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                        <h1 class="title">Predicting Hurricane Harvey: What the data tells us about Houston’s risk probability (and resilience to natural disaster)</h1>
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        <p><strong>Seeing the devastation left behind in Houston by the hurricane Harvey, we wonder why this happened or whether it could have been avoided. Let's dig into Houston's risk probability and resilience to natural disaster data to find some answers.</strong></p><div class="field field-name-field-blogimage field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="https://plsadaptive.s3.amazonaws.com/site/images/blog/powerful-photos-hurricane-harvey-texas-51-59a50ed3299c4_700.jpg?Q5066jPpQGNn9EHyvwN_TuXOzyc7Oj6_" width="700" height="467" alt="" /></div></div></div>
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            <p>Posted by Emma Beaumont 2 on 6th Sep, 2017</p>        </div>

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        <div class="field field-name-field-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Like most, I watched with horror last week as newsfeeds filled with pictures of the devastation left behind in the wake of the latest global disaster to hit headlines and engage hearts. Despite the graphic nature of the news footage, as onlookers, none of us can begin to imagine the actual extent of personal consequence being endured right now by affected Houstonians. </p><p>Humanity kicks in instinctively. We all feel immense empathy and helplessness, then soon after the inevitable questions are asked as people search for some sense of reason and logic (or even culpability) in the aftermath. “Why did this happen? Could it have been avoided?” are obvious and valid starting points for discussion. We live in a world today where control and safety are expected norms for society. All of us plan endlessly to protect ourselves from every possible negative outcome in life, when of course the reality is that planet Earth will continue to behave in ways that we cannot always foresee (the Force Majeure clause would not exist were this not the case). </p><p>But then comes the data… The mathematical, statistical armoury we equip ourselves with to try and out-think Mother Nature and stay two steps ahead of the future. I’ve read numerous articles and posts this weekend that state Houston was a “sitting duck”, and reports that scientists had issued multiple warnings of flooding disaster based on their calculations. And maybe these observations are perfectly rational responses we should all listen to (they are certainly more relevant and important to our thinking, I would argue, than sickening spin doctor headlines about the potential impact Harvey has on Trump’s “border wall budget”).</p><p>Yesterday, in an attempt to understand the facts better, I asked SSON’s Chief Data Scientist, Murphy Choy, to have a cup of tea with me and talk me through the risk numbers we have on Houston in <a href="https://www.sson-analytics.com/data-tool/city-cube" target="_blank">SSON Analytics’ City Cube</a>. More specifically, what do we know about the levels of risk associated with the fourth most popular shared services city in the U.S* and why? (based upon historical disaster data and current infrastructure). </p><p>Having built risk probability and resilience indices for over 1400 cities and worked closely with the NASA Shared Services team on our co-authored risk report (<a href="https://www.sson-analytics.com/analytics-workbook/evaluating-us-natural-disaster-risk-probability-resilience-recovery-time" target="_blank">Evaluating US Natural Disaster Risk for SSCs</a>), Murphy is frankly one of the most qualified people I know to answer these questions (and luckily for me sits 5 metres away from my desk). Here’s what I learned over my Earl Grey:</p><p><strong>Houston’s Risk Probability for Hurricane and Flooding</strong></p><ul><li>Texas has been hit by 1-3 hurricanes every year for the last 25 years. Each year Houston was affected by the heavy rainfall (barring 2001, 2007 and 2008 where it received a direct hurricane hit).</li><li>Crucially, all Texan hurricanes in this period (prior to Harvey) scored lower than category 4, making the power and scale of Harvey similar to Katrina, which was even more devastating as a category 5 storm. </li><li>This historical disaster data generates a far lower “Hurricane Risk” score for Houston on the Risk Probability Index™ than people may expect, scoring only 2 out of a possible 5 (with 5 being the highest risk). </li><li>The rarity of category 4 or 5 Texan hurricanes is due to the physical locality of the state. Being tucked inside the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean islands and Mexico most frequently bear the brunt of severe windstorms heading towards Texas (lessening the impact before landfall).</li><li>Houston does however score the maximum of 5 for Flood Risk probability. Multiple reasons: For starters it’s just 50m above sea-level (it was formerly swamp land). High levels of heavy rainfall combined with it being one of flattest of Metropolitan areas in the US, results in chronic drainage problems.  Infrastructure also plays a vital role in risk assessment here (cities are penalised for the number of residential units/areas they have. The more concrete they have the more vulnerable they become). </li></ul><p><a href="https://www.sson-analytics.com/data-tool/city-cube" target="_blank"><img class="media-element file-default panopoly-image-original" src="https://plsadaptive.s3.amazonaws.com/site/styles/panopoly_image_original/s3/sites/all/default/files/images/blog/sson_anslytics_blog_city_cube.png?rKn4dGZTV.3915AdcujtwQXHU9Vqw365&amp;itok=Tin3pSeb" alt="" /></a></p><p><strong>Houston’s Risk Resilience Rating</strong> </p><ul><li>Based on SSON Analytics’ calculations in our proprietary Risk Resilience Index™, we estimate a recovery period for Houston should theoretically be 2-3 years before they are operating at pre-Harvey economic levels of activity (based on an estimated level of damage as yet unconfirmed). </li><li>Most services should be back up and running within 180 days (assuming no nuclear plant complications).</li><li>Comparably, New Orleans’ recovery from Katrina took 11-12 years. However Houston has twice the number of infrastructure resources to support the rebound period than New Orleans had (including but not limited to number of emergency services, hospitals, police, fire, infrastructure age, road network density, etc).</li><li>Levels of aid also seriously impact the rate of post-disaster recovery. If Houston aid increases it will further accelerate the recovery rate. (Dig deeper please, Mr Trump – $1m is arguably couch change for you).</li></ul><p>In short, what I learned is that there are many different measures that could and should be taken into account to assess a location’s risk probability, vulnerability and resilience to natural disaster. In the case of Houston, whilst some data points may well point to it being “sitting duck”, there are arguably other (bigger) sitting ducks sitting in that same Gulf basin that pose an even greater potential risk – most notably in Florida and Louisiana (e.g. Cape Coral and Jacksonville both appear to score high for overall risk and low for resilience). </p><p>As I write this, warnings are being issued for the growing threat of Hurricane Irma and residents are being urged to prepare. I’m gravely reminded that it’s all too easy for myself (and others) to speculate on what the data may or may not predict when we sit here in the relative “safety”. God speed to all those who reside in Irma’s current pathway. We pray that this next storm passes without causing harm. </p><p>*There are 42 Houston Shared Service Centres are currently identified inside the <a href="https://www.sson-analytics.com/data-tool/atlas" target="_blank">SSC Atlas</a>)</p></div></div></div><p><strong>Tags:</strong></p><div class="blog-tags"><a href="/taxonomy/term/130"><i class="fa fa-tag"></i> Hurricane Harvey</a><a href="/taxonomy/term/131"><i class="fa fa-tag"></i> Houston</a><a href="/taxonomy/term/132"><i class="fa fa-tag"></i> natural disaster risk</a></div><div class="bookmark-bottom"></div><ul class="flippy">
          
