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    <title>Auto Stocks Have Yellow Caution Flag after Hurricane Harvey - Cabot Wealth Network</title>
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	                <h1>Auto Stocks Have Yellow Caution Flag after Hurricane Harvey</h1>

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				<span class="post-date">September 7, 2017<span class="divider">&#124;</span><span class="byline">by <a href="https://cabotwealth.com/analyst/crista-huff/" title="Posts by Crista Huff" rel="author">Crista Huff</a></span></span>
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				<figure class="hide-for-small medium-4 collapse-right columns post-thumbnail-wrap"><img width="544" height="600" src="https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff.png" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" alt="Crista Huff" srcset="https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff.png 544w, https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff-200x221.png 200w, https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff-272x300.png 272w, https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff-150x165.png 150w, https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/crista-huff-91x100.png 91w" sizes="(max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px" /></figure><p>The <em><a href="http://www.expressnews.com/business/local/article/Houston-auto-dealers-say-up-to-500-000-new-cars-12167542.php">San Antonio Express News</a></em> reported that approximately 300,000 insured autos will need to be replaced in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. While doing research for <em><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-undervalued-stocks-advisor/?mqsc=ip">Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor</a></em>, I looked at auto stocks. So let’s examine the earnings forecasts for major auto companies to see if any auto stocks demand further attention.</p>
<h4>Few Auto Companies Growing</h4>
<p><strong>Ford Motor (F – yield 5.3%)</strong> EPS are expected to fall 1.1% in 2017 and fall another 11.5% in 2018 (December year-end).</p>
<p><strong>General Motors (GM – yield 4.1%)</strong> EPS are expected to be flat EPS in 2017 (December year-end), then drop 3.3% in 2018.</p>
<p><strong>Honda Motor ADS (HMC – yield 3.0%)</strong> EPS are expected to fall 3.8% in fiscal 2018 (March year-end), then remain flat in 2019—not growing, but also not falling. There are only two analysts contributing to the consensus earnings estimate, so the actual results could differ to a large degree from the estimates, causing share price volatility.</p>
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<p class="lg-txt">Find out which stocks you should buy this month to make big money.</p>
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<p><strong>Nissan Motor Ltd. ADR (NSANY)</strong> EPS are expected to fall 12.1% in fiscal 2018 (March year-end), then rise 3.0% in 2019. There are only two analysts contributing to the consensus earnings estimate, so the actual results could differ to a large degree from the estimates, causing share price volatility.</p>
<p><strong>Tesla (TSLA)</strong> is expected to take a very large loss of ($6.30) per share in 2017, followed by a loss of ($0.98) per share in 2018 (December year-end). Wall Street’s earnings estimates for TSLA consistently decline as the months pass, so the actual year-end results will most likely be even worse.</p>
<p><strong>Toyota (TM – yield 3.3%)</strong> EPS are expected to fall 4.6% in 2017, then rise 3.7% in 2018.</p>
<p><strong>Volkswagen AG ADR (VLKAY) </strong>EPS are expected to rise 62.8 in fiscal 2017 (December year-end), then fall 5.2% in 2018. There is only one analyst contributing to the consensus earnings estimate, so the actual results will likely differ to a large degree from the estimate, causing share price volatility.</p>
<p>Well, that was dismal. The first thing you noticed is that only one of these companies—Volkswagen—is expected to see its profits grow during its current fiscal year. Only two of these companies—Honda and Nissan—are expected to see profits grow next year, but that’s just a paltry 3%-4% growth. So right away, we know that none of the major auto companies can be viewed as <em>growth stocks</em>. A true growth stock will have double-digit annual earnings growth.</p>
<p>We can estimate that the aforementioned 300,000 insured cars that were harmed by Hurricane Harvey will necessarily be replaced in the current fiscal year, and therefore won’t affect next year’s profit outlook. If GM and Ford were to sell an extra 100,000 cars each in the coming months, that could possibly move their 2017 earnings expectations toward one of a small profit increase.</p>
<p>GM sold <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/07/news/companies/gm-record-sales-profits/index.html">ten million autos in 2016</a>, so that would be just a 1% increase in its 2017 auto sales, translating to EPS rising 1% this year. Not a terribly exciting outlook, unfortunately.</p>
