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data-audio="{&#x22;podcastName&#x22;:&#x22;MoneyBeat&#x22;,&#x22;column&#x22;:&#x22;MoneyBeat&#x22;,&#x22;description&#x22;:&#x22;RSM&#x27;s Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas breaks down the financial aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, from its immediate impact on legislation and government to the long term effect on the economy overall.   &#x22;,&#x22;formattedCreationDate&#x22;:&#x22;8/30/2017 11:48AM&#x22;,&#x22;formattedDuration&#x22;:&#x22;23:30&#x22;,&#x22;guid&#x22;:&#x22;5FFECC05-35A4-4CE2-8DC5-9885D9053E50&#x22;,&#x22;iso8601CreationDate&#x22;:&#x22;2017-08-30T16:48:41Z&#x22;,&#x22;iso8601Duration&#x22;:&#x22;PT23M30S&#x22;,&#x22;keywords&#x22;:[],&#x22;relatedLinkText&#x22;:&#x22;&#x22;,&#x22;relatedLinkHref&#x22;:&#x22;&#x22;,&#x22;linkRelativeURL&#x22;:&#x22;/podcasts/hurricane-harvey-the-financial-aftermath/5FFECC05-35A4-4CE2-8DC5-9885D9053E50.html&#x22;,&#x22;linkShortURL&#x22;:&#x22;http://on.wsj.com/2vEU1Fr&#x22;,&#x22;linkURL&#x22;:&#x22;http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/hurricane-harvey-the-financial-aftermath/5FFECC05-35A4-4CE2-8DC5-9885D9053E50.html&#x22;,&#x22;name&#x22;:&#x22;Hurricane Harvey: The Financial Aftermath &#x22;,&#x22;thumbnailURL&#x22;:&#x22;https://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_167x94.jpg&#x22;,&#x22;thumbnail640x360URL&#x22;:&#x22;https://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_640x360.jpg&#x22;,&#x22;thumbnail1280x720URL&#x22;:&#x22;https://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_640x360.jpg&#x22;,&#x22;tickers&#x22;:null,&#x22;transcript&#x22;:&#x22;... there ... is money The ... Wall Street Journal ... now my ... duty as the New York ... euro Paul vignette and Stephen Dresser Lou Reed but he will come to the MoneyBeat podcast Hall and Steve here in the studio in your city ... I&#x27;m joined today by Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Eisen who everybody of pot cancers will podcast is no well then how are you ... get you um and also joining us in the studio too said Bruce Willis is chief economist at our as them up ... and you bet on ... it I&#x27;m not allowed to those who will come back when and what they do ... and will look forward and talk about today is Hurricane Harvey and obviously ... the human toll the catastrophe all those things are are paramount importance in Houston Texas are still dealing with this in and ... we feel very sympathetic course was going on down there ... but we also we have to talk about the economic fallout what it is going to mean from that perspective ... so that is ... that we do here were business ... worthy of publication business ... focus vocation that sort of hot weather as we wanted to bring in Joe taken to the EU started ... crunching the numbers and I mean obviously we don&#x27;t know what the final impact of the storm is going to know it&#x27;s awful well we don&#x27;t exactly compete ... for were starting to get an EP of love with the economic damage ... yet he does a good starting point is it&#x27;s going to be worse than will fit ... our initial estimates are ... for every week Confucian shut down in the greater Houston Metroplex along the Gulf Coast and Louisiana ... the uninitiated about one tenth of a percent of GDP activity ... in the current national GDP national di Pisa right now I&#x27;ve got to Perth ... to transfer percent ... penciled in ... now some of what&#x27;s coming out of the official sector produce troop parts of eastern Indian water for a month there&#x27;s the Proms clearing the shipping channel ... well that&#x27;s good that&#x27;s going to change ... right ... ALM so right now that twenty four billion economic losses for greater than twenty four billion ... another forty six million the structural damages ... so what we&#x27;re going to get is a situation that still require ... the preteen coaching policy response ... out of the U S Congress ... which by the way only has twelve calendar days ... on the docket before actually we were not among the ... so within there&#x27;s gonna be some heavy lifting that goes on ... starting ... September fit them things are getting hit very contentious ... as we all know here in the north the ... Hurricane Sandy right it took those guys sixty five days to get to it ... while Congress to do a bill that trend I don&#x27;t think we&#x27;re going to see me being different from that here are the organist you want to extenders ... into ... a curve resolutions ... just to keep things going until they can get their ducks in a row ... they ordered two ... of the hurricane relief and then all of the other things that they&#x27;re going have to do ... um to the Rainier the year before they get to the bottom ... while ... and then we can answer some of the ripple effects throughout the economy handing it to Houston and Corpus Christi ports which ... he noted the other day that they they they handle a lot of the week ... I&#x27;m not twenty five percent a week and I knew and then of course you got that that energy is what energy production shutting down I mean ... Hattie think about it ... um ... you know how this will ripple to be on the Gulf Coast ... ok will couple things first it with this is the issue the starting ... of talking points ... up one hill ... potential chemical couple of the United States is effectively shut up ... and ... cry ... it has them this morning ... twenty three percent ... of all oil refining capacity shutdown ... that&#x27;s exactly the same amount that was shut down ... um caused by Hurricane Katrina and Rita combined ... of course you know the size of the of the sector somewhat different ... so actually it in real terms a lot bigger focus ... that&#x27;s because gasoline prices to go up ... in Texas alone there to see twenty to thirty percent ... um increases as soon as they can get their cars back moving you start going to work ... heroes are pretty and simple right now on on a national bases importantly ... here or you know were sitting here in Midtown Manhattan I live just a few blocks away ... most of the ghastly me get in the Northeast Washington to Boston ... comes ... from Houston ... Morgan is seeing ... a sharp increase in gasoline prices starting ... over the much traveled ... Labor Day holiday week ... so you&#x27;re going to see that had nothing to see that ... for our east to see gasoline prices go up in Europe ... in Latin America because we&#x27;re going to have to import gasoline ... to make up for shortages ... over the next month or two before things are really back to normal ... thank God for free trade agreement ... so we are the best I can talk about how ... you have this is going to also impact ... the shale industry employment there I mean how is this coming pop up ads with the economic data there when I start seeing one rolling out over the next month or so ... okay so you&#x27;re going to start seen in total vehicle sales on Friday afternoon ... will be a very late impact ... but over the next two months it will be having ... them in the law reversed during falling to strike ... when you when you say you mean you get a ... pop up in vehicles on Sunday in a given notice to the negative impacts just because that that part of the yes yes ... I can and will see more of a negative impact during October ... sales in the November December you can see a big ... pickup ... to be blunt this is one of these things is really difficult to talk about ... them ... our office in Houston shutdown we have ... very ... dear employees and in this place ... the Saudis say this with a happy heart ... this is going to help the U S auto industry because