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alt="salon icon"/><h3 class="style__title___NfUxX">Up Next</h3><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/14/rob-porter-is-no-anomaly-hes-the-perfect-symbol-of-trumpism/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">Rob Porter: Poster boy for Trumpism</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>Chauncey DeVega</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/13/the-little-known-history-of-americas-first-black-celebrity-richard-potter/"><div class="style__content___27HwE"><span data-comment="coverline begin"></span><span class="style__coverlineWhite____JX7K">America’s first black celebrity</span><span data-comment="coverline end"></span><span class="style__author___2Ia9F"><span>John Hodgson</span></span></div></a><a class="style__navigationItem___3ABQc" href="/2018/02/13/the-lonely-life-of-the-writer/"><div 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data-comment="credit end"></span></span></div></div></div><div class="style__articleBodyContent___2EFq5"><div class="style__postBodyTitleArea___21Hlg"><span data-comment="post title begin"></span><h1 class="style__title___2Rdst">What victims of Hurricane Harvey can learn from Katrina as rebuilding begins</h1><span data-comment="post title end"></span><h2 class="style__deck___2Lb47">The financial impact of Hurricane Katrina on individual lives has been little studied until now</h2><div class="style__addThisTop___2Wotf"><div class="addthis_inline_share_toolbox"></div></div><div class="style__metrics___26UhR"><div><div class="style__info___1RnIc"><span class="style__authorName___1Hdxd"><span><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="/writer/justin-gallagher">Justin Gallagher</a></span><span>, <span>The Conversation</span></span></span><span class="style__dateTime___2K_zH"><span class="style__date___3lcMr iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-09-08T07:59:49Z">2017-09-08T07:59:49Z</span><span class="style__dateSpacer___3PhQ-">•</span><span class="style__time___1B7Ka iso-date" data-dateiso="2017-09-08T07:59:49Z">2017-09-08T07:59:49Z</span></span></div><div class="style__socialComments___2xpOY"><span data-no-comments="1"></span><div class="style__social___evyKZ"></div></div></div></div><span data-comment="editorsNote begin"></span><div class="style__editorsNote___7rE5h">This piece originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/us">The Conversation</a>.</div><span data-comment="editorsNote end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-1"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-0" class="style__firstParagraph___X_T4B"><p>Floodwaters in parts of Houston are beginning to recede after nearly a week of rain from Hurricane Harvey. The emphasis for many flood victims will now shift from survival to recovery.</p></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div data-node="node-2" class=""><p>While many economists are trying to determine the disaster’s overall toll — <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harvey-economic-toll-20170901-story.html">certain to be significant</a> — a topic less explored is the financial impact on Harvey’s victims.</p></div><div data-node="node-4" class=""><p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">recent research</a> I co-authored with <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/people/h/hartley-daniel">economist Daniel Hartley</a>, we provide some of the first victim-level evidence of the financial impact of a costly flood. Specifically, we examined financial data for victims of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.</p></div><div data-node="node-6" class=""><p><strong>Flooding’s toll</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-8" class=""><p>Since Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston on August 25, rain totals <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/?utm_term=.d6ea4ce931db">have topped 50 inches</a> in some locations.</p></div><div data-node="node-10" class=""><p>The result has been untold human suffering. At least <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harvey-Aftermath-Houston-police-officer-dies-19-12159139.php">60 lives</a> have been lost, and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-texas-harvey-20170901-story.html">tens of thousands</a> had to evacuate their homes. Property damage may surpass that of Katrina, which up until now has been the most costly hurricane to hit the U.S., with an estimated price tag of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">US$108 billion</a>.</p></div><div data-node="node-12" class=""><p>That storm flooded <a href="http://www.tulane.edu/%7Esanelson/New_Orleans_and_Hurricanes/overviewofleveefailures.pdf">about 85 percent</a> of New Orleans, killed at least <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">1,833 people</a> and displaced an estimated <a href="http://projects.ce.berkeley.edu/neworleans/">450,000</a> residents.</p></div><div data-node="node-14" class=""><p>Katrina is only one of dozens of <a href="http://create.usc.edu/sites/default/files/publications/policytenureundertheu.s.nationalfloodinsuranceprogramnf_0.pdf">devastating hurricanes</a> that have wrought destruction along the southeast and eastern coasts of the United States in recent decades. Yet despite the frequency of such disasters, little has been known until recently about the financial toll on flood victims.