates ranging from under $10bn to as high as $100bn. Assuming $30bn, Hurricane Harvey would become the 9th largest since World War II—and roughly 40% the size of Sandy in 2012 and 15% the size of Katrina in 2005—in terms of property damage as a percent of GDP (see Exhibit 1). </p><p> </p><p><em><strong>Exhibit 1: Hurricane Harvey Could Be the 9th Largest since World War II in <br />Terms of US Property Damage</strong></em></p><p> </p><p><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/harvey%20damage.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/harvey%20damage_0.png" width="500" height="288" /></a></strong> </p><p> </p><p>These property damages will not be directly visible in most economic indicators, which generally focus on the flow of production, sales, and employment (as opposed to the stock of existing wealth). In terms of economic activity, natural disasters typically have two important and generally offsetting effects in the regions affected: (1) <strong>sharp, temporary declines in demand and production, followed by a rebound to the pre-disaster baseline</strong>, and (2) a boost to output from the rebuilding of damaged property and from a catch-up in economic activity displaced during the disaster.</p></blockquote><p>Before we get to the bottom line impact on GDP, Goldman considers the impact on other aspects of the economy, such as labor, retail sales, industrial production and construction spending. </p><blockquote><p>In past research, we’ve also found substantial effects on jobless claims, which, for example, increased by 80k in the week after Hurricane Sandy and slowly declined in subsequent weeks. Given the extent of the disruption and damages, we would expect at least some impact from Hurricane Harvey on jobless claims <strong>and on some of the August and September monthly data releases, potentially including retail sales, industrial production, and the various housing indicators. </strong>In terms of the August employment report released this Friday, <strong>the payroll survey period ended two weeks before the hurricane and should not be affected</strong>. We believe it is too early to estimate an impact on the September employment report.</p></blockquote><p>Speaking of Sandy and other prominent U.S. hurricanes, the pattern appears to be uniform: the exhibit below revisits Goldman's analysis of four major economic indicators around 18 major hurricanes, including Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. </p><blockquote><p>While even the medians are noisy, a slowdown often occurs in the month of the hurricane in retail sales, construction spending, and (to a lesser extent) industrial production. Growth in these indicators tends to rebound significantly to above-trend over the following 2-4 months. In contrast, hours worked—which reflect changes in both nonfarm payrolls and the average workweek—show less consistent effects.</p><p> </p><p><em><strong>Exhibit 2: Retail Sales, Construction Spending, and Industrial Production Growth</strong></em><br /><em><strong>Often Slow Around Major Hurricanes, Relative to Recent Averages</strong></em></p><p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/hurrican%20impact%20on%20economy.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/hurrican%20impact%20on%20economy_0.png" width="500" height="287" /></a></p></blockquote><p>So while superficially, one could assume a "Keynesian broken window fallacy" is all one needs to spin a natural disaster as bullish for the economy, Goldman is at least smart enough not to fall for that trap, and notes that <strong>one critical consideration in this particular case, is the importance of the energy sector in the regions currently affected. </strong></p><blockquote><p>Our commodities team found that Harvey has already significantly disrupted oil refining in Texas, shutting down over 16.5% of total US capacity. Oil and gas production in the region has also declined as a result of the storms. They note that while most of these outages are preventive, the slow-moving nature of the storm and the risk of damage to energy infrastructure suggest these disruptions could persist into September. In Exhibit 3, <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>we estimate that declining energy-sector output could directly reduce Q3 GDP growth by as much as 0.2pp (qoq ar), affecting the inventories and/or consumption components</strong></span>. This assumes a gradual reopening of refineries and oil wells consistent with historical experience (we assume significant disruptions persist for four weeks). <br /><br /><em><strong>Exhibit 3: Declines in Energy Production and Refining Could Reduce Q3 GDP <br />Growth by as Much as 0.2pp</strong></em><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/exhibit_3.img%20%281%29.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/exhibit_3.img%20%281%29_0.png" width="500" height="182" /></a></p></blockquote><p><br />Still, not even Goldman is immune to the fallacies of Keynesian econ 101, and writes that "<em>we would expect the associated drag on Q3 growth to reverse in subsequent quarters (with a roughly offsetting boost to Q4 growth</em>)" and adds that "in the longer run", the overall impact of the hurricane on second-half growth is "<em>uncertain, as the negative effects are likely to be offset by an increase in business investment and construction activity once the storm has passed</em>."