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            <h4>February 2018</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/2018-global-survey-report-trends-shared-services-and-outsourcing-market">2018 Global Survey Report: Trends in Shared Services and Outsourcing Market</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>January 2018</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/powering-women-work">Powering Women at Work</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/it-relevant-keep-discussing-millennials-if-they-are-novelty">Is it Relevant to Keep Discussing Millennials as if They are a Novelty?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/if-you-want-build-longevity-your-shared-services-organisation-team-%E2%80%93%C2%A0perhaps-set-north">If You Want to Build Up Longevity in Your Shared Services Organisation Team – Perhaps Set Up in North America?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/optimising-data-analytics-provide-increasing-value-added-services">Optimising data analytics to provide increasing value-added services</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/bpos-leading-intelligent-automation-implementations-asia">BPOs Leading Intelligent Automation Implementations in Asia</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>December 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/why-experts-think-blockchain-will-be-bigger-robotics-shared-services-industry">Why experts think Blockchain will be bigger than Robotics for the Shared Services industry</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>November 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/finance-prepared-opportunities-presented-intelligent-automation-maybe-not-and-here%E2%80%99s-why">Is Finance prepared for the opportunities presented by intelligent automation? Maybe not and here’s why.</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/can-any-us-really-afford-not-be-part-chinas-continued-mega-growth">Can any of us really afford not to be part of China&#039;s continued mega-growth?</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>October 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/does-benchmarking-really-help-answer-might-surprise-you-%E2%80%93-unless-you-are-already">Does Benchmarking really help? [the answer might surprise you – unless you are already accounting for sample bias!]</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/why-shared-services-organisations-should-benchmark-entire-market-and-not-just-most">Why Shared Services Organisations should benchmark with the entire market (and not JUST the most successful companies)</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/dubai-mena%E2%80%99s-most-expensive-shared-services-location-takes-lead-regional-growth">Dubai: MENA’s Most Expensive Shared Services Location Takes the Lead in Regional Growth</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/life-edge-pacific-ring-fire-risk-and-resilience-data-its-504-hotspot-shared-service">Life on the edge (of the Pacific Ring of Fire): Risk and Resilience data for its 504 hotspot Shared Service Centres</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>September 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/automation-offers-philippines%E2%80%99-shared-services-industry-tools-stay-ahead-its-competition">Automation Offers the Philippines’ Shared Services Industry the Tools to Stay Ahead of its Competition</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/happy-40th-birthday-first-generation-y%E2%80%A6">Happy 40th Birthday to the first of Generation Y…</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/intelligent-automation-real-picture-ground">Intelligent Automation: The real picture on the ground</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/intelligent-automation-advancing-organizational-performance">Intelligent Automation is Advancing Organizational Performance</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/should-more-shared-services-organisations-adopt-global-business-services-gbs-model">Should more shared services organisations adopt the global business services (GBS) model?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/predicting-hurricane-harvey-what-data-tells-us-about-houston%E2%80%99s-risk-probability-and" class="active">Predicting Hurricane Harvey: What the data tells us about Houston’s risk probability (and resilience to natural disaster)</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>August 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/will-brexit-impact-uk%E2%80%99s-shared-services-industry">Will Brexit impact the UK’s shared services industry?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/limits-mankind-26-years-and-we%E2%80%99re-now-running-028-seconds-faster%E2%80%A6">Limits of mankind: 26 years on and we’re now running 0.28 seconds faster…</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>May 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/video-shared-services-outsourcing-insights-learn-more">[VIDEO] Shared Services &amp; Outsourcing Insights - Learn More!</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>April 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/village-100-shared-services-centres-video">The Village of 100 Shared Services Centres [VIDEO]</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>February 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/delve-intelligent-automation-universe">Delve into the Intelligent Automation Universe</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>January 2017</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/global-shared-services-job-market-trends-who-hiring-and-where">Global Shared Services Job Market Trends: Who is Hiring and Where?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/sson-analytics-2016-year-review">SSON Analytics 2016 Year in Review</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>December 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/evaluating-risk-asia-pacific-shared-services-hotspots">Evaluating Risk in Asia Pacific Shared Services Hotspots</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/top-20-most-admired-shared-services-organisations-worldwide-2017">The top 20 most admired shared services organisations worldwide in 2017</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/where-are-most-shared-services-jobs-being-advertised-europe">Where Are Most Shared Services Jobs Being Advertised in Europe?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/natural-disaster-risk-analysis-us-shared-services-hotspots">Natural Disaster Risk Analysis of U.S. Shared Services Hotspots</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/why-vodafone-posting-so-many-shared-services-and-outsourcing-jobs-apac">Why is Vodafone posting so many shared services and outsourcing jobs in APAC?