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-2"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__sponsoredStoriesMainSmall___1oW0H" data-obwidget-id="AR_8"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-3"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_1 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-4"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-16" class=""><p><strong>Studying the financial impact</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-18" class=""><p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">our study</a>, we measured the financial impact from Katrina using <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr479.html">credit agency data</a> on a random sample of U.S. residents. We zeroed in on 16,000 people living in New Orleans at the time of Katrina and tracked their credit histories three years before and after the storm.</p></div><div data-node="node-20" class=""><p>The information is quarterly and includes all reported debts, including home loans, credit cards and student loans. Debt is a good proxy for financial impact because a change in borrowing is often how people manage an unexpected shock, such as a disaster.</p></div><div data-node="node-22" class=""><p>Although the data are anonymized, their approximate location was included in the data based on the “<a href="http://proximityone.com/geo_blocks.htm">census block</a>” of residence, which in New Orleans is a couple of city blocks in size on average.</p></div><div data-node="node-24" class=""><p>We divided residents in our sample into a nonflooded group and four flooded groups based on the <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2503.htm">depth of water</a> in their block, which ranged from less than a foot for the least-flooded to about eight for the most.</p></div><div data-node="node-26" class=""><p>The data showed that prior to Katrina, total debt levels for nonflooded, least-flooded and most-flooded residents were on a similar upward trajectory. The overall level of debt was highest for residents in the nonflooded group, while that of residents in the other two groups were nearly identical.</p></div><div data-node="node-28" class=""><p>What we found was that average debt for those who experienced the most flooding plunged within a few months of Katrina, falling about 25 percent. Meanwhile those who had the least flooding saw their debt briefly level off. Debt of those who didn’t encounter any flooding, on the other hand, continued to rise unabated.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-5"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="carambola style__default_hidden___35ppK style__visible_at_desktop___2NxE7 "><span data-comment="carambola begin"></span><span data-comment="carambola end"></span></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-6"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-7"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-30" class=""><p>Beginning about a year after Katrina, the rate of debt accumulation for all three groups returned to the pre-storm trend.</p></div><div data-node="node-32" class=""><p><iframe id="Ffivw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border:none" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ffivw/2/" width="620" height="349" frameBorder="0"></iframe></p></div><div data-node="node-34" class=""><p><strong>Breaking down the debts</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-36" class=""><p>Breaking down the data into specific types of borrowing, we found that it was primarily a sharp drop in home loan debt that accounted for the overall change.</p></div><div data-node="node-38" class=""><p>After controlling for several socioeconomic and demographic factors and pre-Katrina flood risk, we saw that home debt decreased by about $12,000 for the most-flooded residents relative to those who experienced none.</p></div><div data-node="node-40" class=""><p>The credit agency data indicated that apart from this reduction, flooding from Katrina had a modest and relatively short-lived negative impact on the personal finances of the most-flooded residents.</p></div><div data-node="node-42" class=""><p>Their average credit card debt temporarily increased about $500 (15 percent) but was paid back within a year, while auto and student loan debt didn’t change at all. Ninety-day bill delinquency rates rose about 10 percent for a quarter, and credit scores declined about 1 percent for two years.</p></div><div data-node="node-44" class=""><p>The relatively modest and short-lived financial impact of Katrina on its victims is supported by another <a href="http://deryugina.com/2017-05-11-hurricane_katrina_draft.pdf">recent study</a> based on tax return data. It found that within a few years of the storm, the income of flood victims was higher than that of filers living outside of New Orleans with similar pre-Katrina financial histories.</p></div><div data-node="node-46" class=""><p>An important caveat to both studies is that neither includes information on subpopulations that may be most vulnerable to natural disasters, such as those without a credit history or who don’t file federal income taxes. Residents in both groups were more likely to be unemployed before the flood and have fewer financial resources.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-8"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div data-tout-mid-article-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___27f_5"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-9"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_2 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-10"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-48" class=""><p><strong>Role of flood insurance</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-50" class=""><p>Homeowner decisions to use flood insurance to pay down home loan debt accounts for most of the reduction. Around 25 percent of victims with a home loan in the most-flooded group paid it off within six months of Katrina.