</p><blockquote><p>With the caveat that uncertainty remains high, we note the possibility that the hurricane could shift the composition of growth from Q3 to Q4 to some degree, particularly if rebuilding efforts take time to ramp up.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, Goldman expects Harvey to cut Q3 GDP by roughly 0.2%, while boosting Q4 by a similar if not greater amount.</p><p>What about JPM? </p><p>Well, in this case, JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli has decided to skip the entire "dip" phase (or any assessment of what the near halt of local energy infrastructure means for the broader economy), and has proceeded straight to the "broken window fallacy" nirvana: the growth that destruction somehow always guarantees in a Keynesian world (if that was the case, why not just nuke the US and rebuild it from scratch, assuing triple digit GDP growth for decades to come). Here is JPM's base, and so far only, case:</p><blockquote><p>Hurricanes can disrupt economic activity—which subtracts from GDP—and they can destroy capital—which over time will support the flow of GDP as the stock of capital is rebuilt. The disruptive aspect of hurricanes sometimes simply shifts activity from one period to another; this seems most likely the case for goods production and consumption. For example, any lost retail spending during the storm will probably be made up in later periods. Disrupted activity in service-producing sectors, in contrast, may represent real foregone activity not made up later; since services cannot be inventoried, it is harder to smooth consumption over different time periods. In any event, the output and income generated by service-producing sectors is still poorly measured in the US, and we are not convinced we would see the adverse effect of disrupted  serviceproducing activity in the monthly or quarterly data used to estimate GDP. </p><p> </p><p>Another common effect of hurricanes—and Harvey is no exception— is disruption to petroleum refining and natural gas distribution. Gasoline prices and, to a lesser degree, natural gas prices have already moved higher. <strong>This could crimp consumer spending power in the near term. However, if the past is any guide the impact on energy prices should be short-lived as refineries come back on line in coming days and weeks</strong>.</p></blockquote><p>Of course, assuming they come back online in coming days and weeks. So what is JPM's conclusion:</p><blockquote><p>Any assessment of the economic impact of Hurricane Harvey will be inherently subject to a fair degree of uncertainty, given the recency of the event. As a general rule, hurricanes tend to be a short-run depressant and a medium-run boost to economic activity. (Here we should pause to emphasize the usual disclaimer: <strong>economic growth does not always correspond with economic well-being). </strong>Sources within the insurance industry as well as J.P. Morgan's insurance industry research team estimate that the physical damage will be in the $10-$20 billion range. This would put Harvey in the top ten costliest storms, but still well below the $159 billion estimated damage from Katrina. <strong>The midpoint of the $10-$20 billion range is about 0.1%-pt of GDP. Total damage, and total rebuilding, should be greater than this amount, as invariably there will be uninsured losses that will be repaired. </strong>Even taking this into account, <strong>we believe the overall impact on GDP in Q3 and Q4 should be positive but very small</strong>, consistent with the historical experience. For this reason, we are not changing our top-line GDP forecast. While Harvey may not be a game-changer for the expansion, it may leave its mark on the high-frequency economic data.</p></blockquote><p>Ironically, JPM leaves of with an optimistic outlook, despite admitting that the logistical impact to Houston, whose metropolitan area account for $500 billion in output, could be severe in both the short and long term:</p><blockquote><p>We begin by observing how much economic activity normally occurs in the areas affected by the storm. For simplicity, we focus on the Houston metropolitan area given its relative importance in terms of output, but acknowledge that other areas were also affected by Harvey. <strong>The Houston metropolitan area accounted for about $500bn output in 2015 (Figure 1, the latest available data by metro area). This is undoubtedly a meaningful figure—this level of output was close to the total output of Norway as a whole and made the Houston area the fourth largest metropolitan area in terms of output for that year</strong>. But we should remember that US GDP was $18tr that year, with less than 3% of that total coming from the Houston area. </p><p> </p><p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/jpm%20GDP%20harvey%201.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/jpm%20GDP%20harvey%201_0.jpg" width="500" height="287" /></a></p></blockquote><p>Following that assumption that several hundreds billions in lost output should be rounded down, we stopped reading and instead focused on the following twitter comments <a href="https://twitter.com/eriz35/status/902331324475858944">from an environment engineer on twitter, </a>whose prediction of what may very well happen, is far more valuable than either Goldman's of JPM's:</p><p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/hosuting%20is%20fucked.jpg" width="485" height="529" /></p><p> </p></div>
      
