<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><base href="/"><title>Hurricane Harvey Has Morphed Into A Major U.S. Gasoline Supply Disruption Event</title><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1,user-scalable=no"><link rel="canonical" itemprop="url" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-has-morphed-into-a-major-u-s-gasoline-supply-disruption-event/"><script>!function(e){function n(r){if(t[r])return t[r].exports;var o=t[r]={i:r,l:!1,exports:{}};return e[r].call(o.exports,o,o.exports,n),o.l=!0,o.exports}var r=window.webpackJsonp;window.webpackJsonp=function(t,c,a){for(var i,u,f,s=0,d=[];s<t.length;s++)u=t[s],o[u]&&d.push(o[u][0]),o[u]=0;for(i in c)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(c,i)&&(e[i]=c[i]);for(r&&r(t,c,a);d.length;)d.shift()();if(a)for(s=0;s<a.length;s++)f=n(n.s=a[s]);return f};var t={},o={6:0};n.e=function(e){function 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<!----><h1 _ngcontent-c15="" class="fs-headline speakable-headline">Hurricane Harvey Has Morphed Into A Major U.S. Gasoline Supply Disruption Event</h1>

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<div _ngcontent-c20="" innerhtml="<p>Ever since Hurricane Harvey appeared on the Gulf of Mexico horizon on 25 August, carrying with it the potential to batter the coastline of Texas, U.S. – home to the country’s biggest refineries and the oil industry’s capital of Houston – experts have been scrambling to work out what kind of disruption it could cause to gasoline supply, at a time when demand remains elevated.</p> 
<p>The varying scales of the storm’s ferocity over the last few days have heightened&amp;nbsp;industry concern. Harvey initially emerged as a category ‘three’ storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, capable of causing extensive damage to property and infrastructure, only to be subsequently upgraded to an even fiercer category 'four' event, and then&amp;nbsp;downgraded to a persistent tropical storm.</p> 
<p>It is the latter that has resulted in a record 30in (75cm) of rain on the city of Houston turning roads into rivers; a precipitation volume that is set to double by 30 August, accompanied by widespread damage to property and infrastructure. The extent of the unfolding human tragedy is yet to be fully felt as Henry remains an ongoing event but a picture of what the oil market would have to face&amp;nbsp;is now emerging with Corpus Christi, Houston and much of south-western Texas in Harvey’s grip.</p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_839117036&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839117036%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839117036%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=&quot;&quot;> 
  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;><em>An oil refinery<span>&amp;nbsp;</span>seen before the arrival of Hurricane Harvey on 25 August, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas, U.S. As the hurricane<span>&amp;nbsp;</span>came&amp;nbsp;ashore many oil refineries in its path had to be shut down. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)</em></p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<p>According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Texas Gulf Coast has a refining capacity of 4.944 million barrels per day (bpd) while the adjoining Louisiana Gulf Coast has a 3.696 million bpd capacity.</p> 
<p>Forecasters currently predict the storm would move up the Texas coastline toward Louisiana and cause widespread disruption at refining facilities. In theory around 32% of EIA’s stated capacity figure for Texas and Louisiana could be shut in such a scenario, more so if there is disruption in Port Arthur; home to the country’s largest refining complex.</p> 
<div class=&quot;vestpocket&quot; vest-pocket=&quot;&quot;></div> 
<p>As of now, around 2.2 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut, limited to the Greater Houston area and Corpus Christi with no major damage to facilities reported, according to S&amp;amp;P Global Platts.</p> 
<p>The shutdowns include ExxonMobil Baytown (560,500 bpd), and Valero (293,000 bpd), Citgo (157,500 bpd), Flint Hills (296,470 bpd), Magellan (50,000 bpd) and Buckeye (50,000 bpd) – all in Corpus Christi. Shell Deer Park (340,000 bpd), Pasadena (112,229 bpd), Phillips66 Sweeny (247,000 bpd) and Valero Three Rivers (89,000 bpd) facilities have also been temporarily closed.</p> 
<p>Even if these refineries come back online as soon as the storm recedes, infrastructure, logistics and transportation beyond the refining complexes would extend supply problems. As Harvey approached, <a href=&quot;http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oil-futures-spike-texas-braces-hurricane-henry-1636712&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>maritime port condition Yankee</a> – implying hurricane-force winds are possible within 24 hours – was set for the ports Houston, Texas City, Galveston, Freeport and Corpus Christi; with all of the aforementioned closed to inbound traffic.</p> 