</p></div><div data-node="node-52" class=""><p>Using flood insurance to pay off a home loan made financial sense for some. About <a href="http://levees.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/After-Katrina-Pundits-Criticized-New-Orleans.pdf">two-thirds</a> of homeowners in New Orleans had such insurance.</p></div><div data-node="node-54" class=""><p>Assuming a home is fully insured, a flood insurance check would cover the cost to rebuild it. But in many neighborhoods of New Orleans prior to Katrina, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.22.4.135">reconstruction costs</a> of homes exceeded their worth, in which case it made sense to purchase a similar home elsewhere at a lower cost rather than rebuild. When this occurred, any existing mortgage debt had to be paid off first.</p></div><div data-node="node-56" class=""><p>Some homeowners, however, appear to have made this decision to pay off mortgage debt due to pressure from lenders, which is both <a href="http://www.uphelp.org/sites/default/files/disaster/katrina_articles/katrina_mortgage.html">illegal</a> and probably a poor financial decision. We found evidence consistent with <a href="http://thelensnola.org/2011/12/23/kisa-holmes-six-years-later/">accounts</a> that lenders, particularly national banks without a strong local presence, pressured some homeowners to pay off mortgages using flood insurance money.</p></div><div data-node="node-58" class=""><p><strong>What it means for Harvey victims</strong></p></div><div data-node="node-60" class=""><p>So what does the experience of Katrina’s victims mean for the financial recovery of those flooded by Harvey?</p></div><div data-node="node-62" class=""><p>First, the collective safety net provided by flood insurance, government assistance, nonprofit aid and personal savings encouraged a relatively quick financial recovery — as measured by debt levels, indicators of financial distress and income — for even the worst-hit victims of Katrina.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-11"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-12"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-13"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-64" class=""><p>Flood insurance played a particularly important role. <a href="http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/flood-insurance">More than $16 billion in flood insurance was paid out</a>, or $97,141 per claim. By comparison, direct federal assistance to victims for rebuilding was capped at <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-844T">$15,700</a>. Other assistance approved by Congress didn’t arrive until <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-road-home-opens-10-housing-assistance-centers-statewide-louisiana-housing-recovery-program-underway-56216082.html">over a year</a> later.</p></div><div data-node="node-66" class=""><p>That won’t be of much comfort to the residents of Houston, however, where flood insurance coverage rates <a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_insurance_in_houston_plu.html">have dropped 9 percent</a> in the past five years. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/?utm_term=.33ef4b65bb6b">Only 17 percent of homeowners</a> in the counties most affected by Harvey have policies.</p></div><div data-node="node-68" class=""><p>In order for Harvey victims to recovery financially at a pace similar to Katrina’s, per-person direct government assistance will likely need to be larger. President Trump <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Houston-heads-into-weekend-post-Harvey-Trump-12168379.php">has reportedly requested</a> $7.9 billion so far.</p></div><div data-node="node-70" class=""><p>Second, the Houston metro area <a href="http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2016/03/24/142556/census-numbers-are-out-greater-houston-area-has-largest-population-gain/">has experienced</a> significant population growth and increasing property values. Flooded homeowners who have insurance are likely to be better off financially if they use their checks to rebuild rather than paying off home loans and walking away. Houston residents should be wary of banks that suggest otherwise.</p></div><div data-node="node-72" class=""><p><strong>Value of flood insurance<br/>
</strong><br/>
We know that there will be devastating future floods in Houston and elsewhere, and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf">climate change</a> is expected to increase their frequency.</p></div><div data-node="node-74" class=""><p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a> was created in 1968 to help protect Americans against the risk of flooding without requiring extensive taxpayer-financed federal disaster aid. But insufficient insurance coverage, like in Houston, drastically limits its effectiveness.</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__inContentAdMain___1xJjm"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:320px;height:50px"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-14"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"></div></div></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-15"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div class="style__nativoArticleMobile___25sTS"><div class="nativoArticlePage_3 style__nativoArticleMain___39AJp"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-tout-player-disabled="1" class="style__hidden___3BAqz"></div><div class="style__postSection___vysmH"><div id="postSection-16"><div class="style__postBody___3bU3q"><div><div data-node="node-76" class=""><p>If we want to avoid generous disaster bailouts in the future, policy changes to the program are necessary: for example, by ensuring more people who choose to live in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z">areas at greatest risk</a> of flooding <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage">are compelled</a> to buy insurance.