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Lost economic activity at refineries, etc. - but a shit-ton of drywall, spackle, glass, carpet, lumber, wet-vac's, etc.Probably a wash (pun intended).</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p> Is Krugman working for JPM now?  I don’t know about the flood waters, but the looters broke a lot of windows.   </p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162058#comment-10162058" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Lost economic activity at</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/ebworthen" class="username">ebworthen</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>my money is on the jews making out like bandits.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162099#comment-10162099" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en"> 
Is Krugman working for JPM</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/manthong" class="username">Manthong</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Analyzing fake/manipulated data is really useful if you're picking between your dick in a grinder and some other option</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162161#comment-10162161" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">my money is on the jews</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/four-chan" class="username">Four chan</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>I've grown wealthy doing opposite of what Goldmansucks recommends.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162161#comment-10162161" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">my money is on the jews</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/four-chan" class="username">Four chan</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Sure - We all knew that Zero Hedge poster would blame the hurricane on the Jews!!!! Now go back to the sewer you climbed out of Four chan --- the gutter is too good for you!</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Crap needs to be replaced and rebuild. Gubernmehnt will give 'grants' and 'minimal yield' loans to anyone with a pulse. This is going to be inflationary and GDP positive, making America great all over.</p>
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Is Krugman working for JPM</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/manthong" class="username">Manthong</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>hmm, don't see JPMorgan in the Cabinet.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162058#comment-10162058" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Lost economic activity at</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/ebworthen" class="username">ebworthen</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Those 30+ billions come out of the stock market, bonds, and other investment vehicles, but flow into the hands that will pump up the value of the  home improvement and disaster restoration companies.    Probably in general, net neutral, but if you produce drywall or sell it, your stock is going to pop, even more than it already has.</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>JP and Goldman couldn't agree on the effect?  I guess they had different ideas on how to spin it to their advantage.  The one place they agreed on is a medium term positive, what a bunch of drivel.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162201#comment-10162201" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Those 30+ billions come out</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/jojo-kracko" class="username">JoJo Kracko</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Harvey will make a Dent in GDP.  Time to turn on the bat signal, Houston.</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>I thought the GS bonuses were the cause of the dent.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162059#comment-10162059" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Harvey will make a Dent in</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/h-h-henry-p-p-p-paulson" class="username">H H Henry P P …</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>YEP.. It will be hard on some big sectors for sure. </p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162059#comment-10162059" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Harvey will make a Dent in</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/h-h-henry-p-p-p-paulson" class="username">H H Henry P P …</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>One is short, one is long...  could it be - a 'real' market!'  Nahhhhh!</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Hell no market. But you can't have everyone crowd one side of the boat at the same time.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162068#comment-10162068" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">One is short, one is long... </a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/nowayjose" class="username">NoWayJose</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Cannot trust either or shepwave. Weren't they the ones who put the big short on last Thursday?</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162068#comment-10162068" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">One is short, one is long... </a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/nowayjose" class="username">NoWayJose</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>It will slam down GDP. Watch. </p>
