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<title>	New Orleans 'still not off the hook' for Harvey rain, though forecast improved | 						NOLA.com</title>


	
	

	
	
	
	
																									
	

	
																									

	
		
	
	
	

	
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        <p>The forecasted path for what is now <a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/">Tropical Storm Harvey</a>&nbsp;shows the storm is likely to linger over Texas for several days before taking a course that takes it farther west than earlier&nbsp;projections showed. Forecasters say locals worried about Harvey's heavy rains reaching New Orleans can take some comfort in the shift, but should know we're not entirely in the clear.</p>
<p>"It's looking much better than it was, but we're still not off the hook," said Mike Shields, a forecaster with the National Weather Service's Slidell office.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/hurricane_harvey_live_updates_1.html#incart_std" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
<p>Shields said the chance for rain from Harvey reaching New Orleans will start to increase as early as Sunday, and jump further&nbsp;Monday and Tuesday. He said current forecasts show the area could see 2 to 3 inches of rain through the middle of next week, with the potential for pockets of heavier rainfall throughout southeast Louisiana.</p>
<p>With New Orleans' drainage pumping system still below full capacity, city officials and residents have been closely following rain projections from the storm.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Long-term forecast discussions predict the New Orleans area could now see 4 to 8 inches of rain total as a result of Harvey. That is a downward shift from the 5 to 10 inches forecast as recently as Friday.</p>
<p>"The threat has decreased somewhat and shifted further west, but there is still some threat," Shields said, emphasizing the forecast gets more uncertain the farther out you look.</p>
<p>A lot of the rainfall forecast depends on what the storm does in the coming days. Will Harvey continue to drift further northwest over Texas? Or will it get scooped&nbsp;up by&nbsp;an easterly jet stream that can pull&nbsp;Harvey's moisture and storm cells closer to our area?</p>
<p>What is clear is that the&nbsp;heaviest rainfall by far will be&nbsp;concentrated in southeast Texas, including the Houston area, where 15 to 30 inches of rain is forecast to fall over the next week. Some affected areas could see up to 40 inches.</p>
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<p>Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas coast twice Friday night as a fierce Category 4 storm, but <a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/harvey_downgrade_tropical_stor.html">slowed significantly and turned into a tropical storm</a>&nbsp;by early Saturday afternoon. It now appears Harvey will stay&nbsp;stalled over Texas, trapped between high pressure areas to the west and east of it.</p>
<p>Forecasters were quick to warn Texans not to disregard the downgraded storm. The National Hurricane Center said Harvey is likely to cause "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding" as it drenches southeast Texas over coming days.</p>
<p>Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said Saturday the state has sent two key emergency response personnel and search and rescue equipment to Texas to help with the response there.</p>
<p>While parts of southwest Louisiana remain at risk,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_hurricane_harvey.html">Edwards said he is "less concerned" about the risk of Harvey rains and potential flooding in New Orleans.</a></p>
<p>"The forecast as it relates specifically to New Orleans has improved and we don't see significant rainfall beyond what we would ordinarily expect at this time of year just from the afternoon thunderstorms," Edwards said.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_hurricane_harvey.html" data-enhanced="small"></a></p>
<p>Indeed, forecast models show New Orleans is likely to escape heavy rainfall over the next several days. The majority of the 21 models tracked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict rainfall between 1.4 inches and 3.4 inches through next Thursday.</p>
<p>However, variances start to emerge when the models are extended through next Saturday, with as much as 7.8 inches of rain predicted on the high end and as little as 2.64 inches on the low end.</p>
<p>Jeff Weber, a meteorologist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the latest models indicate New Orleans can at least expect increased rain Wednesday or Thursday of the upcoming week, though it's still early to pinpoint exactly how much of a bump in rainfall the area will see.</p>
<p>Considering Friday's forecasts, the recent adjustments are shaping up to be a "much better situation" for the New Orleans area, Weber said.</p>
<p>But Harvey has evolved into a slow, lumbering storm that does not appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.&nbsp;He noted it only takes one strong isolated storm to prompt localized flash flooding.</p>
<p>Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast could continue to feel the effects of the moisture brewed by Harvey well into early September, he said.&nbsp;</p>
<p>"It's a marathon," Weber said. "It's a long event."</p>
        
        
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