</p></div><div data-node="node-78" class=""><p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83184/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"/><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001">Strengthening</a> the insurance program is one way to help ensure residents of Houston and other coastal cities are prepared for the many floods to come.</p></div><div data-node="node-80" class=""><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-gallagher-404160">Justin Gallagher</a>, Assistant Professor of Economics, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/case-western-reserve-university-1506">Case Western Reserve University</a></em></p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="style__rightRailMain___2SoC6"><div class="ad-unit style__adHighlight___1sFUC"><div style="width:300px;height:600px"></div></div><div class="style__rightRailMeasuredPartMain___1O5oi"></div></div><div class="style__paginationContainer___OH6py"></div><div class="style__returnHomeContainer___1JOWZ"><a class="style__button___N4bTp" href="/">Return To Home Page</a></div><div class="style__associatedTopicsBackground___3u3kz"><div class="style__associatedTopicsWrapper___2l-_A"><div class="style__associatedTopics___1ejar"><div>MORE IN</div><div><div class="style__topicLink___2lFN-"><span data-comment="topic name begin"></span><a href="/topic/hurricane-harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a><span data-comment="topic name end"></span></div><div class="style__topicLink___2lFN-"><span data-comment="topic name begin"></span><a href="/topic/hurricane_katrina">Hurricane Katrina</a><span data-comment="topic name end"></span></div><div 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The emphasis for many flood victims will now shift from survival to recovery.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile many economists are trying to determine the disaster’s overall toll — \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harvey-economic-toll-20170901-story.html\"\u003ecertain to be significant\u003c/a\u003e — a topic less explored is the financial impact on Harvey’s victims.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ca href=\"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273\"\u003erecent research\u003c/a\u003e I co-authored with \u003ca href=\"https://www.chicagofed.org/people/h/hartley-daniel\"\u003eeconomist Daniel Hartley\u003c/a\u003e, we provide some of the first victim-level evidence of the financial impact of a costly flood. Specifically, we examined financial data for victims of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFlooding’s toll\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSince Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston on August 25, rain totals \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/?utm_term=.d6ea4ce931db\"\u003ehave topped 50 inches\u003c/a\u003e in some locations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe result has been untold human suffering. At least \u003ca href=\"http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harvey-Aftermath-Houston-police-officer-dies-19-12159139.php\"\u003e60 lives\u003c/a\u003e have been lost, and \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-texas-harvey-20170901-story.html\"\u003etens of thousands\u003c/a\u003e had to evacuate their homes. Property damage may surpass that of Katrina, which up until now has been the most costly hurricane to hit the U.S., with an estimated price tag of \u003ca href=\"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf\"\u003eUS$108 billion\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat storm flooded \u003ca href=\"http://www.tulane.edu/%7Esanelson/New_Orleans_and_Hurricanes/overviewofleveefailures.pdf\"\u003eabout 85 percent\u003c/a\u003e of New Orleans, killed at least \u003ca href=\"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf\"\u003e1,833 people\u003c/a\u003e and displaced an estimated \u003ca href=\"http://projects.ce.berkeley.edu/neworleans/\"\u003e450,000\u003c/a\u003e residents.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKatrina is only one of dozens of \u003ca href=\"http://create.usc.edu/sites/default/files/publications/policytenureundertheu.s.nationalfloodinsuranceprogramnf_0.pdf\"\u003edevastating hurricanes\u003c/a\u003e that have wrought destruction along the southeast and eastern coasts of the United States in recent decades. Yet despite the frequency of such disasters, little has been known until recently about the financial toll on flood victims.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStudying the financial impact\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ca href=\"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273\"\u003eour study\u003c/a\u003e, we measured the financial impact from Katrina using \u003ca href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr479.html\"\u003ecredit agency data\u003c/a\u003e on a random sample of U.S. residents. We zeroed in on 16,000 people living in New Orleans at the time of Katrina and tracked their credit histories three years before and after the storm.