they&#x27;ve got a ... the biggest ... glut of cars bright trucks that they&#x27;re not selling ... so those muscles losses are written off once the highways are open ... inventory will be going towards Houston to meet demand for for new automobiles nets can be sufficient for long ... a pretty large prolonged here to tell that it&#x27;s ... not tied to a guy thing but also five hundred thousand cars are estimated to be scrapped it right on because of the storm ... which would be again you know roughly ... four to six percent ... of the small number of lower scrap plastic Putin was good to the dredging costs because were to see the starting the weekend in ... September nineteen in September sixteen ... in the initial jobless claims data ... so Thursday morning starting a week from from tomorrow ... you&#x27;re going to see initial claims surge ... similar to what you saw ... associated with after Hurricane Katrina ... and Rita ... then that doesn&#x27;t mean that were to move off trend ... pride ... in just a reason to be some significant deviation over the next several months ... it will really be that sentimental imagine a lot of people or have been displaced by the storm right now ... couldn&#x27;t even file for unemployment rate will be has been the ... that and the human ... the sport in Houston ... the movement of hundreds of thousands of people ... who started last Wednesday and Thursday will have ... a lot of those people will have filed for unemployment this week I&#x27;ve been that week which we reported tomorrow morning ... I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised if unemployment claims drop tomorrow morning ... and outsize fashion ... they know CNN remember ... um in terms of filing for unemployment thing God most of this on doing that right now ... you can do it on your phone you can do it via the internet and mobile ... and people who are on the move will try to do that best they can ... but today it is going to be very choppy Union and see a pretty significant increase ... in coming weeks ... and then it will begin to slowly dissipated ... them probably over the next three to five months will move back porch Brent ... and ... I mean this is like they get to something and I&#x27;m ... writing here which is that you know unfortunately we&#x27;ve seen this a number of time before we had Hurricane Katrina we had a good superstorm Sandy with a number of other hurricanes ... adverse weather effects recently in use he it seems sort of like a ... aam ... the semi think lays out each of these times you have sort of ... that&#x27;s the short term drag on the economy in the mall to four-year Tanya met with vehicle sales and jobless claims in on this and then ... and then you have server rebuilding then and I&#x27;m ... is this the soda effort that that can kind of boost the economy so so when we do with it if you&#x27;re expecting that to serve take place when one with that&#x27;s new now ... how to play so we&#x27;re going to see the release of two tenths of a percent rise in the current quarter hmm right ... and then we will start to see the boasts an overall lack connectivity ... in the fourth quarter in the first quarter of next year unless Beyond&#x27;s cuz I&#x27;m not come economist ready ... don&#x27;t confuse a neck second increase in economic to determining what an actual increase in overall welfare ... there are lots of buildings and structures that have been paid for a better going to be ... ripped apart and destroyed and then have to be rebuilt from that&#x27;s a direct loss of overall well for him to be re directing activity ... that would be going elsewhere ... to Houston you&#x27;re also going to see a pretty big increase ... in the annual operating deficits in twenty seventeen ... in twenty eighteen ... out of the federal government&#x27;s very import to remember ... the one hundred and twenty billion dollars ... in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina ... building New Orleans which is a fairly small city for a few Sees the fourth largest city in United States ... it hasn&#x27;t been probably right around and into two seventeen ... twenty seventeen ... the GDP of five hundred and thirty billion dollars that makes is bigger than Sweden&#x27;s the car I may ... be ... much of that city&#x27;s going to have to be rebuilt ... we simply are believed ... the fourth largest city ... hanging to dry on the fly ... and I it&#x27;s simply not going to happen and that&#x27;s not going to happen overnight I that no building has been going for here last year Frank ... the ... I&#x27;d give ... the administration gentleman CEO honest response so far been a year the Mini Plus ... okay why don&#x27;t I don&#x27;t disagree but why because the head of femur ... last Friday when the kid apparent that we&#x27;re going to have a catastrophe said ... team is going to be on the ground for ... the years ... and that&#x27;s the most truthful statement ... under were seen ... during any of this catastrophe ... may give them all the credit they haven&#x27;t a hope that they&#x27;re fully staffed ... and fully funded we can talk about funding that was left yes let&#x27;s let&#x27;s call it a quick break I will talk about that ... we are talking to Joseph yourself this Willis from our SM Prime Now Harvey any effect on taxes and the U S economy ... you are listening to MoneyBeat from the Wall Street Journal ... follow the law Street Journal in your favorite podcast App sex WSJ on Apple podcast I radio spot if I Google Play Music stitcher and any Amazon likes it and I it&#x27;s ... the Wall Street Journal listen and viciously welcome to MoneyBeat home Stephen here in the studio in New York City with a Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Eisen ... and Joseph Bruce Willis chief economist at our as I am ... talking about Hurricane hard he ... the devastation in Houston in effect on the economy ... and and show you dimension and that theme the speeded up front lesson he said that they know they said look wimpy on the ground for years which is obviously too which means ... he beat government is going to have to be involved in this for years as well ... as a Negroes that something really ... really cranky into a little bit here what I mean it ... connoisseurs of packs of legislative schedule I come September meaning of ... funding the government ... to the debt ceiling ... and now you have no passing a whole fleet disaster relief for use in ... Howell ... as you pointed out earlier ... you see Andy took sixty five days ... when your when you&#x27;re expecting ... out of Congress ... did and I have so much on the plate ... okay so in September six were in a published article Norris and really only product called holdings in September ... pray ... so this is what has to happen ... during the twelve days of September ... that the government ... funding to ensure funding be on September twenty nine ... according to treasurer secretary and he can go in about October fourteen from the real prompted day ... ok and they have to agree upon ... a method of lifting the U S debt ceiling ... that&#x27;s first and foremost ... while they&#x27;re doing that they have to reauthorize the Children&#x27;s Health insurance program ... which covers children&#x27;s health but in a different way across many states in some states that comes with the covers when this pregnancy ... they have to reauthorize ... the flood National flood insurance program ... timely timely break even if you lose his job as early as the head of financial service Committee ... even though he&#x27;s from Texas and he&#x27;s not having a ... striking one to major media reform ... lighting couldn&#x27;t including