<p>According to sources, the closures remain in place for the said ports and hydrocarbon terminal facilities, and disruption is expected in Louisiana’s Lake Charles as the week progresses. From ports to pipelines, Magellan Midstream confirmed it has suspended operations on BridgeTex and Longhorn pipelines that carry a combined 675,000 bpd of crude from the Permian Basin in Texas to the US Gulf Coast.</p>"><p class="speakable-paragraph">Ever since Hurricane Harvey appeared on the Gulf of Mexico horizon on 25 August, carrying with it the potential to batter the coastline of Texas, U.S. – home to the country’s biggest refineries and the oil industry’s capital of Houston – experts have been scrambling to work out what kind of disruption it could cause to gasoline supply, at a time when demand remains elevated.</p> 
<p>The varying scales of the storm’s ferocity over the last few days have heightened&nbsp;industry concern. Harvey initially emerged as a category ‘three’ storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, capable of causing extensive damage to property and infrastructure, only to be subsequently upgraded to an even fiercer category 'four' event, and then&nbsp;downgraded to a persistent tropical storm.</p> 
<p>It is the latter that has resulted in a record 30in (75cm) of rain on the city of Houston turning roads into rivers; a precipitation volume that is set to double by 30 August, accompanied by widespread damage to property and infrastructure. The extent of the unfolding human tragedy is yet to be fully felt as Henry remains an ongoing event but a picture of what the oil market would have to face&nbsp;is now emerging with Corpus Christi, Houston and much of south-western Texas in Harvey’s grip.</p> 
<div id="attachment_839117036" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839117036%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F839117036%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text"><em>An oil refinery<span>&nbsp;</span>seen before the arrival of Hurricane Harvey on 25 August, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas, U.S. As the hurricane<span>&nbsp;</span>came&nbsp;ashore many oil refineries in its path had to be shut down. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)</em></p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<p>According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Texas Gulf Coast has a refining capacity of 4.944 million barrels per day (bpd) while the adjoining Louisiana Gulf Coast has a 3.696 million bpd capacity.</p> 
<p>Forecasters currently predict the storm would move up the Texas coastline toward Louisiana and cause widespread disruption at refining facilities. In theory around 32% of EIA’s stated capacity figure for Texas and Louisiana could be shut in such a scenario, more so if there is disruption in Port Arthur; home to the country’s largest refining complex.</p> 
<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> 
<p>As of now, around 2.2 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut, limited to the Greater Houston area and Corpus Christi with no major damage to facilities reported, according to S&amp;P Global Platts.</p> 
<p>The shutdowns include ExxonMobil Baytown (560,500 bpd), and Valero (293,000 bpd), Citgo (157,500 bpd), Flint Hills (296,470 bpd), Magellan (50,000 bpd) and Buckeye (50,000 bpd) – all in Corpus Christi. Shell Deer Park (340,000 bpd), Pasadena (112,229 bpd), Phillips66 Sweeny (247,000 bpd) and Valero Three Rivers (89,000 bpd) facilities have also been temporarily closed.</p> 
<p>Even if these refineries come back online as soon as the storm recedes, infrastructure, logistics and transportation beyond the refining complexes would extend supply problems. As Harvey approached, <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oil-futures-spike-texas-braces-hurricane-henry-1636712" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">maritime port condition Yankee</a> – implying hurricane-force winds are possible within 24 hours – was set for the ports Houston, Texas City, Galveston, Freeport and Corpus Christi; with all of the aforementioned closed to inbound traffic.</p> 
<p>According to sources, the closures remain in place for the said ports and hydrocarbon terminal facilities, and disruption is expected in Louisiana’s Lake Charles as the week progresses. From ports to pipelines, Magellan Midstream confirmed it has suspended operations on BridgeTex and Longhorn pipelines that carry a combined 675,000 bpd of crude from the Permian Basin in Texas to the US Gulf Coast.</p></div>