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe information is quarterly and includes all reported debts, including home loans, credit cards and student loans. Debt is a good proxy for financial impact because a change in borrowing is often how people manage an unexpected shock, such as a disaster.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough the data are anonymized, their approximate location was included in the data based on the “\u003ca href=\"http://proximityone.com/geo_blocks.htm\"\u003ecensus block\u003c/a\u003e” of residence, which in New Orleans is a couple of city blocks in size on average.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe divided residents in our sample into a nonflooded group and four flooded groups based on the \u003ca href=\"http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2503.htm\"\u003edepth of water\u003c/a\u003e in their block, which ranged from less than a foot for the least-flooded to about eight for the most.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe data showed that prior to Katrina, total debt levels for nonflooded, least-flooded and most-flooded residents were on a similar upward trajectory. The overall level of debt was highest for residents in the nonflooded group, while that of residents in the other two groups were nearly identical.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat we found was that average debt for those who experienced the most flooding plunged within a few months of Katrina, falling about 25 percent. Meanwhile those who had the least flooding saw their debt briefly level off. Debt of those who didn’t encounter any flooding, on the other hand, continued to rise unabated.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBeginning about a year after Katrina, the rate of debt accumulation for all three groups returned to the pre-storm trend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ciframe id=\"Ffivw\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ffivw/2/\" width=\"620\" height=\"349\" frameborder=\"0\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBreaking down the debts\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBreaking down the data into specific types of borrowing, we found that it was primarily a sharp drop in home loan debt that accounted for the overall change.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter controlling for several socioeconomic and demographic factors and pre-Katrina flood risk, we saw that home debt decreased by about $12,000 for the most-flooded residents relative to those who experienced none.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe credit agency data indicated that apart from this reduction, flooding from Katrina had a modest and relatively short-lived negative impact on the personal finances of the most-flooded residents.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTheir average credit card debt temporarily increased about $500 (15 percent) but was paid back within a year, while auto and student loan debt didn’t change at all. Ninety-day bill delinquency rates rose about 10 percent for a quarter, and credit scores declined about 1 percent for two years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe relatively modest and short-lived financial impact of Katrina on its victims is supported by another \u003ca href=\"http://deryugina.com/2017-05-11-hurricane_katrina_draft.pdf\"\u003erecent study\u003c/a\u003e based on tax return data. It found that within a few years of the storm, the income of flood victims was higher than that of filers living outside of New Orleans with similar pre-Katrina financial histories.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn important caveat to both studies is that neither includes information on subpopulations that may be most vulnerable to natural disasters, such as those without a credit history or who don’t file federal income taxes. Residents in both groups were more likely to be unemployed before the flood and have fewer financial resources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRole of flood insurance\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHomeowner decisions to use flood insurance to pay down home loan debt accounts for most of the reduction. Around 25 percent of victims with a home loan in the most-flooded group paid it off within six months of Katrina.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUsing flood insurance to pay off a home loan made financial sense for some. About \u003ca href=\"http://levees.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/After-Katrina-Pundits-Criticized-New-Orleans.pdf\"\u003etwo-thirds\u003c/a\u003e of homeowners in New Orleans had such insurance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAssuming a home is fully insured, a flood insurance check would cover the cost to rebuild it. But in many neighborhoods of New Orleans prior to Katrina, \u003ca href=\"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.22.4.135\"\u003ereconstruction costs\u003c/a\u003e of homes exceeded their worth, in which case it made sense to purchase a similar home elsewhere at a lower cost rather than rebuild. When this occurred, any existing mortgage debt had to be paid off first.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSome homeowners, however, appear to have made this decision to pay off mortgage debt due to pressure from lenders, which is both \u003ca href=\"http://www.uphelp.org/sites/default/files/disaster/katrina_articles/katrina_mortgage.html\"\u003eillegal\u003c/a\u003e and probably a poor financial decision. We found evidence consistent with \u003ca href=\"http://thelensnola.org/2011/12/23/kisa-holmes-six-years-later/\"\u003eaccounts\u003c/a\u003e that lenders, particularly national banks without a strong local presence, pressured some homeowners to pay off mortgages using flood insurance money.