increasing rates and another things ... that you would think would be well rather ill timed political ... will see of the guys any also can now would I think yesterday the day before and said no not one tacked on reform just to re authorize them to push forward ... with trying to reform to use interesting around ten o&#x27;clock in the morning he said that by two pm ... the Republicans and Democrats in the Senate said no we&#x27;re going a different way ... so we will see the Fed goes ... the federal office of the FA is gonna have to be reauthorized ... and of course we have to arrive in the fiscal year twenty eighteen ... budget bill to all that has to happen ... in addition to ... the special supplemental ... to deal with the Hurricanes economic aftermath all that has to happen before they can actually pay that and then do ... tax reform which the Republicans are telling us down in Washington they&#x27;re going to use reconciliation is the vehicle ... that&#x27;s a lot that under any all circumstances right ... so my senses weaken have to budget shutdowns this year ... one in late September early October and then another one in December ... that&#x27;s a very very possible ... second ... there&#x27;s nothin and the unanimous disagreement within the Republican caucus ... on what to do ... about ... um questing ... and the Republican party no longer exists is a single entity is actually three factions ... and wishes to start talking about is three and a vigil factions ... and then there&#x27;s the Democrats and they&#x27;re going to have their own ... um things to say about this in the midst of rebuilding the wall are paying for it ... this is so much there ... now ... here&#x27;s what&#x27;s important right now today ... at the start of this week ... Natasha um ... the the top part of online security had three billion on hand to deal with this ... we called on Washington yesterday that sum was gone ... it was going to be billion dollars to twenty eight photo card ... and a couple of days in a couple days just disappear ... the National flood insurance program ... had five point three billion on hand responder flood disasters one point six million or one point seven billion which is Ardi been ... the Nikkei ... so they&#x27;re roughly about three a half billion ... on hand ... one can probably guess by the end of this week ... so ... that&#x27;ll be going ... okay so not only that ... the National flood insurance program has them ... the deficit or roughly about twenty four a half billion dollars ... so that means to be funded ... before we start addressing ... Houston ... okay so we&#x27;ve got to real work ... you know this is a time for the adults to step forward in the room ... would need to have an adult conversation ... about what happened ... I were to prevent it ... how we&#x27;re going to finance the rebuilding and reconstruction ... of the fourth largest economy ... to the fourth largest city ... in the United States ... simply say no we&#x27;re not going to do this is a nonstarter ... and and how optimistic are you that that that this group can set up a paper over their differences you know ... nothing nothing like a human tragedy to to to really get people to come and ... come to the table instead of talking or or is that of the kids when amendments the sixty four thousand dollars in this rescue ... um I spend way too much going in Washington more than for more than I ever wanted to intended to ... and I don&#x27;t have a lot of confidence today ... that this group skinny get all of this done by the middle of October ... this is going to spill into over and Christmas ... later in the year we again because to Chris&#x27;s to ... government shutdowns ... over the debt ceiling in in the budget ... later this year ... we were going to have a very difficult conversation ... in this country were in law the difficult conversations for a long time ... but the one this can happen over the next summer months this ... If older provide somewhere between which is a ... sixty five billion hundred billion in direct reconstruction funds ... can be deficit finances are going to be definite deficit financed her ... how would you soon change ... its development model ... with respect to zoning ... let&#x27;s just be open on it about this ... ok apart from climate change right ... what were seen as a function of ... too much concrete ... filling in wetlands which will absorb low wall ... with the American people are going to give ... upwards of a hundred billion to Houston to rebuild ... they&#x27;re going to be some strings attached to the US ... REIT ... Houston&#x27;s not going away ... it&#x27;s not a genie and his demands then the Genia texts ... but we&#x27;re gonna have to have this very difficult conversation ... because we&#x27;ve had six major storms that have caused significant damage ... over the past ten years ... right ... so this is just one ... difficult conversation right ... the others unity ok we ... were in a deficit finances are linked ... a weakening demand offsets in spending at a time when ... we&#x27;re going in the talking about in more is Tax cut The presidents in Missouri today right he&#x27;s gonna talk about reducing the corporate income tax ... from twenty five to thirty five to twenty five percent of women say ... for every point ... you reduce the corporate income tax ... rate ... you have to create hundred and ten billion in revenues to make an unusual concept she ... sort of get over trillion dollars hear what&#x27;s on the play right now ... rolling back the mortgage interest ... deduction happen added half a million ... them and eliminating state and local deductions ... aam around from the tax deductions around the country ok that&#x27;s just for starters ... if you look it that financially economically okay that sorta possible ... read logistical better policy lines ... well ... yes and you&#x27;re essentially targeting California Illinois in your crock and politically gap that some parts that the hard sell The to be some significant right ... opposition on both sides the aisle because which no one has ... to do something that results in ... basically people come becoming internal tax ... exiles ... and creating new nose ALP&#x27;s and Delaware everyone moves to Florida ... writing for Washington writer New Hampshire ... so ... this is a lot ... and this is a lot and under any circumstances ... but given the context of what we&#x27;re talking about today ... this is just ... a low probability event with them to come home I mean have happened ... this isn&#x27;t going to ... maybe I should be misunderstood him for Baker Hughes and destroy the country no matter how ugly it is politically know by now one piece de ... summing ... one ... and and cutter look what but still stretches ... also one year ahead ... I know when you&#x27;re at a party that were witty see ... this whole thing in and when he ... took that route is all the states can in ... deeply Conte rest ... the images that we&#x27;ve seen over the past several years ... moving to them good decent people ... from rescuing their neighbors ... because they have no expectation that the government can gather together ... to do that so self-help is reined in that&#x27;s a good thing ... when you are real heroes were seen ... you know in this this is saying that ... this isn&#x27;t just a nobody Archer flat voting going on in in in in the sky what this is ... this is ex military says these are ex military people people who are off duty police and fire officers ... they&#x27;re becoming effective first were spawning a weekly Lotto win allies on the literally just for their fellow human beings ... right ... okay ... a