<p>Ford sold <a href="https://corporate.ford.com/content/dam/corporate/en/investors/investor-events/Sales%20Calls/2017/December-2016-Sales-Release-with-tables.pdf">2,614,697 autos in 2016</a><strong>. </strong>If Ford were to sell another 100,000 cars this year, that would be an approximate 3.8% boost to revenue and EPS. If we increase the current Wall Street consensus earnings estimate by 3.8%, that gives Ford approximately $1.80 in 2017 EPS, which is just a 2.6% increase over 2016 results. Again, this number is not exciting, and will not attract <a href="https://cabotwealth.com/daily/how-to-invest/three-stock-market-indicators-growth-investors/">growth investors</a> to this auto stock.</p>
<p>There are lots of <a href="https://cabotwealth.com/daily/growth-stocks/characteristics-great-growth-stocks/">great growth stocks</a> that stand to benefit from post-hurricane rebuilding, but auto stocks are not among them. Still, there could be some short-term capital gain opportunities in auto stocks for investors who want to ride the tail of bullish market sentiment.</p>
<h4>Any Auto Stocks Worth Buying?</h4>
<p><strong>Ford (F)</strong> has been trading sideways since April, with upside price resistance at 11.7. If it breaks past 11.7, it could rise to its previous high at 12.6, giving new investors a potential 11% capital gain.</p>
<p><strong>General Motors (GM)</strong> traded as high as 37.5 in the first quarter of this year, had a price correction, and just this week retraced that recent high. If the stock breaks past 38, that’s extremely bullish for immediate capital gain potential.</p>
<p><strong>Honda (HMC)</strong> has been trading sideways since April. The price chart does not indicate a readiness to rise any time soon.</p>
<p><strong>Nissan (NSANY)</strong> has significant upside price resistance at 21.5, giving new investors a maximum capital gain potential of about 7%.</p>
<p><strong>Tesla (TSLA)</strong> has about 8%-9% upside as it retraces its June high, when it peaked above 380.</p>
<p><strong>Toyota (TM)</strong> has a bullish price chart. The stock could rise to 123 in the coming months, giving new investors a potential 8% capital gain.</p>
<p><strong>Volkswagen (VLKAY)</strong> is trading in a distinct range, and could rise to about 33.6 in the near future, giving new investors a potential 6% capital gain.</p>
<p>Whether I’m buying stock for a short-term trade or a longer-term hold, I prefer to focus on stocks that are about to break out of trading ranges and reach new highs. That’s because when stocks reach new highs, every single person who owns the stock is happy! Nobody has lost money, and nobody is motivated to sell the stock and drive the share price down. Therefore, when stocks begin reaching new highs, we can potentially earn outsized capital gains in the short term. In that light, the auto stock that I would buy today is General Motors (<a href="https://cabotwealth.com/daily/dividend-stocks/buy-gm-stock/">GM</a>).</p>
<p>For additional details on stocks I recommend to my subscribers, check out the advisory I write, <a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-undervalued-stocks-advisor/?mqsc=ip"><em>Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor</em></a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-undervalued-stocks-advisor/?mqsc=ip">For more details, click here.</a></p>
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Royden Ward explains clearly how to build a portfolio of stocks that meet his strict requirements-plus every issue includes updated rankings on his "Top 275 Value Stocks," so you can check on other stocks you may own.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-benjamin-graham-value-investor/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-benjamin-graham-value-investor/?product_id=19" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-emerging-markets-investor/" title="Cabot Emerging Markets Investor" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Cabot Emerging Markets Investor</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cemnewsletter.png' /></figure><p>Cabot Emerging Markets Investor focuses on the emerging markets economies, with special attention paid to the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) investment landscape. You'll discover the value of international diversification and the profit potential of investing in countries whose economies are growing far faster than that of the U.S. All these stocks are traded on U.S. exchanges, usually as American Depositary Receipts. Under the guidance of Chief Analyst Paul Goodwin, Cabot Emerging Markets Investor was recognized as the top investment newsletter in 2006 and 2007 by Hulbert Financial Digest, and was rated by Hulbert as one of the top investment newsletters in every five-year period 2004 to 2011.