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                    Hurricane Harvey
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<p><span style="font-size: 13px;"><img src="https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=100&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png" alt="Manus_Clancy-1.png" width="100" style="width: 100px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; float: left;" srcset="https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=50&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 50w, https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=100&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 100w, https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=150&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 150w, https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=200&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 200w, https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=250&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 250w, https://info.trepp.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Manus_Clancy-1.png?t=1518814953727&amp;width=300&amp;name=Manus_Clancy-1.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 100px) 100vw, 100px"></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">The scope of Hurricane Harvey in Houston and the surrounding areas has been changing hourly as the storm has further afflicted Southeastern Texas, as well as parts of Louisiana. The areas that are considered disaster zones have been changing and we want to stay current with the latest information.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 13px; color: #000000;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><!--more--></span></span></p>
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<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">That’s why we’ve pulled a new list of affected loans based on additional criteria, so you can examine the most heavily impacted areas in addition to our broad list we published last week.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">There are now two views of Harvey exposure. The first uses the disaster areas outlined by the office of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. This includes 54 counties and goes as far west as San Antonio. For those that want a broader view, that is your list. We have made a few tweaks to this list since we first published it. First, we removed all multiproperty loans <strong><u>unless</u></strong> all of the collateral properties are located in Texas. We then added to the number of counties listed by the Governor. Also, we included some Ginnie Mae loans which were neglected during our initial search.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">FEMA has a separate, narrower list of 33 counties where both public and individual assistance is being requested. We then incorporated that list into our second subset. For those that want a more clinical view of where the highest level of concern is, this is the list for you.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #000000;">If you're a Trepp client, these lists can be found on our website’s In the Spotlight section under</span> <strong><a href="https://apps.trepp.com/treppwire.cgi?whichTrepp=w#treppWire=Spotlight&amp;dt0=50,1,City,,,d,a,a,0" target="_blank"><strong>Harvey Storm (Broad Exposure)</strong></a></strong>&nbsp;<span style="color: #000000;">and</span> <strong><a href="https://apps.trepp.com/treppwire.cgi?whichTrepp=w#treppWire=Spotlight&amp;dt0=50,1,Loan+Balance+Current,,,,,,0" target="_blank"><strong>Harvey Storm (FEMA Exposure)</strong></a></strong><span style="color: #000000;">. If you’re not a client but would like more information about these lists,</span> <a href="//info.trepp.com/trepp-free-hurricane-harvey" target="_blank"><strong>sign up for a free trial</strong></a><span style="color: #000000;">.</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">We want to give you a breakdown of what we’ve seen within each of our exposure lists, so here are some high-level stats.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;"><strong>Broader Set of Harvey Exposure</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">For the broader subset, the total balance is now $33.8 billion across 4,353 loans after making the changes we mentioned above. Some findings from this list:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Almost 1,100 loans – with a combined $12.9 billion in outstanding balance - come from government agency deals. These FN/FHMLC loans will not pose a credit risk for anyone other than holders of Freddie K credit paper. There could be a potential for heightened prepayment risk if these properties were to be condemned, or if the accompanying loans were paid off with insurance proceeds.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">For loans where the property subtype is available, it appears that the majority of GSE properties are low-rise/garden apartments, which would make them more likely to incur flood damage than high-rise properties.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">For the non-GSE portion of this list, here are some key stats we’ve pulled from the data:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">There are between 1,100 and 1,200 loans in this segment with a total balance of $15.1 billion.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Only 40 loans (about $300 million in combined outstanding balance) are currently delinquent. That figure amounts to about 2.2% of the entire non-GSE universe.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Retail properties make up the largest chunk of exposure by major property type with just under $5 billion (or 32.9% of the total). That is followed by multifamily (25.6%) and office properties (20.6%).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Of those retail loans, there are 48 notes with a combined balance of about $210 million for which the largest tenant makes up more than 25% of the collateral space AND has a lease that ends within the next 24 months. A tenant with a lease expiring in the near term may not find it worthwhile to stick it out for a property that has suffered severe damage.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">When looking at the office portion of this data set, there are 33 loans with a balance of about $700 million for which the largest tenant makes up more than 25% of the space AND has a lease that ends within the next24 months. These loans were a concern before Hurricane Harvey, and will come under even more scrutiny now. The large offices that are leased to energy firms looking to downsize (or who have already downsized) pose the biggest questions.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Of the $3.9 billion in private-label, multifamily CMBS loans from this subset, 84% are backed by garden /low-rise apartments.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;"><strong>‘FEMA’ Set of Harvey Exposure</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">For the narrower subset (derived from FEMA’s list) the balance of exposure is $23.6 billion across 2,414 loans.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Some findings from this list:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">About 1500 loans - $11.4 billion in total outstanding balance - come from government agency deals. These FN/FHMLC loans should only pose a credit risk to holders of Freddie K credit paper.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">There are between 800 and 900 non-GSE loans in this subset with a total outstanding balance of $12.2 billion.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Only 27 loans totaling about $220 million are currently delinquent, which amounts to roughly 1.8% of the total non-GSE universe.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #000000;">Retail properties feature the most exposure (30.1% of the total), followed by the multifamily (26.2%) and office sectors (23.1%).</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;"><em><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 11px;">The information provided is based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable.</span></em></span></p></span>
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