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	</app-root><script id="ng-templates-state" type="application/json">{&q;environmentName&q;:&q;prod&q;,&q;is_mobile&q;:false,&q;/forbesapi/content/uri.json?shortcodes=true&a;slides=true&a;type=ng&a;tickers=true&a;bvallpages=true&a;autovpslider=true&a;stream=true&a;compressimages=true&a;mobile=false&a;prgsmobileads=false&a;relativeVideo=true&a;videoplayertype=brightcove_perform_with_keyvalues&a;swimlane=&a;uri=http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-has-morphed-into-a-major-u-s-gasoline-supply-disruption-event/&q;:{&q;content&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;content_59a45e2864aaf9435aebc862&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/3154-2089&q;,&q;source&q;:&q;blogs&q;,&q;author&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Hurricane Harvey Has Morphed Into A Major U.S. Gasoline Supply Disruption Event&q;,&q;date&q;:1503946860000,&q;body&q;:&q;&l;p&g;Ever since Hurricane Harvey appeared on the Gulf of Mexico horizon on 25 August, carrying with it the potential to batter the coastline of Texas, U.S. &a;ndash; home to the country&a;rsquo;s biggest refineries and the oil industry&a;rsquo;s capital of Houston &a;ndash; experts have been scrambling to work out what kind of disruption it could cause to gasoline supply, at a time when demand remains elevated.\r\n\r\nThe varying scales of the storm&a;rsquo;s ferocity over the last few days have heightened&a;nbsp;industry concern. Harvey initially emerged as a category &a;lsquo;three&a;rsquo; storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, capable of causing extensive damage to property and infrastructure, only to be subsequently upgraded to an even fiercer category &s;four&s; event, and then&a;nbsp;downgraded to a persistent tropical storm.\r\n\r\nIt is the latter that has resulted in a record 30in (75cm) of rain on the city of Houston turning roads into rivers; a precipitation volume that is set to double by 30 August, accompanied by widespread damage to property and infrastructure. The extent of the unfolding human tragedy is yet to be fully felt as Henry remains an ongoing event but a picture of what the oil market would have to face&a;nbsp;is now emerging with Corpus Christi, Houston and much of south-western Texas in Harvey&a;rsquo;s grip.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_839117036\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839117036\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839117036/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g;&l;em&g;An oil refinery&l;span&g;&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;seen before the arrival of Hurricane Harvey on 25 August, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas, U.S. As the hurricane&l;span&g;&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;came&a;nbsp;ashore many oil refineries in its path had to be shut down. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)&l;/em&g;[/caption]\r\n\r\nAccording to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Texas Gulf Coast has a refining capacity of 4.944 million barrels per day (bpd) while the adjoining Louisiana Gulf Coast has a 3.696 million bpd capacity.\r\n\r\nForecasters currently predict the storm would move up the Texas coastline toward Louisiana and cause widespread disruption at refining facilities. In theory around 32% of EIA&a;rsquo;s stated capacity figure for Texas and Louisiana could be shut in such a scenario, more so if there is disruption in Port Arthur; home to the country&a;rsquo;s largest refining complex.\r\n\r\nAs of now, around 2.2 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut, limited to the Greater Houston area and Corpus Christi with no major damage to facilities reported, according to S&a;amp;P Global Platts.\r\n\r\nThe shutdowns include ExxonMobil Baytown (560,500 bpd), and Valero (293,000 bpd), Citgo (157,500 bpd), Flint Hills (296,470 bpd), Magellan (50,000 bpd) and Buckeye (50,000 bpd) &a;ndash; all in Corpus Christi. Shell Deer Park (340,000 bpd), Pasadena (112,229 bpd), Phillips66 Sweeny (247,000 bpd) and Valero Three Rivers (89,000 bpd) facilities have also been temporarily closed.\r\n\r\nEven if these refineries come back online as soon as the storm recedes, infrastructure, logistics and transportation beyond the refining complexes would extend supply problems. As Harvey approached, &l;a href=\&q;http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oil-futures-spike-texas-braces-hurricane-henry-1636712\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;maritime port condition Yankee&l;/a&g; &a;ndash; implying hurricane-force winds are possible within 24 hours &a;ndash; was set for the ports Houston, Texas City, Galveston, Freeport and Corpus Christi; with all of the aforementioned closed to inbound traffic.\r\n\r\nAccording to sources, the closures remain in place for the said ports and hydrocarbon terminal facilities, and disruption is expected in Louisiana&a;rsquo;s Lake Charles as the week progresses. From ports to pipelines, Magellan Midstream confirmed it has suspended operations on BridgeTex and Longhorn pipelines that carry a combined 675,000 bpd of crude from the Permian Basin in Texas to the US Gulf Coast.