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-emerging-markets-investor/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-emerging-markets-investor/?product_id=20" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-options-trader/" title="Cabot Options Trader" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Cabot Options Trader</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cotenewsletter.png' /></figure><p>Cabot Options Trader’s Chief Analyst and options expert Jacob Mintz uses calls, puts and covered calls to guide investors to quick profits while always controlling risk. 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Whenever Jacob determines the time is right, he sends specific option buy and sell alerts via email and text-message for immediate action. He also sends out a weekly update with his views on the options market, open option positions and his outlook for the coming week.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-options-trader-pro/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-options-trader-pro/?product_id=23" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-small-cap-confidential/" title="Cabot Small-Cap Confidential" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Cabot Small-Cap Confidential</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/CSCp1.png' /></figure><p>Cabot Small-Cap Confidential is a limited-circulation advisory for investors seeking profit opportunities in high-potential small company stocks. 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In the publication’s first five years, spanning 2007-2012, the average stock recommendation gained 30.5%.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-small-cap-confidential/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-small-cap-confidential/?product_id=21" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-stock-of-the-week/" title="Cabot Stock of the Week" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Cabot Stock of the Week</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/csownewsletters.png' /></figure><p>Cabot Stock of the Week offers the very best of all Cabot stocks across the investing spectrum. Each stock is personally selected by Cabot’s President and most Senior Analyst Timothy Lutts, and guided by the collective wisdom of all the Cabot expert analysts. As a subscriber of Cabot Stock of the Week, you’ll build your wealth and reduce your risk with the single best stock each week for current market conditions among growth, momentum, emerging markets, value, dividend and small-cap stocks.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-stock-of-the-week/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-stock-of-the-week/?product_id=18" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-top-ten-trader/" title="Cabot Top Ten Trader" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Cabot Top Ten Trader</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/cttnewsletter.png' /></figure><p>Designed for experienced investors, Cabot Top Ten Trader is your ticket to fast profits in stocks that are under accumulation now. Every Monday you’ll receive a one-page profile of each recommended stock, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis and buy ranges. Plus... each Friday, Chief Analyst Michael Cintolo will give you an update titled "Movers & Shakers," so you’ll always know his latest thoughts on these fast-moving stocks. 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Combining both growth and value in her growth-at-a-reasonable price strategy, Chief Analyst Crista Huff uncovers stocks with strong growth catalysts that are selling at attractive valuations—the stocks that are temporarily overlooked by mainstream analysts and institutions. Crista applies her stringent screens to deliver the best stocks in three portfolios: Growth, Growth & Income, and Buy Low Opportunities. A subscription includes monthly issues with weekly updates, special bulletins with market and stock alerts and email access to Crista.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/cabot-undervalued-stocks-advisor/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-cabot-undervalued-stocks-advisor/?product_id=83411" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li><li class="row accordion meq_products"><a class="small-12 columns small-collapse" href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/wall-streets-best-dividend-stocks/" title="Wall Street&#8217;s Best Dividend Stocks" rel="bookmark"><span class="small-10 columns">Wall Street&#8217;s Best Dividend Stocks</span><span class="small-2 columns text-right float-right"><span class="plus-minus-icon"></span></span></a><ul class="menu nested"><li class="columns small-12"><figure class="sub-widget-image show-for-medium large-5 columns resp-img-wrap"><img src='https://cabotwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/wsb-dividen-stocks-cover-1.png' /></figure><p>Wall Street’s Best Dividend Stocks presents the best income investments from the top Wall Street analysts, researchers and advisors. 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Selections run the full range of opportunities: growth stocks, value stocks, technology, small-caps, biotech, pharmaceuticals, mutual funds, ETFs and more. One Spotlight Stock is featured each month, along with Nancy’s insight on the market and updates on past recommendations. Thirty-plus recommendations are delivered to you in Daily Alerts directly to your email box, and collected in an easy to read digest each month.</p><a href="https://cabotwealth.com/subscription-offers/wall-streets-best-investments/" class="cta-button button medium expanded">Learn More</a><a href="/subscribe-to-wall-streets-best-investments/?product_id=83410" class="cta-button button medium orange expanded">Buy Now</a></li></ul></li></ul></div></div></div></div>