year from now we&#x27;re going to be each other&#x27;s throats over the US is essentially what this could be ... and that&#x27;s given me the contrast ... in New York we know we know what this means we all lived in the aftermath of nine eleven which we&#x27;ll talk about for a lighter reasons ... um ... but it&#x27;s it&#x27;s it&#x27;s probably instructive with with respect to where we&#x27;re going ... I was first you know with respect to the policy ... discussion often as the politics just policy went into politics in Japan is as horrible is an island was he was a different environment it right ... I is is politically economically used different via the federal government was running a surplus we have right with all the responded that the country&#x27;s very unified about this ... um and then just disintegrated very quickly within about six to twelve months ... here we are very different situation were running large annual operating deficits ... of course to do this in use around the president and his and his rhetoric is tweets and his policy ... can ... really be the logical defenses inside the governing party right now ... the tothe freedom caucuses Cisco will keep this differently than the Paul Ryan Republicans ... for the company has been in and the Democrats are going to X turret exert a powerful political price ... via spending ... the financing of things ... in order to lift the debt ceiling and were to arrive in FY ... twenty ten budget make no mistake Mr Ryan ... Mr McConnell are going to cut deals ... with Mr Schumer in this post ... that&#x27;s held that the ending yet ... what it would setting game look like ... in the short-term ... next few months ... the Congress basically do what they&#x27;ve done a lot ... pass some short-term ... to raise the debt ceiling on the government ... you know provide short-term funding to Houston ... aam Pollitt said December ... is at Lagoon a lot to calls for a way to ... get this done quickly and then ... you kick the can down the road person ... so why is that the September fifteen December thirty first period to look alot like twenty eleven ... Friday we saw a continuing resolution after continued evolution user to kick the can down the road ... and then you cut a deal to last possible moment when a lot of people are in contention ... in hopes that your political base does in July that new ... evidence is to bring this back to two when he has failed the people of peace then the people of the of the Gulf Coast ... aam it you can get service kicking the can down the road ... and is a sense of of of what they can expects anything about the National flood insurance program and to some sort of some of the rebuilding efforts this ... can of the way that or you know the one big difference between these two New Orleans ... is that he&#x27;s got a much bigger voice in a much bigger boot to put in people&#x27;s backsides in ... the petrochemical industry oil and energy industry ... the tech ... industry Houston to Texas political sell the strength ... to demand that things are going to get done ... that&#x27;s probably the best thing we have going for it right now ... is they&#x27;re going to have to be listened to ... the Fortune the New Orleans ... Louisiana at that point and God bless them all ... they just didn&#x27;t happen ... in a ... still rings tough job sobering stuff ... Joseph Bruce Willis is chief economist at our as am ... I think come in a really appreciated thank you everyone thank you for listening and will talk to you soon ...&#x22;,&#x22;videoStillURL&#x22;:&#x22;https://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_512x288.jpg&#x22;,&#x22;videoURL&#x22;:&#x22;http://hdsvod-f.akamaihd.net/z/wsj/audio/20170830/pod-mb20170830harvey/pod-mb20170830harvey_64k.mp4/manifest.f4m&#x22;,&#x22;wsj-section&#x22;:null,&#x22;wsj-subsection&#x22;:null,&#x22;metaTags&#x22;:[{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:description&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;RSM&#x27;s Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas breaks down the financial aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, from its immediate impact on legislation and government to the long term effect on the economy overall.   &#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:image&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;http://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_1280x720.jpg&#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:image:secure_url&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;https://m.wsj.net/audio/18000102/moneybeat/moneybeat_1280x720.jpg&#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:image:type&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;image/jpeg&#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:image:width&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;1280&#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:image:height&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;720&#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:title&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;Hurricane Harvey: The Financial Aftermath &#x22;},{&#x22;property&#x22;:&#x22;og:url&#x22;,&#x22;content&#x22;:&#x22;http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/hurricane-harvey-the-financial-aftermath/5FFECC05-35A4-4CE2-8DC5-9885D9053E50.html&#x22;}],&#x22;hasTranscript&#x22;:true,&#x22;onPage&#x22;:true}">
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    <h3>MoneyBeat</h3>
    <h1 itemprop="name">Hurricane Harvey: The Financial Aftermath </h1>
    <meta itemprop="duration" content="PT23M30S">
    <meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2017-08-30T16:48:41Z">
    <meta itemprop="thumbnail" content="">
    <span class="published">8/30/2017 11:48AM</span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<span class="duration"></span>
    <div class="description">
      <h2 itemprop="caption">RSM&#39;s Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas breaks down the financial aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, from its immediate impact on legislation and government to the long term effect on the economy overall.   </h2>
    </div>
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    <div id="transcript" class="active"><a href="#" class="btn">Show Transcript </a>
      <div><p>This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.</p><p itemprop="transcript">... there ... is money The ... Wall Street Journal ... now my ... duty as the New York ... euro Paul vignette and Stephen Dresser Lou Reed but he will come to the MoneyBeat podcast Hall and Steve here in the studio in your city ... I&#39;m joined today by Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Eisen who everybody of pot cancers will podcast is no well then how are you ... get you um and also joining us in the studio too said Bruce Willis is chief economist at our as them up ... and you bet on ... it I&#39;m not allowed to those who will come back when and what they do ... and will look forward and talk about today is Hurricane Harvey and obviously ... the human toll the catastrophe all those things are are paramount importance in Houston Texas are still dealing with this in and ... we feel very sympathetic course was going on down there ... but we also we have to talk about the economic fallout what it is going to mean from that perspective ... so that is ... that we do here were business ... worthy of publication business ... focus vocation that sort of hot weather as we wanted to bring in Joe taken to the EU started ... crunching the numbers and I mean obviously we don&#39;t know what the final impact of