</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>November 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-shared-services-talent-analysis-malaysia-and-philippines">Infographic - Shared Services Talent Analysis of Malaysia and the Philippines</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/mirror-mirror-wall-where-do-ssc-opportunities-fall">Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Where Do SSC Opportunities Fall?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/what-do-number-job-ads-tell-you-about-local-shared-services-market">What Do the Number of Job Ads Tell You About the Local Shared Services Market?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/asean-still-drawing-key-shared-services-organisations-%E2%80%93-efficiencies-vary">ASEAN Still Drawing Key Shared Services Organisations – But Efficiencies Vary</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>October 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/are-dach-based-enterprises-ready-step-outside-their-comfort-zone">Are DACH-based Enterprises Ready to Step Outside their Comfort Zone?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/where-is-your-next-shared-services-center">Where is Your Next Shared Services Centre?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/5-trends-defining-shared-services-china">5 Trends Defining Shared Services in China</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-down-under-queensland-poised-be-australia-and-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-analytics-hub">Shared Services Down Under: Queensland Poised to be Australia and New Zealand’s Analytics Hub</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>September 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-canada-significant-growth-country-work">Shared Services in Canada: Significant Growth in In-Country Work</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/top-25-highest-paying-companies-us">Top 25 Highest Paying Companies in the U.S.</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/nordics-centers-migrating-south">Nordics Centers Migrating South</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/malaysia-its-strength-language">Malaysia: Its Strength is Language</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/benchmark-your-shared-services-salary">Benchmark your shared services salary</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-locations-vs-costs-comparison-four-key-countries">Shared services locations vs. costs: Comparison of four key countries</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>August 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/latin-america-focused-sscs-overtaking-multi-geos">Latin America-focused SSCs Overtaking Multi-Geos</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-automation-within-shared-services">Infographic - Automation within Shared Services</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-china-no-sleeping-dragon">Shared Services in China: No Sleeping Dragon</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-asean-taxes-and-talent-present-opportunity">Shared Services in ASEAN: Taxes and Talent Present Opportunity</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/iberia-%E2%80%93-europes-widening-nearshore-options">Iberia – Europe&#039;s Widening Nearshore Options</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-what-uk-ireland-shared-services-industry-looks">Infographic - What the UK &amp; Ireland shared services industry looks like</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>July 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/philippines%E2%80%99-shared-services-growth-led-captive-sscs">The Philippines’ Shared Services Growth Led by Captive SSCs</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-latin-american-shared-services-landscape">Infographic - The Latin American Shared Services Landscape</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>June 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/data-insights-global-report-2016-state-shared-services-outsourcing-industry">Data Insights from Global Report 2016: State of the Shared Services &amp; Outsourcing Industry</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/5-ways-youll-change-your-mind-robotics-process-automation-rpa">5 Ways You&#039;ll Change Your Mind: Robotics Process Automation (RPA)</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-robotic-process-automation-shared-services">Infographic - Robotic Process Automation in Shared Services</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>May 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/infographic-sscs-bpos-philippines">Infographic - SSCs &amp; BPOs in the Philippines</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/uk-and-ireland-%E2%80%93-still-key-location-shared-services">The UK and Ireland – Still a Key Location for Shared Services</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/where-establish-your-global-process-ownership-outpost">Where to Establish Your Global Process Ownership Outpost</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>April 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/20-strategic-game-changers-shared-services-outsourcing-industry">20 Strategic Game Changers in the Shared Services &amp; Outsourcing Industry [VIDEO]</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/22-world-events-shaped-shared-services-and-outsourcing-industry-video">22 World Events that Shaped the Shared Services and Outsourcing Industry [VIDEO]</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/shared-services-outsourcing-revolution">The Shared Services &amp; Outsourcing Revolution [VIDEO]</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/crunching-numbers-5-things-you-need-know-about-us-shared-services-landscape">Crunching the numbers: 5 things you need to know about the US Shared Services landscape</a>  </li>
      </ul>      <h4>March 2016</h4>
    <ul>          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/8-key-skills-shared-services-superhero">8 Key Skills of a Shared Services Superhero</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/where-are-you-shared-services-maturity-roadmap">Where are YOU on the Shared Services Maturity Roadmap?</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/neglected-link-shared-services-automation-people-element">The Neglected Link in Shared Services Automation: The People Element</a>  </li>
          <li class="">  
          <a href="/blog-entry/5-reasons-rpa-should-be-your-agenda">5 Reasons RPA Should be on Your Agenda</a>  </li>
      </ul>    </div>
  
