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			<h1 class="entry-title">Hurricane Harvey, Houston, and Preventing a Sequel</h1>
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				<div class="posted-info"><span class="byline">Posted by <span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://mattbray.net/author/formula1matt/">formula1matt</a></span></span><span class="posted-on"> <span class="date-published-word">on</span> <a href="https://mattbray.net/2017/08/29/hurricane-harvey-houston-and-preventing-a-sequel/" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2017-08-29T23:29:18+00:00">August 29, 2017</time><time class="updated" datetime="2017-09-01T14:30:42+00:00">September 1, 2017</time></a></span></div>			</div><!-- .entry-posted -->
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			<p>This past weekend Texas began experiencing the destructive wind and rain associated with Hurricane Harvey. I say &#8220;began&#8221; because the storm is still dumping rain on Texas and Louisiana, and the cleanup process will be long, expensive, and emotional. The loss of life could reach into the dozens and <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/30/harvey-costliest-natural-disaster-u-s-history-estimated-cost-160-billion/615708001/">the financial costs will be record breaking</a> (estimated to surpass the costs of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy combined). My hope is that in the wake of this devastating storm emergency planning officials (at the local, state, and federal levels) will work together with public and private entities to create 21st Century solutions to 21st Century problems. A rough sketch of what that might look like is below.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s important to note that I&#8217;m not criticizing those that didn&#8217;t evacuate. After reading about Houston&#8217;s history of mass evacuations for Hurricane Rita I understand the apprehension about leaving. The word from the mayor of Houston was to stay and that is what a lot of people did. What I&#8217;m arguing for is a better way to plan for natural disasters like Hurricane Harvey that are going to be increasingly frequent because of climate change. I would, however, question what was done post-Rita in terms of making evacuations more effective. There are materials on the <a href="http://www.h-gac.com/taq/hurricane/default.aspx">Houston-Galveston Area Council</a> website that pertain to evacuation routes and hurricane evacuation zones. Those seem to be completely static and don&#8217;t take into account situations like Hurricane Harvey where the main threat is not actually the wind but rather the sheer amount of rain this system was going to dump, Houston&#8217;s susceptibility to flooding, and the logistics of moving six million people out of harm&#8217;s way with 24-36 hours notice.</p>
<p>An example of the type of solution I&#8217;m talking about was announced in Australia this week: Using a combination of drones and machine learning-powered AI officials in charge of beach safety will be able to recognize sharks 90% of the time, allowing them to issue alerts and close beaches. The human-only system is capable of recognizing sharks less than 30% of the time. I believe a similar approach to thinking could be used in emergency preparation planning.</p>
<p>Public and private entities have a bunch of data about cities. Everything from elevation and sewer systems to census information. Cell phone companies have access to granular location information through triangulation. Tech giants like Google and Apple have historical data about traffic flow. Meteorologists have increasingly accurate and specific weather models that are able to forecast rainfall. All of that<span style="font-size:1.8rem;">&nbsp;data is begging to be fed into an advanced computer model that&#8217;s able to provide detailed information the expected impact on residents.</span>That detail would provide officials with more information about who to evacuate and the precise nature of the information would allow them to evacuate people by micro evacuation zones that would attempt to prevent some of the congestion issues that Houston has historically faced with getting that many people out of town quickly.</p>
<p>We also need to look at how we move people out of town. One thing that struck me looking at the news was the visual of all of the city and county buses lined up on the interstate in an effort to prevent them from being damaged by the rising floodwaters. Those along with any city and county school buses could have been put to use ferrying people out in an orderly fashion. One of the issues with cars is that they are very inefficient as a means of moving people en masse. A system that allows people to meet at the local high school or meet at a local sports arena and then get bused out of town would reduce the number of cars on the road. As an added bonus, those buses have a much higher ride height making them able to more easily clear objects while raising the air intake that can get flooded (one of the main reasons behind stalled cars in a flooding situation).</p>
<p>In addition to assisting with evacuations, there would also be an ability to used the proposed system to assist with designing additional dams and other storm control infrastructure to help deal with these storms when they do happen.</p>
<p>None of this is to say that we can make natural disasters death or injury free. But the goal with an approach like this is to use the technologies and science that we have to make these events less costly in terms of human life and allow cities states and the federal government to more accurately prepare and predict the impact of the severe weather. While Hurricane Harvey and the damage in Houston might be the first of its kind, it&#8217;s certainly not going to be the last.</p>
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