the storm is going to know it&#39;s awful well we don&#39;t exactly compete ... for were starting to get an EP of love with the economic damage ... yet he does a good starting point is it&#39;s going to be worse than will fit ... our initial estimates are ... for every week Confucian shut down in the greater Houston Metroplex along the Gulf Coast and Louisiana ... the uninitiated about one tenth of a percent of GDP activity ... in the current national GDP national di Pisa right now I&#39;ve got to Perth ... to transfer percent ... penciled in ... now some of what&#39;s coming out of the official sector produce troop parts of eastern Indian water for a month there&#39;s the Proms clearing the shipping channel ... well that&#39;s good that&#39;s going to change ... right ... ALM so right now that twenty four billion economic losses for greater than twenty four billion ... another forty six million the structural damages ... so what we&#39;re going to get is a situation that still require ... the preteen coaching policy response ... out of the U S Congress ... which by the way only has twelve calendar days ... on the docket before actually we were not among the ... so within there&#39;s gonna be some heavy lifting that goes on ... starting ... September fit them things are getting hit very contentious ... as we all know here in the north the ... Hurricane Sandy right it took those guys sixty five days to get to it ... while Congress to do a bill that trend I don&#39;t think we&#39;re going to see me being different from that here are the organist you want to extenders ... into ... a curve resolutions ... just to keep things going until they can get their ducks in a row ... they ordered two ... of the hurricane relief and then all of the other things that they&#39;re going have to do ... um to the Rainier the year before they get to the bottom ... while ... and then we can answer some of the ripple effects throughout the economy handing it to Houston and Corpus Christi ports which ... he noted the other day that they they they handle a lot of the week ... I&#39;m not twenty five percent a week and I knew and then of course you got that that energy is what energy production shutting down I mean ... Hattie think about it ... um ... you know how this will ripple to be on the Gulf Coast ... ok will couple things first it with this is the issue the starting ... of talking points ... up one hill ... potential chemical couple of the United States is effectively shut up ... and ... cry ... it has them this morning ... twenty three percent ... of all oil refining capacity shutdown ... that&#39;s exactly the same amount that was shut down ... um caused by Hurricane Katrina and Rita combined ... of course you know the size of the of the sector somewhat different ... so actually it in real terms a lot bigger focus ... that&#39;s because gasoline prices to go up ... in Texas alone there to see twenty to thirty percent ... um increases as soon as they can get their cars back moving you start going to work ... heroes are pretty and simple right now on on a national bases importantly ... here or you know were sitting here in Midtown Manhattan I live just a few blocks away ... most of the ghastly me get in the Northeast Washington to Boston ... comes ... from Houston ... Morgan is seeing ... a sharp increase in gasoline prices starting ... over the much traveled ... Labor Day holiday week ... so you&#39;re going to see that had nothing to see that ... for our east to see gasoline prices go up in Europe ... in Latin America because we&#39;re going to have to import gasoline ... to make up for shortages ... over the next month or two before things are really back to normal ... thank God for free trade agreement ... so we are the best I can talk about how ... you have this is going to also impact ... the shale industry employment there I mean how is this coming pop up ads with the economic data there when I start seeing one rolling out over the next month or so ... okay so you&#39;re going to start seen in total vehicle sales on Friday afternoon ... will be a very late impact ... but over the next two months it will be having ... them in the law reversed during falling to strike ... when you when you say you mean you get a ... pop up in vehicles on Sunday in a given notice to the negative impacts just because that that part of the yes yes ... I can and will see more of a negative impact during October ... sales in the November December you can see a big ... pickup ... to be blunt this is one of these things is really difficult to talk about ... them ... our office in Houston shutdown we have ... very ... dear employees and in this place ... the Saudis say this with a happy heart ... this is going to help the U S auto industry because they&#39;ve got a ... the biggest ... glut of cars bright trucks that they&#39;re not selling ... so those muscles losses are written off once the highways are open ... inventory will be going towards Houston to meet demand for for new automobiles nets can be sufficient for long ... a pretty large prolonged here to tell that it&#39;s ... not tied to a guy thing but also five hundred thousand cars are estimated to be scrapped it right on because of the storm ... which would be again you know roughly ... four to six percent ... of the small number of lower scrap plastic Putin was good to the dredging costs because were to see the starting the weekend in ... September nineteen in September sixteen ... in the initial jobless claims data ... so Thursday morning starting a week from from tomorrow ... you&#39;re going to see initial claims surge ... similar to what you saw ... associated with after Hurricane Katrina ... and Rita ... then that doesn&#39;t mean that were to move off trend ... pride ... in just a reason to be some significant deviation over the next several months ... it will really be that sentimental imagine a lot of people or have been displaced by the storm right now ... couldn&#39;t even file for unemployment rate will be has been the ... that and the human ... the sport in Houston ... the movement of hundreds of thousands of people ... who started last Wednesday and Thursday will have ... a lot of those people will have filed for unemployment this week I&#39;ve been that week which we reported tomorrow morning ... I wouldn&#39;t be surprised if unemployment claims drop tomorrow morning ... and outsize fashion ... they know CNN remember ... um in terms of filing for unemployment thing God most of this on doing that right now ... you can do it on your phone you can do it via the internet and mobile ... and people who are on the move will try to do that best they can ... but today it is going to be very choppy Union and see a pretty significant increase ... in coming weeks ... and then it will begin to slowly dissipated ... them probably over the next three to five months will move back porch Brent ... and ... I mean this is like they get to something and I&#39;m ... writing here which is that you know unfortunately we&#39;ve seen this a number of time before we had Hurricane Katrina we had a good superstorm Sandy with a number of other hurricanes ... adverse weather effects recently in use he it seems sort of like a ... aam ... the semi think lays out each of these times you have sort of ... that&#39;s the short term drag on the economy in the mall to four-year Tanya met with vehicle sales and jobless claims in on this and then ... and then you have server rebuilding then and I&#39;m ... is this the soda effort that that can kind of boost the economy so so when we do with it if you&#39;re expecting that to serve take place when one with that&#39;s new now ... how to play so we&#39;re