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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Surf surrounds a beach house with the messages "We Don't Like Ike," and "God Bless Galveston" painted on plywood covering the windows of the house on Galveston Island as Hurricane Ike approaches the Texas Gulf Coast, Friday, Sept. 12, 2008. ( Smiley N. Pool / Chronicle )<a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Surf surrounds a beach house with the messages "We Don't Like Ike," and "God Bless Galveston" painted on plywood covering the windows of the house on Galveston Island as Hurricane Ike approaches the Texas Gulf<a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Thousands of linemen and tree service workers arrive and are dispatched from Sam Houston Race Park, Monday, coordinated by Center Point Energy in the effort to restore electrical power in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike.  Monday, Sept. 15, 2008, in Houston. ( Steve Ueckert / Chronicle )<a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Thousands of linemen and tree service workers arrive and are dispatched from Sam Houston Race Park, Monday, coordinated by Center Point Energy in the effort to restore electrical power in the aftermath of<a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">A large tree uprooted by high winds lies against a house in the Southgate neighborhood near Rice University, also crushing a trailer (lower left) as Houston reacts Saturday after the passing of Hurricane Ike. Saturday, September 13, 2008, in Houston. (Steve Ueckert / Chronicle)<a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">A large tree uprooted by high winds lies against a house in the Southgate neighborhood near Rice University, also crushing a trailer (lower left) as Houston reacts Saturday after the passing of Hurricane Ike.<a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Waves crash into the seawall reaching over the memorial to the hurricane of 1900 as Hurricane Ike began to hit Galveston on Friday, Sept. 12, 2008.  (Johnny Hanson / Chronicle )</div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Waves crash into the seawall reaching over the memorial to the hurricane of 1900 as Hurricane Ike began to hit Galveston on Friday, Sept. 12, 2008.  (Johnny Hanson / Chronicle )</div>
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full"><p>FOR RELIANT STADIUM SPECIAL SECTION --  JUNE 7, 2001-- The day much of Houston woke to find the deluge of the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison, Reliant Stadium continues to rise next to the Astrodome as the site saw minimum damage due to floodwaters.  The team training facility is begining to take shape at bottom of the photo.  Reliant Stadium will become the first retractable roof NFL facility when  the Texans open for gridiron business on Aug. 24 . (BEN DESOTO/Chronicle).     HOUCHRON CAPTION (08/18/2002):  June 7, 2001 - On the day much of Houston woke to find the deluge from Tropical Storm Allison, Reliant Stadium continues its progress next to the Astrodome. The site received minimal damage from floodwaters.   HOUSTON CHRONICLE SPECIAL SECTION: RELIANT STADIUM.</p><a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated"><p>FOR RELIANT STADIUM SPECIAL SECTION -- JUNE 7, 2001-- The day much of Houston woke to find the deluge of the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison, Reliant Stadium continues to rise next to the Astrodome as the</p><a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: BEN DESOTO, File
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full"><p>HOUSTON, UNITED STATES:  A large truck lies were swept off Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, 10 June 2001 following heavys rains and high water from tropical storm Allison. Thousands of people in Texas and Louisiana were temporarily homeless after being forced to flee flooding caused by four days of torrential rains. The American Red Cross blamed at least seven deaths on the violent weather, the aftermath of tropical storm Allison.  AFP PHOTO/James NIELSEN (Photo credit should read JAMES NIELSEN/AFP/Getty Images)</p><a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated"><p>HOUSTON, UNITED STATES: A large truck lies were swept off Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, 10 June 2001 following heavys rains and high water from tropical storm Allison. Thousands of people in Texas and</p><a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: JAMES NIELSEN/AFP/Getty Images
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full"><p>HOUSTON, UNITED STATES:  US Highway 59 is still impassable 10 June 2001 in Houston, Texas, due to rain from tropical storm Allison.  Thousands of people in Texas and Louisiana  were temporarily homeless after being forced to flee flooding caused by four days of torrential rains. The American Red Cross blamed at least seven deaths on the violent weather, the aftermath of tropical storm Allison.   AFP PHOTO/James NIELSEN (Photo credit should read JAMES NIELSEN/AFP/Getty Images)</p><a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated"><p>HOUSTON, UNITED STATES: US Highway 59 is still impassable 10 June 2001 in Houston, Texas, due to rain from tropical storm Allison. Thousands of people in Texas and Louisiana were temporarily homeless after</p><a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: JAMES NIELSEN/AFP/Getty Images
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Storms have left their mark on area communities over the years, including Tropical Storm Allison, which turned this Pearland road into a river in 2001.</div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Storms have left their mark on area communities over the years, including Tropical Storm Allison, which turned this Pearland road into a river in 2001.</div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: KARL STOLLEIS
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Bernd Wuersig and his wife, Melany, float back to their home in a subdivision in Friendswood hit by Tropical Storm Allison in June 2001.</div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Bernd Wuersig and his wife, Melany, float back to their home in a subdivision in Friendswood hit by Tropical Storm Allison in June 2001.</div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: DAVID J. PHILLIP, STF
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Floodwaters block the Interstate 45 and Interstate 10 interchange north of downtown Houston, after rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison dumped an estimated 28 inches of rain on the area in June 2001.<a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Floodwaters block the Interstate 45 and Interstate 10 interchange north of downtown Houston, after rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison dumped an estimated 28 inches of rain on the area in June<a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: DAVE EINSEL, MBR
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <div class="caption-full">Flood waters from tropical storm Allison rush through the tunnel system in the basement of the Pennzoil Building in downtown Houston 6/8/01.  HOUCHRON CAPTION (12/23/2001):  Tropical Storm Allison creates a torrent of water June 9 in the basement shops of the Pennzoil building downtown. The tunnel system's design was to blame, as it linked the building to city parking garages that took in Buffalo Bayou floodwaters.<a class="more-caption"> less</a></div>
                            <div class="caption-truncated">Flood waters from tropical storm Allison rush through the tunnel system in the basement of the Pennzoil Building in downtown Houston 6/8/01.  HOUCHRON CAPTION (12/23/2001):  Tropical Storm Allison creates a<a class="more-caption"> ... more</a></div>
                                                                                                                                            <span class="credit">                                                            Photo: Robert Eury, Central Houston Inc.