  
  
  
  
  
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    <div class="field field-name-field-basic-text-text field-type-text-long field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>For media enquiries relating to SSON Analytics or any of our data, please contact Sian Jenkins.</p><p><strong>Email:</strong> <a href="mailto:info@dart-institute.com">info@dart-institute.com</a></p><p><strong>Tel:</strong> +65 6722 9361</p></div></div></div></div>
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    <span class='tagclouds-term'><a href="/apac" class="tagclouds level2" title="">APAC</a></span>
<span class='tagclouds-term'><a href="/benchmarking" class="tagclouds level4" title="">benchmarking</a></span>
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                <p>1</p>
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                <p class="blog-side-title"><a href="/blog-entry/2018-global-survey-report-trends-shared-services-and-outsourcing-market">2018 Global Survey Report: Trends in Shared Services and Outsourcing Market</a></p>
                <p class="blog-side-postedby">posted by <a href="/blog/8083">barbara.hodge@ssonetwork.com</a></p>
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  <div class="views-row views-row-2 views-row-even">
      
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                <p>2</p>
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                <p class="blog-side-title"><a href="/blog-entry/powering-women-work">Powering Women at Work</a></p>
                <p class="blog-side-postedby">posted by <a href="/blog/481">Syazana Lim</a></p>
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  <div class="views-row views-row-3 views-row-odd">
      
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                <p class="blog-side-title"><a href="/blog-entry/it-relevant-keep-discussing-millennials-if-they-are-novelty">Is it Relevant to Keep Discussing Millennials as if They are a Novelty?</a></p>
                <p class="blog-side-postedby">posted by <a href="/blog/8083">barbara.hodge@ssonetwork.com</a></p>
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                <p>4</p>
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                <p class="blog-side-title"><a href="/blog-entry/if-you-want-build-longevity-your-shared-services-organisation-team-%E2%80%93%C2%A0perhaps-set-north">If You Want to Build Up Longevity in Your Shared Services Organisation Team – Perhaps Set Up in North America?</a></p>
                <p class="blog-side-postedby">posted by <a href="/blog/8083">barbara.hodge@ssonetwork.com</a></p>
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                <p class="blog-side-title"><a href="/blog-entry/optimising-data-analytics-provide-increasing-value-added-services">Optimising data analytics to provide increasing value-added services</a></p>
                <p class="blog-side-postedby">posted by <a href="/blog/7863">Daylin Limonte</a></p>
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