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		<title>The lessons of Hurricane Harvey</title>
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			The lessons of Hurricane Harvey

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			<time class="article-date" itemprop="datePublished" datetime="2017-09-11T04:00:27.000Z">September 11, 2017 4:00 am</time>
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			<p>The most important lesson for the energy sector emerging from <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7c01ac30-8ef6-11e7-9084-d0c17942ba93" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.ft.com/content/7c01ac30-8ef6-11e7-9084-d0c17942ba93" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="Hurricane Harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a> is that the key issue of energy security is no longer physical shortages of fuel supplies but the quality of the infrastructure system that takes energy to the final consumer.</p><p>Consider what happened in the days after the hurricane hit Texas (These facts are taken from the daily market summary produced by <a href="https://www.platts.com/" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.platts.com/" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="SampP Global Platts">S&amp;P Global Platts</a>.)</p><ul><li>A week after the event 19 refineries were wholly or partially closed. The rough estimate for the volume lost is some 3.2m barrels a day.</li><li>Some 100,000 b/d per day of oil production and 270m standard cubic feet a day of natural gas production from the Gulf was shut in.</li><li>Crude oil prices fell in the immediate aftermath of the flooding because the closed refineries stopped buying crude.</li><li>Gasoline prices spiked by up to 10 per cent because the refineries were unable to keep producing.</li></ul><p>Two weeks on some of these effects are still obvious. Overall, however, the market has adjusted remarkably quickly. Production and refinery throughput is gradually being restored. Prices have settled back.</p><div class="ad-container"><amp-ad width="300" height="250" type="doubleclick"></amp-ad></div><p>Hurricane Harvey was a human tragedy with at least 60 people killed and thousands forced out of their homes. But it has not produced an energy crisis. The US system has proved to be remarkably resilient. Other countries need to learn from what has happened.</p><figure class="article-image article-image--inline"><div class="article-image__placeholder"><amp-img width="272" height="408" src="https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.ft.com%2Fnick-butler%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F09%2FGettyImages-8399939621-272x408.jpg?source=google-amp&fit=scale-down&width=272" alt="Floods surround Texas refineries" layout="fixed"></amp-img></div></figure><p>Harvey is a sharp reminder of how much has changed in energy security. There was no shortage of crude oil — in the US or at the global level. The market is well supplied. Despite the Opec production quotas, and the problems in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela where output is running below capacity, supply easily covered the shortfall in the US. If, as David <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e40bc12-9246-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c?tagToFollow=" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.ft.com/content/3e40bc12-9246-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c?tagToFollow=" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="Sheppard">Sheppard</a> wrote in the FT last week, the US Federal authorities held stocks of refined products as well as crude there would have been no break in supplies at all.</p><p>But other issues can pose a challenge to the flow of supply that consumers take for granted. Primary sources — the raw materials — need to be processed and converted into forms of energy that can be used by consumers. Crude oil must be refined into gasoline or other products, gas or coal converted to electricity. And the lines and grids must be in place to take energy from the point of production to the point of consumption.</p><p>This aspect of energy security tends to be ignored — because we are in an age of plenty. The last two weeks have shown that security of supply means more than being able to withstand embargoes or politically motivated cuts in supply. The breakdown of infrastructure is far more of a risk.</p><p>The US seems well able to cope. A century and more of development, helped recently by the growth of the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d918e0f8-5646-35ea-93dd-588e5c5b0e0d" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.ft.com/content/d918e0f8-5646-35ea-93dd-588e5c5b0e0d" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="shale business">shale business</a>, gives the US a diversified network of supplies linked by a web of lines carrying crude, products, gas and electricity. Although the refinery business is concentrated around the Gulf coast, there are enough sources of products to cover temporary shortfalls.</p><p>But the issue of energy security and infrastructure is not limited to the US. In Europe, electricity and gas networks are still in essence national grids imperfectly linked, creating a patchwork quilt that can limit the substitution of one source of supply for another.</p><p>In countries such as UK, gas has becoming a balancing fuel — backing up intermittent wind and solar. The problem is that running gas-fired power stations can become uneconomic if usage is low. In the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/68fa2c3e-55ad-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.ft.com/content/68fa2c3e-55ad-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="North Sea">North Sea</a> the struggle to develop further resources from the 20bn barrels or so still in place will be complicated if the infrastructrure is not secured and maintained.</p><p>The EU has recognised the problem and over the last five years as the concept of an energy union has developed has begun listing essential infrastructure projects that could both reinforce open-market trading and provide a degree of insurance if supplies in any region are disrupted. The latest list, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/infrastructure/projects-common-interest" data-vars-link-destination="http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/infrastructure/projects-common-interest" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="published">published</a> in 2015, covers 195 “projects of common interest”. Very few of these have advanced since then. The impetus for action around the energy union appears to have been lost.</p><p>In the UK, the capacity market is supposed to address potential shortages but is not providing the incentives for private investment in new gas-fired capacity. Britain’s infrastructure <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/national-infrastructure-commission" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/national-infrastructure-commission" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="commission">commission</a> has still not looked at energy issues and only one member of the commission has any experience in the sector.</p><p>Similar problems exist elsewhere. In many emerging market economies the lack of infrastructure continues to hold back the development and supply of resources. Very few countries have full-scale grids and back-up systems. The risks vary, but exposure to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4be88e4f-ca90-3698-a131-9aa6f81ade44" data-vars-link-destination="https://www.ft.com/content/4be88e4f-ca90-3698-a131-9aa6f81ade44" data-vars-link-type="inline" data-vars-link-text="extreme weather">extreme weather</a> is widespread as is vulnerability to terrorist action.</p><p>It is not difficult to think of a dozen infrastructure links across Europe where a breakdown of supplies would cause serious economic disruption. Some countries have back-up systems — in the UK, for instance, the tanker drivers’ dispute in 2000 led to serious analysis of fuel distribution. But many parts of the continent’s energy network remain vulnerable.</p><p>One part of the challenge is that most energy infrastructure (certainly in the US and Europe) is privately owned while energy security is regarded as a public good for which governments have a responsibility. If the lights go out, governments are at risk rather than chief executives. Governments across the world have to set standards of infrastructure provision because no one else will. And consumers will have to pay and should be happy to do so because insurance can be a good investment.</p><p>As the waters recede, Hurricane Harvey should serve as a reminder that we live in a world where stability and continuity are the exception rather than the norm. The systems we depend on have to be built, and wherever necessary rebuilt, to minimise the disruption caused by events that are beyond all prediction.</p>

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