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                        <div class="gallery-overlay-title">What kind of economic punch will Hurricane Harvey pack?</div>
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<!-- e design/gallery/main_redesign.tpl --></div><!-- /gallery float --><p>With a Category 4 hurricane bearing down on the Gulf Coast, it's worth asking what kind of long-range impact the storm will have on the local economy.</p>
<p>Figuring that out, however, is complicated.&nbsp;</p>
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<!-- / hearst/ads/duplicatable.tpl --><p>On the one hand, you can look at the relatively cut-and-dried property damage figures. The National Hurricane Center <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf">has done that</a> for U.S. storms between 1900 and 2010. Katrina comes in on top by a lot, at $108 billion in damage, due in part to the high-value port and refineries that it ripped into.</p>
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</div><!-- / hdnce-e --><!-- e fixed-asset perfectPixelWide --><p>Here's that list (which doesn't include Hurricane Sandy, and isn't adjusted for inflation):&nbsp;</p>
<p>1. KATRINA (SE FL, LA, MS) 2005, $108 billion<br>2. IKE (TX, LA) 2008, $29.5 billion<br>3. ANDREW (SE FL/LA) 1992, $26.5 billion&nbsp;<br>4. WILMA (S FL) 2005, 3 $21 billion<br>5. IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004, $18.8 billion<br>6. CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004, $15.1 billion<br>7. RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005, $12 billion<br>8. FRANCES (FL) 2004, $9.5 billion<br>9. ALLISON (N TX) 2001, $9 billion<br>10. JEANNE (FL) 2004 $7.7 billion<br>11. HUGO (SC) 1989, $7 billion&nbsp;<br>12. FLOYD (Mid-Atlantic &amp; NE U.S.) 1999, $6.9<br>13. ISABEL (Mid-Atlantic) 2003, $5.4 billion<br>14. OPAL (NW FL/AL) 1995, $5.1 billion<br>15. GUSTAV (LA) 2008, $4.6 billion<br>16. FRAN (NC) 1996, $4.2 billion<br>17. GEORGES (FL Keys, MS, AL) 1998, $2.8 billion<br>18. DENNIS (NW FL) 2005, $2.5 billion<br>19. FREDERIC (AL/MS) 1979, $2.3<br>20. AGNES (FL/NE U.S.) 1972, $2.1 billion</p>
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</div><!-- e src/business/widgets/hearst/collection/widget.tpl --></div><p>Not all of those were "major" storms, meaning Category 3 or higher. Allison, for example, was only a tropical storm&nbsp;that caused major flooding across Houston. Relatively minor storms that hit highly populated or infrastructure-dense areas can have an outsize impact.</p>
<p>Already, CoreLogic is <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/150years/article/Hurricane-Harvey-Houston-home-rebuilding-cost-11957805.php">predicting</a> that property damage from Hurricane Harvey could total $40 billion statewide.&nbsp;</p>
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<!-- / hearst/ads/duplicatable.tpl --><p>Calculating <em>overall</em> economic impact isn't that easy. We also have to take into account reconstruction efforts, which can create an economic shot in the arm through insurance settlements, government aid and remittances from overseas relatives.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697521">a 2005 study</a>, those revenues cover four-fifths of the damage caused by the average hurricane.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Recovery-related activity after Hurricane Andrew boosted spending in Miami by $3.8 billion in just 18 months, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00420980701518917">a 2007 paper found</a>, and the area <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/regional-economics/2017/08/24/hurricane-andrew-25-years-later">rebounded strongly </a>in the following years. A federal government analysis of Hurricane Sandy found that the storm <a href="https://www.esa.gov/sites/default/files/sandyfinal101713.pdf">led to 270,000 net jobs</a> being created in New Jersey over four years, mostly in construction.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Those replacement effects don't always make up for the hit to local property in coastal counties, <a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00082">a 2008 study of U.S. hurricanes found</a>, and that money could be more productively spent elsewhere if the weather hadn't gotten ugly.</p>
<p>Still, that study found the disasters had negligible long-run effects on state and national growth rates. Even Katrina victims' personal incomes recovered relatively quickly after the disruption to jobs and workplaces, researchers <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w20713">wrote in 2014</a>.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Worldwide, the severity of the economic impact of devastating storms is still debated. One study <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1543453">from 2009</a> found that only a handful of countries showed negative impacts over the longer term. Another, <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352">from 2014</a>, calculated that extreme storms depressed incomes by 7.4 percent even two decades later. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Overall, the damage that Harvey causes will depend on the quality of the preparations that residents have made, and the generosity of the response that ensues.</p>
<p>Will state and federal governments send billions of dollars of aid to rebuild Houston, Corpus Christi and everything in between once the waters recede? If not, the hit could be hard and lasting.</p>
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