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    <title>U.S. Economy Grew 3% in 2nd Quarter, Fastest Pace in 2 Years - The New York Times</title>
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                        			<h1 itemprop="headline" id="headline" class="headline">U.S. Economy Grew 3% in 2nd Quarter, Fastest Pace in 2 Years</h1>
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<p class="byline-dateline"><span class="byline" itemprop="author creator" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"  itemid="https://www.nytimes.com/by/nelson-d-schwartz">By <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/nelson-d-schwartz" title="More Articles by NELSON D. SCHWARTZ"><span class="byline-author" data-byline-name="NELSON D. SCHWARTZ" itemprop="name" data-twitter-handle="NelsonSchwartz">NELSON D. SCHWARTZ</span></a></span><time class="dateline" datetime="2017-11-17T10:56:50-05:00" itemprop="dateModified" content="2017-11-17T10:56:50-05:00">AUG. 30, 2017</time>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="123" data-total-count="123">The current recovery has entered its ninth year — long by economic standards — but it is showing some unexpected vigor.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="257" data-total-count="380">The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that the economy had expanded at an annual rate of 3 percent in the second quarter of the year, better than initially estimated, and a substantial acceleration over the first quarter’s lackluster <a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/gdp2q17_adv.htm">1.2 percent pace</a>.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="147" data-total-count="527">The revised figure is still well below President Trump’s goal of 4 percent growth, but it is the economy’s best quarterly showing <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth">in two years</a>.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="248" data-total-count="775">Mr. Trump talked up the latest figures in a speech on Wednesday in Springfield, Mo., laying out his plans for tax overhaul. Despite nearly uniform skepticism from mainstream economists, he insisted that much faster economic growth was within reach.</p><div id="story-ad-1" class="story-ad ad ad-placeholder nocontent robots-nocontent ">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="137" data-total-count="912" id="story-continues-1">“I happen to be one who thinks we can go much higher than 3 percent,” the president said. “There is no reason why we should not.”</p>        <a class="visually-hidden skip-to-text-link" href="#story-continues-2">Continue reading the main story</a>
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        <p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="270" data-total-count="1182" id="story-continues-3">There are several reasons that his goal is probably far-fetched, namely the country’s aging work force and slower population growth than in the past. Combine that with low productivity growth, and hitting Mr. Trump’s target begins to look like a Sisyphean challenge.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="222" data-total-count="1404">The president also suggested that other economies overseas were growing at two or three times the American rate. “You look at other countries and what their G.D.P. is, they are unhappy when it is 7, 8, and 9,” he said.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="155" data-total-count="1559">No major Western economy is <a href="http://www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm">growing close to that</a> rate — and <a href="http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/statistical-annex-oecd-economic-outlook-june-2017.pdf">none has in years</a>. The fastest-growing large economy, China’s, grew <a href="https://qz.com/890084/chinas-official-2016-gdp-growth-was-6-7-and-the-government-promises-its-authentic/">6.7 percent </a>last year.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="155" data-total-count="1714">Still, with personal consumption accounting for nearly 70 percent of economic output, the new willingness of shoppers to open their wallets is a good sign.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="158" data-total-count="1872">“The economy is stronger than you think,” said Chris Rupkey, the chief financial economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group in New York. “Bet on it.”</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="293" data-total-count="2165">The improvement was driven in large part by strong consumer activity, with purchases of durable goods like automobiles and appliances rising strongly. Increased business spending also helped lift the latest estimate above Commerce Department’s initial reading of 2.6 percent for the quarter.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="256" data-total-count="2421">The surge in consumer spending stands in stark contrast with the problems plaguing brick-and-mortar stores like Sears and Macy’s, which have been forced to close dozens of locations this year amid fierce competition from online retailers like Amazon.com.</p><div id="story-ad-2" class="story-ad ad ad-placeholder nocontent robots-nocontent ">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="218" data-total-count="2639" id="story-continues-4">The government’s data reflects all purchases, whatever the retail channel, which explains why malls and street-level stores may be suffering even as consumers become more bullish and the broader economy powers ahead.</p><figure id="econ-0831" class="interactive interactive-embedded  limit-small layout-small">
    
    
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            Real Economic Growth        </h2>
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				font-size:12px;
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			#g-0831-WEB-biz-ECON-_RealEconGrowth_-Artboard_1 .g-aiPstyle1 {
				font-size:12px;
				line-height:13px;
				font-weight:700;
				color:#333333;
			}
			#g-0831-WEB-biz-ECON-_RealEconGrowth_-Artboard_1 .g-aiPstyle2 {
				font-size:12px;
				line-height:13px;
				font-weight:500;
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				class='g-aiImg'
				src='https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/08/30/econ/260181bb5d35ded0e454cefbb96c2e4f11f47118/0831-WEB-biz-ECON-_RealEconGrowth_-Artboard_1.png'
				/>
			<div id='g-ai0-1' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:3.0309%;right:13.0957%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle0'>To</p>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle0'>From</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-2' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:3.0309%;left:0%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle1'>2nd quarter revised</p>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle2'>Change at annual rate              </p>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle2'>      </p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-3' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:3.4638%;left:88.7087%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle1'>+3.0%</p>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle2'>+2.6</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-4' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:17.7522%;right:95.0602%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>+6</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-5' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:17.7522%;right:91.0106%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>%</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-6' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:32.4735%;right:95.0602%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>+4</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-7' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:47.6278%;right:94.9456%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>+2</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-8' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:63.2151%;right:95.4255%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>0</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-9' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:78.8024%;right:95.0601%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle3'>&ndash;2</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-10' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:88.7609%;right:87.249%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle4'>&rsquo;13</p>