going to see the release of two tenths of a percent rise in the current quarter hmm right ... and then we will start to see the boasts an overall lack connectivity ... in the fourth quarter in the first quarter of next year unless Beyond&#39;s cuz I&#39;m not come economist ready ... don&#39;t confuse a neck second increase in economic to determining what an actual increase in overall welfare ... there are lots of buildings and structures that have been paid for a better going to be ... ripped apart and destroyed and then have to be rebuilt from that&#39;s a direct loss of overall well for him to be re directing activity ... that would be going elsewhere ... to Houston you&#39;re also going to see a pretty big increase ... in the annual operating deficits in twenty seventeen ... in twenty eighteen ... out of the federal government&#39;s very import to remember ... the one hundred and twenty billion dollars ... in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina ... building New Orleans which is a fairly small city for a few Sees the fourth largest city in United States ... it hasn&#39;t been probably right around and into two seventeen ... twenty seventeen ... the GDP of five hundred and thirty billion dollars that makes is bigger than Sweden&#39;s the car I may ... be ... much of that city&#39;s going to have to be rebuilt ... we simply are believed ... the fourth largest city ... hanging to dry on the fly ... and I it&#39;s simply not going to happen and that&#39;s not going to happen overnight I that no building has been going for here last year Frank ... the ... I&#39;d give ... the administration gentleman CEO honest response so far been a year the Mini Plus ... okay why don&#39;t I don&#39;t disagree but why because the head of femur ... last Friday when the kid apparent that we&#39;re going to have a catastrophe said ... team is going to be on the ground for ... the years ... and that&#39;s the most truthful statement ... under were seen ... during any of this catastrophe ... may give them all the credit they haven&#39;t a hope that they&#39;re fully staffed ... and fully funded we can talk about funding that was left yes let&#39;s let&#39;s call it a quick break I will talk about that ... we are talking to Joseph yourself this Willis from our SM Prime Now Harvey any effect on taxes and the U S economy ... you are listening to MoneyBeat from the Wall Street Journal ... follow the law Street Journal in your favorite podcast App sex WSJ on Apple podcast I radio spot if I Google Play Music stitcher and any Amazon likes it and I it&#39;s ... the Wall Street Journal listen and viciously welcome to MoneyBeat home Stephen here in the studio in New York City with a Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Eisen ... and Joseph Bruce Willis chief economist at our as I am ... talking about Hurricane hard he ... the devastation in Houston in effect on the economy ... and and show you dimension and that theme the speeded up front lesson he said that they know they said look wimpy on the ground for years which is obviously too which means ... he beat government is going to have to be involved in this for years as well ... as a Negroes that something really ... really cranky into a little bit here what I mean it ... connoisseurs of packs of legislative schedule I come September meaning of ... funding the government ... to the debt ceiling ... and now you have no passing a whole fleet disaster relief for use in ... Howell ... as you pointed out earlier ... you see Andy took sixty five days ... when your when you&#39;re expecting ... out of Congress ... did and I have so much on the plate ... okay so in September six were in a published article Norris and really only product called holdings in September ... pray ... so this is what has to happen ... during the twelve days of September ... that the government ... funding to ensure funding be on September twenty nine ... according to treasurer secretary and he can go in about October fourteen from the real prompted day ... ok and they have to agree upon ... a method of lifting the U S debt ceiling ... that&#39;s first and foremost ... while they&#39;re doing that they have to reauthorize the Children&#39;s Health insurance program ... which covers children&#39;s health but in a different way across many states in some states that comes with the covers when this pregnancy ... they have to reauthorize ... the flood National flood insurance program ... timely timely break even if you lose his job as early as the head of financial service Committee ... even though he&#39;s from Texas and he&#39;s not having a ... striking one to major media reform ... lighting couldn&#39;t including increasing rates and another things ... that you would think would be well rather ill timed political ... will see of the guys any also can now would I think yesterday the day before and said no not one tacked on reform just to re authorize them to push forward ... with trying to reform to use interesting around ten o&#39;clock in the morning he said that by two pm ... the Republicans and Democrats in the Senate said no we&#39;re going a different way ... so we will see the Fed goes ... the federal office of the FA is gonna have to be reauthorized ... and of course we have to arrive in the fiscal year twenty eighteen ... budget bill to all that has to happen ... in addition to ... the special supplemental ... to deal with the Hurricanes economic aftermath all that has to happen before they can actually pay that and then do ... tax reform which the Republicans are telling us down in Washington they&#39;re going to use reconciliation is the vehicle ... that&#39;s a lot that under any all circumstances right ... so my senses weaken have to budget shutdowns this year ... one in late September early October and then another one in December ... that&#39;s a very very possible ... second ... there&#39;s nothin and the unanimous disagreement within the Republican caucus ... on what to do ... about ... um questing ... and the Republican party no longer exists is a single entity is actually three factions ... and wishes to start talking about is three and a vigil factions ... and then there&#39;s the Democrats and they&#39;re going to have their own ... um things to say about this in the midst of rebuilding the wall are paying for it ... this is so much there ... now ... here&#39;s what&#39;s important right now today ... at the start of this week ... Natasha um ... the the top part of online security had three billion on hand to deal with this ... we called on Washington yesterday that sum was gone ... it was going to be billion dollars to twenty eight photo card ... and a couple of days in a couple days just disappear ... the National flood insurance program ... had five point three billion on hand responder flood disasters one point six million or one point seven billion which is Ardi been ... the Nikkei ... so they&#39;re roughly about three a half billion ... on hand ... one can probably guess by the end of this week ... so ... that&#39;ll be going ... okay so not only that ... the National flood insurance program has them ... the deficit or roughly about twenty four a half billion dollars ... so that means to be funded ... before we start addressing ... Houston ... okay so we&#39;ve got to real work ... you know this is a time for the adults to step forward in the room ... would need to have an adult conversation ... about what happened ... I were to prevent it ... how we&#39;re going to finance the rebuilding and reconstruction ... of the fourth largest economy ... to the fourth largest city ... in the United States ... simply say no we&#39;re not going to do this