&l;!--nextpage--&g;\r\n\r\n&l;span&g;Kinder Morgan said it was monitoring the situation but had temporarily shut some of its 300,000 bpd crude and condensate pipeline system in Texas. A partial shutdown of the company&a;rsquo;s Double Eagle, Texas Gas Pipeline, Texas Natural Gas Pipeline and the Texas Interstates systems was also in place.&a;nbsp;However, Colonial said one of its pipelines, which runs from Pasadena, Texas, to Greensboro, North Carolina, and then on to Linden, New Jersey, was operating as normal.&l;/span&g;\r\n\r\nPower is unlikely to be restored to certain parts of Houston until at least 2 September, and trading houses are either asking staff to work from home or have shut operations.&a;nbsp;Even if Harvey does not worsen matters from a logistics and infrastructural standpoint, the disruption to date is significant. Gasoline futures have predictably spiked to their highest level since July 2015, up nearly 7% in a couple of sessions on the New York Mercantile Exchange.\r\n\r\nAt 15:45 BST, NYMEX Gasoline contract for September delivery was up 3.1% to $1.7183 a gallon, having risen to $1.7799 at one point. According to the latest EIA data, gasoline stocks are currently at 230 million barrels, representing about 22 days of supply.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_41505850\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41505850\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41505850/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g;&l;em&g;An employee, second left, informs customers of fuel shortage at an HEB Fuel gas station in Houston, Texas, U.S. (Photo: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)&l;/em&g;[/caption]\r\n\r\nMark Sadeghian, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said Harvey&s;s impact on Texas Gulf Coast refinery operations near the eye of the storm is likely to be &a;ldquo;large and potentially long lasting.&a;rdquo;\r\n\r\n&a;ldquo;However, the timing of the event may limit the duration of a gasoline price spike since the market is currently well supplied and the U.S. driving season is nearing an end.&a;rdquo;\r\n\r\nFitch Ratings also expects unaffected refineries to potentially benefit from higher crack spreads resulting from market disruption. &a;ldquo;Many refineries outside the most heavily affected areas, including inland facilities and those in central and eastern Louisiana, will likely benefit from higher gasoline crack spreads created by forced capacity outages in Texas.\r\n\r\n&a;ldquo;For facilities still up and running and able to supply areas normally serviced from the Gulf Coast, this would boost results, particularly if extensive flooding and power outages keep Texas refineries and transportation infrastructure offline for an extended period,&a;rdquo; Sadeghian concluded.\r\n\r\nParadoxically, given the existing and expected impediments to Gulf Coast refining, crude oil prices have slumped to a rapid retreat as Harvey rages, despite supply disruptions.\r\n\r\nStatoil, BHP Billiton, ConocoPhillips, Murphy Oil and several independents have stopped production at Eagle Ford shale plays in Southern Texas, directly in the path of Harvey. The region accounts for 1.35 million bpd of oil production.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, S&a;amp;P Global Platts said offshore operators in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have shut more than 378,633 bpd of output or 21.64% of total regional&a;nbsp;production.\r\n\r\nDespite that, at 18:55pm BST, the Brent front month futures contract was down 1.49% or 78 cents to $51.63 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was down 3.03% or $1.45 to $46.42 per barrel, as traders anticipated lower enforced demand from Gulf Coast refiners and the build-up of &l;a href=\&q;http://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2013/05/on-crude-raid-uk-iea-houston-glut.html\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;noopener noreferrer\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;another Houston glut&l;/a&g;.\r\n\r\nDemand for gasoline could suffer too over the coming months, but as of now long calls on gasoline and short bets on crude oil seem to be the order of the week.&l;/p&g;&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Forecasters currently predict the storm would move up the Texas coastline toward Louisiana and cause widespread disruption at US refining facilities, potentially knocking out up to 32% of output.