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			<div id='g-ai0-11' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:88.7609%;right:70.6937%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle4'>&rsquo;14</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-12' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:88.7609%;right:49.1403%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle4'>&rsquo;15</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-13' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:88.7609%;right:27.6846%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle4'>&rsquo;16</p>
			</div>
			<div id='g-ai0-14' class='g-Chart g-aiAbs' style='top:88.7609%;right:6.484%;'>
				<p class='g-aiPstyle4'>&rsquo;17</p>
			</div>
		</div>
	</div>


	
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<p class="byline-dateline"><time class="dateline" datetime="2017-11-17T10:56:48-05:00" itemprop="dateModified" content="2017-11-17T10:56:48-05:00">AUG. 30, 2017</time>
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="255" data-total-count="2894">Most economists are expecting the economy to expand at a rate of roughly 3 percent in the second half of 2017. That pace should be strong enough to keep job growth and wages on track for further gains, while keeping the threat of inflation modest for now.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="252" data-total-count="3146">Besides wild cards like Hurricane Harvey’s impact on a broad swath of the Gulf Coast, and political uncertainty about issues like tax overhaul and a possible increase in infrastructure spending, traders are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="268" data-total-count="3414">Most experts believe the central bank will raise interest rates just once more this year, but a faster economy or an increase in wages or inflation could prompt policy makers to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy and shrink the Fed’s balance sheet in 2018.</p><div class="newsletter-signup hidden auto-newsletter variant-1-hidden " id="newsletter-promo" data-newsletter-productCode="" data-newsletter-productTitle="" aria-labeledby="newsletter-promo-heading">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="406" data-total-count="3820">Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, and other policy makers will also be closely watching data expected on Friday morning from the Labor Department on hiring, wages and unemployment in August. Economists estimate that the economy added 180,000 jobs, but a stronger gain, like July’s 209,000 jump, or an uptick in wages, would focus more investor attention on the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 19 and 20.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="196" data-total-count="4016">At a speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Ms. Yellen focused mostly on the continuing need for regulation, rather than the outlook for growth, but she did term the current economy “<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170825a.htm">strong</a>.”</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="226" data-total-count="4242">On Wednesday, some economists offered improved expectations for job creation in August after the payroll processor ADP reported that private employers <a href="https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/">added 237,000 jobs</a>, well above the 185,000 increase that had been expected.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="282" data-total-count="4524">The acceleration in spending suggests that a so-called Trump bump — improved sentiment among consumers and more optimism among business leaders — may be translating into concrete actions like homeowners buying new appliances and companies investing in new software or equipment.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="269" data-total-count="4793">“The consumer is in the driver’s seat in terms of economic growth,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco. “It puts us on a stronger path going into the third quarter, although Hurricane Harvey introduces some uncertainty.”</p><div id="story-ad-3" class="story-ad ad ad-placeholder nocontent robots-nocontent ">
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<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="286" data-total-count="5079" id="story-continues-5">Mr. Anderson expects growth in the range of 3 to 3.5 percent in the current quarter, but he said the hurricane could shave as much as 0.3 percentage points off that figure. A hit like that would mostly be reversed in the year’s final quarter as rebuilding efforts kicked in, he added.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="386" data-total-count="5465">It will take more than one quarter’s data for the White House or congressional Republicans to be able to claim credit for lifting the economy’s growth trajectory. Under President Barack Obama in 2013 and 2014, quarterly growth occasionally exceeded 3 percent. But, in contrast to what happened during recoveries in the 1990s and mid-2000s, annual growth never passed that threshold.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="184" data-total-count="5649">If the economy were to sustain the current pace of expansion, it would be a significant uptick from the 2 percent annual growth rate that has mostly prevailed since the recovery began.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="282" data-total-count="5931">A difference of a single percentage point may not sound like much, but the stakes are huge in a $19 trillion economy. The acceleration could also help lift wage growth, which has been frustratingly slow for years despite steady hiring, a surging stock market and rising home prices.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="234" data-total-count="6165">Private-sector estimates of third-quarter growth have also inched higher lately. Macroeconomic Advisers now forecasts a 3.4 percent expansion rate for the current quarter, up from the 2.9 percent figure it forecast earlier this month.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="238" data-total-count="6403">Increases in consumer spending and business investment powered nearly all of the revision issued on Wednesday. Factors like net exports and residential investment barely changed, while government spending added only 0.1 percentage points.</p><p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="175" data-total-count="6578">The Commerce Department offers three estimates of growth as more data becomes available, with the final figure for second-quarter economic activity to be released on Sept. 28.</p><footer class="story-footer story-content">
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