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<li><i class="fi-comment-quotes"></i><div class="excerpt">I have been a subscriber for many of Cabot services for almost 12 years or more. I love Cabot 10 the most and credit the advisory for learning about the new and old businesses that are worth my current investment. If something interests me, I take a small position in it and add more Shares if it turns out to be a winner. Alternately I get out of the position if It doesn’t work. Sometimes I buy those stocks for short term profits and come back to them if the stocks keep performing well. The most important part is the lessons I learn from Cabot services ,How to become a Good successful Investor in the long run. Mike and all other advisors have something unique and useful to offer. It’s up to us how we receive and perceive it. They teach us that put what you learn in to action, that get rid of the enemy in you which often gets in the way and use the basic and advanced tools they offer into your personal investment style.Turning point for me was when I realized I am a Physician and I hardly know the Stock Market and there is some one who does all the basic research and offers it to you so that you can build on it. And finally the hand holding during tough times. Thank you Cabot to make this nonfinance guy into a successful Investor and a Wealth Builder.</div><p class="byline">-Ved G.</p></li>
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<p class="p1">After a 10-day, 11% plunge for the major indexes, the market has stabilized for the time being. When looking at the evidence, we see that the longer-term trend is still up, but there’s no doubt the intermediate-term trend is down, the broad market is unhealthy and many stocks have cracked. A bounce could easily get underway at any time, but until the intermediate-term trend turns up (indexes back above their 50-day lines and some stocks acting better), you should play some defense by holding cash, cutting back on new buying and, if you own some broken stocks, using any market rebound to pare back. On the flip side, we still advise holding your resilient stocks—if they’ve held up so far, they have a good chance of doing well whenever the correction finishes up.</p><span class="block"><a href=" https://cabotwealth.com/daily/market-update-home/"><em><span>Updated</span> <span>February 12, 2018</span></em></a></span></div></div></div>
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w._crq=w._crq?w._crq:[];w._crq.push(q);n.src='//www.conversionruler.com/bin/js.php?siteid='+id;p.parentNode.insertBefore(n, p);
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(function (w) {
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	// Site 7065 CABOT
	var instrument_timeout = 10;
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	var cookiedomains = ["cabotwealth.com"];
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		'input[type=email]': 'email',
		'input[autocomplete=email]': 'email',
		'.ginput_container_email input': 'email',
		'input#user_email': 'email',
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	var registration_pages = {
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				var val = $.trim(String($(this).val()));
				if (val) {
					save_data(name, val);
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			host = String(location.hostname),
			path = String(location.pathname),
			hash = String(location.hash),
			timer = null,
			watchers = [],
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			// Instrument site
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				if (path.indexOf(match_path) === 0) {
					watchers.push(function () {
						var confirmation_selector = '.gform_confirmation_message';
						var matches = $(confirmation_selector).length;
						if (!confirmed) {
							if (matches !== 0) {
								cr.track(action, null, get_data('email'));
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							}
						} else {
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								confirmed = false;
							}
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					});
				}
			});
			// Individual tracking goes here
			// Log version number for debugging
			log("ConversionRuler snippet installed version " + version);
		});
		w.__CR_installed = true;
	};
	w._crq = w._crq || [];
	w._crq.push(instrument_site);
}(window));
</script>
<!-- ConversionRuler Script END -->


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        'quantity': '1'
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