is a nonstarter ... and and how optimistic are you that that that this group can set up a paper over their differences you know ... nothing nothing like a human tragedy to to to really get people to come and ... come to the table instead of talking or or is that of the kids when amendments the sixty four thousand dollars in this rescue ... um I spend way too much going in Washington more than for more than I ever wanted to intended to ... and I don&#39;t have a lot of confidence today ... that this group skinny get all of this done by the middle of October ... this is going to spill into over and Christmas ... later in the year we again because to Chris&#39;s to ... government shutdowns ... over the debt ceiling in in the budget ... later this year ... we were going to have a very difficult conversation ... in this country were in law the difficult conversations for a long time ... but the one this can happen over the next summer months this ... If older provide somewhere between which is a ... sixty five billion hundred billion in direct reconstruction funds ... can be deficit finances are going to be definite deficit financed her ... how would you soon change ... its development model ... with respect to zoning ... let&#39;s just be open on it about this ... ok apart from climate change right ... what were seen as a function of ... too much concrete ... filling in wetlands which will absorb low wall ... with the American people are going to give ... upwards of a hundred billion to Houston to rebuild ... they&#39;re going to be some strings attached to the US ... REIT ... Houston&#39;s not going away ... it&#39;s not a genie and his demands then the Genia texts ... but we&#39;re gonna have to have this very difficult conversation ... because we&#39;ve had six major storms that have caused significant damage ... over the past ten years ... right ... so this is just one ... difficult conversation right ... the others unity ok we ... were in a deficit finances are linked ... a weakening demand offsets in spending at a time when ... we&#39;re going in the talking about in more is Tax cut The presidents in Missouri today right he&#39;s gonna talk about reducing the corporate income tax ... from twenty five to thirty five to twenty five percent of women say ... for every point ... you reduce the corporate income tax ... rate ... you have to create hundred and ten billion in revenues to make an unusual concept she ... sort of get over trillion dollars hear what&#39;s on the play right now ... rolling back the mortgage interest ... deduction happen added half a million ... them and eliminating state and local deductions ... aam around from the tax deductions around the country ok that&#39;s just for starters ... if you look it that financially economically okay that sorta possible ... read logistical better policy lines ... well ... yes and you&#39;re essentially targeting California Illinois in your crock and politically gap that some parts that the hard sell The to be some significant right ... opposition on both sides the aisle because which no one has ... to do something that results in ... basically people come becoming internal tax ... exiles ... and creating new nose ALP&#39;s and Delaware everyone moves to Florida ... writing for Washington writer New Hampshire ... so ... this is a lot ... and this is a lot and under any circumstances ... but given the context of what we&#39;re talking about today ... this is just ... a low probability event with them to come home I mean have happened ... this isn&#39;t going to ... maybe I should be misunderstood him for Baker Hughes and destroy the country no matter how ugly it is politically know by now one piece de ... summing ... one ... and and cutter look what but still stretches ... also one year ahead ... I know when you&#39;re at a party that were witty see ... this whole thing in and when he ... took that route is all the states can in ... deeply Conte rest ... the images that we&#39;ve seen over the past several years ... moving to them good decent people ... from rescuing their neighbors ... because they have no expectation that the government can gather together ... to do that so self-help is reined in that&#39;s a good thing ... when you are real heroes were seen ... you know in this this is saying that ... this isn&#39;t just a nobody Archer flat voting going on in in in in the sky what this is ... this is ex military says these are ex military people people who are off duty police and fire officers ... they&#39;re becoming effective first were spawning a weekly Lotto win allies on the literally just for their fellow human beings ... right ... okay ... a year from now we&#39;re going to be each other&#39;s throats over the US is essentially what this could be ... and that&#39;s given me the contrast ... in New York we know we know what this means we all lived in the aftermath of nine eleven which we&#39;ll talk about for a lighter reasons ... um ... but it&#39;s it&#39;s it&#39;s probably instructive with with respect to where we&#39;re going ... I was first you know with respect to the policy ... discussion often as the politics just policy went into politics in Japan is as horrible is an island was he was a different environment it right ... I is is politically economically used different via the federal government was running a surplus we have right with all the responded that the country&#39;s very unified about this ... um and then just disintegrated very quickly within about six to twelve months ... here we are very different situation were running large annual operating deficits ... of course to do this in use around the president and his and his rhetoric is tweets and his policy ... can ... really be the logical defenses inside the governing party right now ... the tothe freedom caucuses Cisco will keep this differently than the Paul Ryan Republicans ... for the company has been in and the Democrats are going to X turret exert a powerful political price ... via spending ... the financing of things ... in order to lift the debt ceiling and were to arrive in FY ... twenty ten budget make no mistake Mr Ryan ... Mr McConnell are going to cut deals ... with Mr Schumer in this post ... that&#39;s held that the ending yet ... what it would setting game look like ... in the short-term ... next few months ... the Congress basically do what they&#39;ve done a lot ... pass some short-term ... to raise the debt ceiling on the government ... you know provide short-term funding to Houston ... aam Pollitt said December ... is at Lagoon a lot to calls for a way to ... get this done quickly and then ... you kick the can down the road person ... so why is that the September fifteen December thirty first period to look alot like twenty eleven ... Friday we saw a continuing resolution after continued evolution user to kick the can down the road ... and then you cut a deal to last possible moment when a lot of people are in contention ... in hopes that your political base does in July that new ... evidence is to bring this back to two when he has failed the people of peace then the people of the of the Gulf Coast ... aam it you can get service kicking the can down the road ... and is a sense of of of what they can expects anything about the National flood insurance program and to some sort of some of the rebuilding efforts this ... can of the way that or you know the one big difference between these two New Orleans ... is that he&#39;s got a much bigger voice in a much bigger boot to put in people&#39;s backsides in ... the petrochemical industry oil and energy industry ... the tech ... industry Houston to Texas political sell the strength ... to demand that things are going to get done ... that&#39;s probably the best thing we have going for it right now ... is they&#39;re going to have to be listened to ... the Fortune the New Orleans ... Louisiana at that point and God bless them all ... they just didn&#39;t happen ... in a ... still rings tough job sobering stuff ... Joseph Bruce Willis is chief economist at our as am ... I think come in a really appreciated thank you everyone thank you for listening and will talk to you soon ...</p></div>