<p>Shit. It already has. And it will be some......time.</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Blankfein...Blankfein...Blankfein....   <em><strong> Crickets</strong></em></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Goldman is crap.  I see why the key analysts from Shepwave left them. I just read the shepwave report for Tuesday.  HOW IN THE HE LL DID THEY CALL FOR A SELL OFF ON TUESDAY, last week.  This is just too coincidental I am beginning to think they have some contacts somewhere. </p>
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      <span>Van G (not verified)</span>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Shepwave analysts never left. Just play their signals and stop being stupid.  Gold had been on a year since their buy call.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162118#comment-10162118" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Goldman is crap.  I see why</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/bammers" class="username">Bammers</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Awful lot of whining about GS here at ZH.  Yes, they are corrupt thieves.  But they are amazingly good thieves.   You guys tend to call them NY jews and wish them death and other misfortune.  I concur.  Giant Vampire Squid, as Taibi called GS.But, ask yourselves this.  Why are they so successful if they are inferior, nasty Jews?   Why dn't you good, god-fearing Christians gets together and beat them at their game?</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>  Scumbag banksters living off the misforgiving and usury of others.</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>They are all liars.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162139#comment-10162139" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">  Scumbag banksters living</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/yen-cross" class="username">Yen Cross</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Does this reveal JPM likes "Chaos Economics"?</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Expose the scum... pass it around... shut this bastard down once and for all:<a href="http://nypost.com/2017/08/28/pastor-osteen-shuts-church-amid-flooding-crisis/">http://nypost.com/2017/08/28/pastor-osteen-shuts-church-amid-flooding-c…</a></p>
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      Mon, 08/28/2017 - 22:39 <a href="/comment/10162159#comment-10162159" hreflang="en">Permalink</a>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Im not sure how everything will pan out. I do not know the overall health of businesses and families with respect to their abilities to ride the storm out. I hope that they are able to succeed. If people are without income, they may lose their homes and businesses. I hope that that does not happen. I also do not know the health of the insurance companies and whether or not they will be able to meet their obligations, or survive for much longer if they do. Naturally, any problems in the insurance industry, would spill over into the banking and financial industries. When it rains, it pours!</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Insurance cos? Haa haa. Flood insurance not covered.</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162159#comment-10162159" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Im not sure how everything</a> by <span>Rebelrebel7 (not verified)</span></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Not included in regular HO policies. Yiu need a rider or a separate policy</p>
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        <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/10162273#comment-10162273" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en">Insurance cos? Haa haa. Flood</a> by <a title="View user profile." href="/users/mk13" class="username">MK13</a></p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>I'll bet the Harbor Freight Tools (or Hazard Fraught as I like to call them) are doing everything they can to stay open in Houston.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see neighboring states stores start shipping generators and high volume gas water pumps into SE Texas.  </p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Optimistic Cop   Pessimistic CopSomething for everyone. </p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>I tend to believe GS on this. They are the ones who tell the government what numbers to publish.</p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>disasters decrease networth of the economy and boost GDPhigher GDP does not mean better wellbeing because wellbeing is measured by networth and not GDPgovernments perfer GDP as measure of the economy because most taxes are directly proportional to GDP</p>
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      Tue, 08/29/2017 - 05:20 <a href="/comment/10163086#comment-10163086" hreflang="en">Permalink</a>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Broken Window Fallacy anyone? Yes, hurricanes boost GDP the same way burning down your house will boost GDP even if you don't rebuild (gasoline to burn it, water to put out the fire, time cost of firefighters, new equipement for fire fighters, etc.).  Huge boost is you do rebuild.Here's a big question:  Should Texas receive Federal funds to help with disaster relief and rebuilding? </p>
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            <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Financial Fraud Vs. Mother Nature. I like it.</p>
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