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    <article class="uk-article tm-article-blog" data-permalink="https://climatechangedispatch.com/heres-the-inconvenient-truth-behind-mits-study-linking-hurricane-harvey-to-global-warming/">

        
        
        
        
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                Written by <a href="https://climatechangedispatch.com/author/ccdeditor/" title="Michael Bastasch">Michael Bastasch</a> on <time datetime="2017-11-14">November 14, 2017</time>. Posted in <a href="https://climatechangedispatch.com/category/latest-news/" rel="category tag">Latest news</a>            </p>

            <h1 class="tm-article-title uk-article-title uk-text-center">Here’s The Inconvenient Truth Behind MIT’s Study Linking Hurricane Harvey To Global Warming</h1>

            
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                <p><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-14109" src="https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/harvey-aerial.jpg?resize=350%2C262&#038;ssl=1" alt="Photo: Texas Military Dept‏" width="350" height="262" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/harvey-aerial.jpg?resize=350%2C262&amp;ssl=1 350w, https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/harvey-aerial.jpg?resize=500%2C374&amp;ssl=1 500w, https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/harvey-aerial.jpg?w=983&amp;ssl=1 983w" sizes="(max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px" data-recalc-dims="1" />A new study is making waves in the media, claiming to finally address the question of man-made global warming’s role in Hurricane Harvey’s record-setting rainfall.</p>
<p>Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor Kerry Emanuel, a renowned hurricane expert, and his colleagues <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/11/07/1716222114.full">published their findings</a> on Monday, claiming global warming increased the of risk Hurricane Harvey-level rainfall in southeastern Texas grew since the last century.</p>
<p>There’s one huge caveat: Emanuel didn’t actually study Hurricane Harvey itself.<br />
<span id="more-16072"></span></p>
<p>Instead, Emanuel’s study is based on thousands of climate model runs to find out the odds a storm will bring the amount of rainfall Hurricane Harvey did when it made landfall in late August 2017.</p>
<p>Emanuel told The Daily Caller News Foundation his study didn’t analyze any of the particulars that made Hurricane Harvey so devastating. “Yes indeed … that is the case,” Emanuel told TheDCNF.</p>
<p>Instead, this study models the statistical likelihood of Harvey-level rainfall based on a linear projection of how storms could change under a scenario with massive amounts of global warming.</p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-harvey-broke-so-many-rainfall-records-even-the-state-climatologist-called-it-ridiculous/">broke Texas rainfall records</a> when it hit, dumping large amounts of rain over the greater Houston area for about five days. Cedar Bayou, outside Houston, saw nearly 52 inches of rainfall, breaking an all-time U.S. record.</p>
<p>Emanuel concluded there’s “a sixfold increase” in the odds of Harvey-level rainfall pummeling Houston in any given year. Emanuel estimated an 18 percent chance of Harvey-level rainfall by the end of the 21st Century.</p>
<p>At one point, Emanuel noted, “Harvey’s rainfall in Houston was ‘biblical’ in the sense that it likely occurred around once since the Old Testament was written.”</p>
<p>But special circumstances were at play for Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>Harvey’s rainfall was only able to break records because it stalled over Texas, <a href="https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Why-Hurricane-Harvey-Stalled-for-Days-Over-Texas_Dallas-Fort-Worth-442189023.html">blocked by a high-pressure ridge</a> in the west. The high-pressure ridge kept Harvey over Texas longer than it otherwise would have, concentrating rainfall over a smaller area.</p>
<p>“There is no question that the extraordinary magnitude of Harvey’s rain was mostly because it stalled,” Emanuel told TheDCNF.</p>
<p>Media coverage of the study glossed over this inconvenience, with The Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/11/13/climate-change-upped-the-odds-of-harveys-extreme-rains-study-finds/?tid=ss_tw&amp;utm_term=.f6c1d00bddd0">reporting</a> that “Climate change upped the odds of Hurricane Harvey’s extreme rains, study finds.”</p>
<p>The Atlantic <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/global-warming-really-did-make-hurricane-harvey-more-likely/545765/">ran</a> with the ridiculous headline: “Global Warming Really Did Make Hurricane Harvey More Likely.” Apparently, the writer didn’t read the study itself.</p>
<p>Some climate scientists were quick to blame global warming for Hurricane Harvey’s devastation. Climate scientist Michael Mann <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/28/climate-scientist-says-global-warming-worsened-hurricane-harvey-did-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the warmer-than-normal temperature in the Gulf of Mexico gave Harvey more power and allowed it to hold more moisture, but other scientists were quick to shut him down.</p>
<p>So far, scientists have found little to no evidence global warming is having an impact on hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/04/noaa-study-admits-its-premature-to-link-global-warming-and-hurricanes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> in March 2017 that it’s “premature to conclude that human activities — and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming — have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.”</p>
<p>Emanuel was one of the scientists who <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/19/why-its-time-to-stop-calling-these-hurricane-disasters-natural/?utm_term=.efd91b02b433" target="_blank" rel="noopener">came out</a> linking Harvey’s devastation to global warming. Now, he’s published a study on this.</p>
<p>Studies like this usually take time to get published, but Emanuel “decided to use his status as a member of the National Academies of Science, which let him pick his own peer reviewers, who were likely to be friendly and get the review done quickly,” Ars Technica <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/11/harvey-scale-rains-could-hit-texas-18x-more-often-by-the-end-of-the-century/">reported</a>.</p>
<p>That means the “findings probably haven’t faced as rigorous a review as they might have,” Ars Technica reported, but it does show Emanuel is confident in his hurricane modeling, which has already been peer-reviewed. Emanuel’s study was funded, in part, by the National Science Foundation.</p>
<p>Emanuel said he and his colleagues were looking into the atmospheric factors that could be increasing the likelihood of Hurricane Harvey-like events.</p>
<p>“Early results indicate that some of it comes from increased moisture in a warmer atmosphere but some also arise from the increased probability of storms stalling because of weak atmospheric flow. Hope to have some concrete results before long,” he said.</p>
<p><strong>Read more at <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/14/heres-the-inconvenient-truth-behind-mits-study-linking-hurricane-harvey-to-global-warming/">Daily Caller</a></strong></p>
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                                    <time datetime="2017-11-14">November 14, 2017 at 3:39 pm</time>
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                                <p>and our  tax  money  i being   used  to  pay   for   this  junk  science and  bunch of  scam  artists publishing   this poppycock</p>

                                
                                
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