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            <span class="duration">6:25</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Consumer, Housing Data on Tap This Week</h3>
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    <h3 class="title">Why It&#39;s Time to Rethink the 4% Retirement Rule</h3>
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            <span class="duration">18:56</span>
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    <h3 class="title">The Age of Quantum Computing is (Almost) Here </h3>
        <span class="date">2/7/2018 1:30AM</span>
        <p>Quantum computers are no longer the stuff of science fiction. In the first of a two-part series, we talk to industry executives who are experimenting with this revolutionary technology and take you inside a lab racing to make it a reality.</p>
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-disappearing-act-of-the-music-producer/70A6B4FA-0B67-4E3C-B6B2-6C3935FA02DD.html" title="The Disappearing Act of the Music Producer?  " >
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            <span class="duration">18:53</span>
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        <span class="date">1/24/2018 1:30AM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">23:15</span>
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            <span class="duration">27:23</span>
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    <h3 class="title">The Very Risky Business of Underwriting Innovation </h3>
        <span class="date">12/20/2017 1:30AM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">21:47</span>
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            <span class="duration">8:05</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Should Office Romance Be Banned?</h3>
        <span class="date">2/13/2018 12:30AM</span>
        <p>A.M. Edition for February 13: In the era of #MeToo, companies are facing new questions when it comes to setting the rules for office romance. Beth Zoller, legal editor at XpertHR, talks about how companies should navigate office romances.</p>
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/trump-unveils-200-billion-infrastructure-plan-but-who-paying/2DCB6225-03A0-4B52-8CA5-71839A0C109D.html" title="Trump Unveils $200 Billion Infrastructure Plan, But Who&#39;s Paying?" >
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            <span class="duration">7:48</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Trump Unveils $200 Billion Infrastructure Plan, But Who&#39;s Paying?</h3>
        <span class="date">2/12/2018 1:49PM</span>
        
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/consumer-housing-data-on-tap-this-week/D9A6738E-E525-425C-8D75-FC8000663ABD.html" title="Consumer, Housing Data on Tap This Week" >
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            <span class="duration">6:25</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Consumer, Housing Data on Tap This Week</h3>
        <span class="date">2/12/2018 12:30AM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">6:59</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Wall Street Suffers its Worst Week in Two Years</h3>
        <span class="date">2/10/2018 12:30AM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">5:39</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Amazon to Roll Out New Delivery Service</h3>
        <span class="date">2/9/2018 12:56PM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">21:11</span>
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    <h3 class="title">The FBI and Christopher Steele </h3>
        <span class="date">2/7/2018 1:17PM</span>
        <p>Kim Strassel and Paul Gigot on what we&#39;re learning about the FBI and Christopher Steele.
</p>
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            <span class="duration">23:31</span>
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        <span class="date">2/6/2018 1:18PM</span>
        
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-house-intelligence-memo/057D7E21-9FDC-4349-9CAB-2E5936E7A23F.html" title="The House Intelligence Memo " >
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            <span class="duration">25:00</span>
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    <h3 class="title">The House Intelligence Memo </h3>
        <span class="date">2/2/2018 4:47PM</span>
        
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/trump-state-of-the-union/8BC9CFEB-F41B-4C3A-BF68-06EBB2A5EFE7.html" title="Trump&#39;s State of the Union  " >
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            <span class="duration">25:52</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Trump&#39;s State of the Union  </h3>
        <span class="date">1/31/2018 1:37PM</span>
        
    </a>    <a class="audio-thumb" href="http://www.wsj.com/podcasts/shakeup-at-the-fbi/4E0D5D91-A0F7-4CFF-A56A-60CA344573C1.html" title="Shakeup at the FBI " >
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            <span class="duration">21:30</span>
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    <h3 class="title">Shakeup at the FBI </h3>
        <span class="date">1/30/2018 2:51PM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/13/2018 12:15AM</span>
        <p>Would comparing February&#39;s pullback on Wall Street to past significant stocks corrections help paint a picture of where the market is likely to go from here? Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator discusses.</p>
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        <span class="date">2/12/2018 12:15AM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/9/2018 12:15AM</span>
        
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            <span class="duration">6:38</span>
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        <span class="date">2/8/2018 12:15AM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/7/2018 12:15AM</span>
        
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        <p>While Amazon may have ambitions to compete against FedEx and the UPS with its own shipping business, the Wall Street Journal&#39;s Laura Stevens talks why the online retail giant is a long way from reaching the scale of America&#39;s freight titans.  </p>
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        <span class="date">2/12/2018 12:05AM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/9/2018 12:05AM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/7/2018 12:05AM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/12/2018 12:07PM</span>
        <p>Mary Kissel and Hugo Restall on South Korea&#39;s outreach to Pyongyang and Beijing&#39;s financial woes. </p>
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        <span class="date">2/8/2018 1:55PM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/5/2018 12:17PM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/2/2018 4:33PM</span>
        
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        <span class="date">2/1/2018 10:39AM</span>
        
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