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWhat it means for Harvey victims\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo what does the experience of Katrina’s victims mean for the financial recovery of those flooded by Harvey?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirst, the collective safety net provided by flood insurance, government assistance, nonprofit aid and personal savings encouraged a relatively quick financial recovery — as measured by debt levels, indicators of financial distress and income — for even the worst-hit victims of Katrina.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFlood insurance played a particularly important role. \u003ca href=\"http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/flood-insurance\"\u003eMore than $16 billion in flood insurance was paid out\u003c/a\u003e, or $97,141 per claim. By comparison, direct federal assistance to victims for rebuilding was capped at \u003ca href=\"http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-844T\"\u003e$15,700\u003c/a\u003e. Other assistance approved by Congress didn’t arrive until \u003ca href=\"http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-road-home-opens-10-housing-assistance-centers-statewide-louisiana-housing-recovery-program-underway-56216082.html\"\u003eover a year\u003c/a\u003e later.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat won’t be of much comfort to the residents of Houston, however, where flood insurance coverage rates \u003ca href=\"http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_insurance_in_houston_plu.html\"\u003ehave dropped 9 percent\u003c/a\u003e in the past five years. \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/?utm_term=.33ef4b65bb6b\"\u003eOnly 17 percent of homeowners\u003c/a\u003e in the counties most affected by Harvey have policies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn order for Harvey victims to recovery financially at a pace similar to Katrina’s, per-person direct government assistance will likely need to be larger. President Trump \u003ca href=\"http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Houston-heads-into-weekend-post-Harvey-Trump-12168379.php\"\u003ehas reportedly requested\u003c/a\u003e $7.9 billion so far.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSecond, the Houston metro area \u003ca href=\"http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2016/03/24/142556/census-numbers-are-out-greater-houston-area-has-largest-population-gain/\"\u003ehas experienced\u003c/a\u003e significant population growth and increasing property values. Flooded homeowners who have insurance are likely to be better off financially if they use their checks to rebuild rather than paying off home loans and walking away. Houston residents should be wary of banks that suggest otherwise.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eValue of flood insurance\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cbr /\u003e\nWe know that there will be devastating future floods in Houston and elsewhere, and \u003ca href=\"https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf\"\u003eclimate change\u003c/a\u003e is expected to increase their frequency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe \u003ca href=\"https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program\"\u003eNational Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a\u003e was created in 1968 to help protect Americans against the risk of flooding without requiring extensive taxpayer-financed federal disaster aid. But insufficient insurance coverage, like in Houston, drastically limits its effectiveness.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf we want to avoid generous disaster bailouts in the future, policy changes to the program are necessary: for example, by ensuring more people who choose to live in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z\"\u003eareas at greatest risk\u003c/a\u003e of flooding \u003ca href=\"https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage\"\u003eare compelled\u003c/a\u003e to buy insurance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83184/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" /\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001\"\u003eStrengthening\u003c/a\u003e the insurance program is one way to help ensure residents of Houston and other coastal cities are prepared for the many floods to come.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-gallagher-404160\"\u003eJustin Gallagher\u003c/a\u003e, Assistant Professor of Economics, \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://theconversation.com/institutions/case-western-reserve-university-1506\"\u003eCase Western Reserve University\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n","editorsNote":"This piece originally appeared on \u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/us\"\u003eThe Conversation\u003c/a\u003e.","pullQuote":"","socialMetas":{"twitter:title":"What victims of Hurricane Harvey can learn from Katrina","twitter:description":"The financial impact of Hurricane Katrina on individual lives has been little studied until now","twitter:image":"https://media.salon.com/2015/09/hurricane_katrina2-580x385.jpg","twitter:site":"@Salon","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:creator":"@Salon","og:title":"What victims of Hurricane Harvey can learn from 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