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            Published 5:38 p.m. MT Aug. 29, 2017 | <span class="asset-metabar-time-updated">Updated 4:35 p.m. MT Aug. 30, 2017</span></span></div></section><section id="module-position-Qp8J_mRMhwI" class="storytopbar-bucket piano-module story-piano-module"></section><section id="module-position-Qp8J_mRnL4w" class="storytopbar-bucket bounce-exchange-module story-bounce-exchange-module"></section><section id="module-position-Qp8J_mQNnyk" class="storytopbar-bucket google-survey-module story-google-survey-module"></section><!-- p402_premium class is utilized by Google Consumer Surveys --><div class="asset-double-wide double-wide p402_premium" role="main" itemprop="articleBody"><div id="module-position-Qp8J_5-2oIQ" class="story-asset video-asset"><div class="ui-video-wrapper " itemprop="video" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/VideoObject" ><div class="js-video-placeholder video-placeholder smallarticleattophtml5"></div><div class="js-ui-video-init ui-pluto-video js-video-aps js-uw-iframe-video uw-iframe-video story-video inline-story-video priority smallarticleattophtml5"
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         data-uotrack="InlineShareMoreBtn"><span class="inline-share-count inline-share-count-more"></span><span class="inline-share-btn-label inline-share-btn-label-more">MORE</span></span></div></div><p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">The last time a hurricane hit Colorado was — well, never.</p><p class="speakable-p-2 p-text">So it might come as a surprise to some that a CSU team produces the longest-running seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast, which is in its 34th year.</p><p class="p-text">We called the team’s lead forecaster and research scientist, Phil Klotzbach, on Tuesday to talk about current Tropical Storm Harvey and how Colorado State University came to be home to the now-renowned CSU Tropical Meteorology Project.</p><p class="p-text"><strong>Question:</strong> Let’s talk Harvey. Meteorologists have been calling the storm “unprecedented” in many ways. What about it is so unprecedented?</p><p class="p-text"><strong>Answer:</strong> “It made landfall and it just didn’t move,” Klotzbach said. “The last three days, its average speed was 3 miles an hour. That’s crazy slow for a hurricane. So it’s very slow moving, and it’s close enough to the coast that it’s tapping into that warm gulf moisture and dumping it on Houston” and surrounding areas.</p><p class="p-text">According to preliminary data from the National Weather Service on Tuesday afternoon, the storm has broken the previous record for rainfall from a tropical cyclone in the continental U.S. — 48 inches from Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978.</p><p class="p-text"><span class="exclude-from-newsgate"><strong style="margin-right:3px;">More: </strong><a href="/story/news/2017/08/29/how-help-hurricane-harvey-victims/613378001/">Northern Colorado: How you can help Hurricane Harvey victims</a></span></p><p class="p-text">“It’s just a mind-boggling amount of rain in a major metropolitan area. The amount of damage that this storm is going to cause is probably pushing levels that we’ve seen from (big storms) in the past like Katrina and Sandy … and it’s still raining. It’s probably gonna keep raining for a day, at least. Unfortunately, it’s probably going to get worse before it gets better.</p><div class="partner-placement partner-spike"></div><p class="p-text">“When you see the weather service guys talking about unprecedented this and unprecedented that — those guys aren’t usually given to hyperbole. It’s not like Bill Walton commenting on NBA games where he says, 'That’s the greatest play I’ve ever seen' three times a day. It’s bad. It’s really bad.”</p><p class="p-text"><strong>Q: </strong>Do you think climate change was a contributing factor in this storm?</p><p class="p-text"><strong>A:</strong> It’s hard to say at this point, Klotzbach said.</p><p class="p-text">“As for the strength of the storm, a Category 4 hitting Texas isn’t (unheard of). This is the first one to hit Texas since 1961, but if you look prior to that, there were a lot more Category 4 and Category 5 than now. So it’s nothing out of the realm of normalcy as far as strength.</p><div class="partner-outstream"></div><p class="p-text">“Based on cursory analysis, if you look at the average speed of storms in the Gulf of Mexico in the last 100 years, there’s no real trend. You’d have to look and see what’s the trend of this particular (storm) pattern. I haven’t seen anyone saying that yet, but I’m sure people will be running numbers to find out."</p><p class="p-text"><span class="exclude-from-newsgate"><strong style="margin-right:3px;">More: </strong><a href="/story/news/2017/08/28/police-sheriff-adjust-training-assaults-officers-rise-colorado/573490001/">Police, sheriff adjust training as assaults on officers rise in Colorado</a></span></p><p class="p-text">But human impact is a factor in the storm, Klotzbach said.</p><p class="p-text">“Harris County, Texas, was the fastest-growing county in the country for (eight) years running. You have a lot more concrete where you used to have grass and plants and shrubs” — and urbanized areas respond differently to flooding than plant life. “…But people’ve gotta live somewhere. You can’t just tell people not to build a house somewhere. It’s tough. “</p><div id="module-position-Qp8J_5_BFyI" class="story-asset image-asset"><aside itemprop="associatedMedia" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" class="wide single-photo"><img itemprop="url" src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a2e2d65c7e0f1816ac5a13b407a5046ba485b4b9/c=58-0-966-683&amp;r=x408&amp;c=540x405/local/-/media/2015/06/04/FortCollins/FortCollins/635690403029146346-06042015-FEATURED-PHOTO2-HURRICANES.jpg" alt="Dr. Philip Klotzbach, Research Scientist at Colorado" width="540" height="405" data-mycapture-src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/media/2015/06/04/FortCollins/FortCollins/635690403029146346-06042015-FEATURED-PHOTO2-HURRICANES.jpg"
                    data-mycapture-sm-src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/4044b1e7645488621f157de466cf1a990870caa2/r=500x333/local/-/media/2015/06/04/FortCollins/FortCollins/635690403029146346-06042015-FEATURED-PHOTO2-HURRICANES.jpg" /><meta itemprop="name" content="Hurricane Forecasters at Colorado State University" /><meta itemprop="height" content="405" /><meta itemprop="width" content="540" /><p>Dr. Philip Klotzbach, Research Scientist at Colorado State University, and Dr. Bill Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science. May 9, 2014<meta itemprop="copyrightHolder" content="John Eisele/Colorado State Unive, John Eisele/CSU Photography" />&nbsp;<span class="credit">(Photo: John Eisele/Colorado State Unive, John Eisele/CSU Photography)</span></p></aside><div class="clearfix"></div></div><p class="p-text"><strong>Q:</strong> How did Colorado State University end up with such a robust hurricane forecasting program?</p><p class="p-text"><strong>A:</strong> Largely because of the legacy left by the late William Gray and Herbert <span style="background:white">Riehl.</span></p><p class="p-text">“Dr. Gray, if he were alive, would tell you it’s because a storm surge can’t hit you at 5,000 feet — that’s why we do the forecasts in Colorado."</p><p class="p-text">Riehl, “who started the atmospheric science department back in early 1960s, was a big tropical cyclone guy. He was at the University of Chicago, which is still nowhere near hurricanes. Dr. Gray worked under Herbert Riehl in Chicago, so Herbert Riehl offered him a position and Dr. Gray came out here. Gray started seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1984, but he’d been in the department for 20 years prior to that. He did a lot of other meaningful work with hurricanes other than seasonal forecasts, although that’s what he might be best known for in the general public.”</p><p class="p-text">Klotzbach, who’s worked at the CSU department since 2000, has co-authored the forecasts along with associate professor of atmospheric sciences Michael Bell since Gray’s death in 2016.</p><p class="p-text">“We’re trying to keep that portion of Dr. Gray’s legacy alive and well, hopefully for another 50 years.”</p><p class="p-text"><a href="http://theconversation.com/scientists-at-work-forecasting-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-77232">The team’s seasonal forecast</a> couldn’t have predicted the destruction of Hurricane Harvey because it doesn’t focus on where or when specific storms will happen. Instead, the forecast focuses on overall activity for the hurricane season. According to the team’s latest forecast, this season will be more active than usual because of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions and a warmer-than-usual tropical Atlantic.</p><p class="p-text"><strong>Q: </strong>Why are seasonal hurricane forecasts important?</p><p class="p-text"><strong>A:</strong> “There’s an inherent curiosity. It’s the same reason people like to know who’s going to win the World Series in March. People want to know how active the season’s going to be. Obviously, the fact that it’s year 34 and people are still paying attention means we have some skill with it, but it’s not perfect.</p><p class="p-text">“We couldn’t say on June 1 that Harvey was going to come up and hit Texas at the end of August, but we could say that conditions are more conducive than normal to an active season. People need to be prepared the same every year. You could have a very devastating hurricane in a quiet season.</p><p class="p-text">"All it takes is that one storm to make it a very active season for you.”</p><p class="p-text"><span class="exclude-from-newsgate"><strong style="margin-right:3px;">Science: </strong><a href="/story/news/2017/08/04/fort-collins-scientists-struggle-air-view-climate-change/533181001/">Fort Collins scientists struggle to air alternative view on climate change</a></span></p><p class="p-text"> </p><div id="module-position-Qp8J_6BfNKA" class="story-asset inline-share-tools-asset"><div class="inline-share-tools asset-inline-share-tools asset-inline-share-tools-bottom"><span
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