&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839117036/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;storyType&q;:&q;post&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-has-morphed-into-a-major-u-s-gasoline-supply-disruption-event/&q;,&q;comments&q;:[],&q;visible&q;:true,&q;authors&q;:[{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1223795&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=400&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=136&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=62&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=40&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;/sites/gauravsharma/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;The_Oilholic&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;email&q;:&q;journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk&q;,&q;blog&q;:false,&q;timestamp&q;:1516641894896,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I cover commodities, mostly oil &a; gas, often debunking risk premiums.&q;,&q;webSite&q;:&q;http://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/&q;,&q;blogName&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;topics&q;:[&q;risk&q;,&q;energy--environment&q;,&q;europe&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;gold-commodities&q;,&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;energy&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;markets&q;,&q;etfs&q;,&q;intelligent-investing&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;financial-planning-playbook&q;,&q;financial-management-solutions&q;,&q;financing&q;,&q;global-2000-leading-companies&q;,&q;asia&q;,&q;asia-pacific&q;,&q;investing&q;],&q;description&q;:&q;I am a UK-based oil &a;amp; gas sector analyst, writer and Business Editor at International Business Times (UK) with over 15 years of experience in the financial and trade press. I have worked on all major media platforms – print, newswire, web and broadcast. At various points in my career, I have been an OPEC, Bank of England and UK Office for National Statistics correspondent. Over the years, I have provided wide ranging oil &a;amp; gas sector commentary, including pricing, supply scenarios, E&a;amp;P infrastructure, corporations&s; financials and exploration data. I am a lively commentator on ‘crude’ matters for publications and broadcasting outlets including CNBC Europe, BBC Radio, Asian and Middle Eastern networks, via my own website, Forbes and IBTimes UK. My oil market commentary has a partial supply-side bias based on a belief that the risk premium is often given gratuitous, somewhat convenient, prominence by cheeky souls who handle quite a few paper barrels but have probably never been to a tanker terminal or the receiving end of a pipeline. Yet having done both, I pragmatically accept paper barrels [or should we say ‘e-barrels’] are not going anywhere, anytime soon!&q;,&q;recentActivityCount&q;:0,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447374540000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3154&q;,&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1sb3bQJ&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;commodties &a; currencies&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1399671155000,&q;slug&q;:&q;gauravsharma&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;primarySectionId&q;:&q;section_9&q;,&q;googlePlus&q;:&q;102773745883845804086&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:true,&q;sigfile&q;:&q;&l;em&g;The author is an oil market analyst and Business Editor of IBTimes UK. Follow him on Twitter &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/The_Oilholic\&q;&g;@The_Oilholic&l;/a&g;&l;/em&g;&q;,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;The_Oilholic&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/3134162476/fb23f37c3859e1adc0e8bd5b8961908e.jpeg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Biz editor @IBTimesUK, oil market analyst, author of Oilholics Synonymous, @Forbes columnist, intrepid traveller. All crude thoughts my own; RT&s;s ≠ endorsement&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1358692879000,&q;location&q;:&q;London, UK&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;http://t.co/IrnDaKR3ox&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.oilholicssynonymous.com&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;oilholicssynonymous.com&q;,&q;verified&q;:false},&q;inactive&q;:true,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_9&q;,&q;sectionName&q;:&q;Commodities &a; Currencies&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/commodities-currencies&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Commodities &a; Currencies&q;},&q;division&q;:&q;FC&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}},{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3154&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;http://blogs.forbes.com/gauravsharma/profile/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;The_Oilholic&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;linkedIn&q;:&q;http://uk.linkedin.com/in/gauravsharmajournalist&q;,&q;blog&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1473605087872,&q;topics&q;:[&q;risk&q;,&q;energy--environment&q;,&q;europe&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;gold-commodities&q;,&q;commodities-currencies&q;,&q;energy&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;markets&q;,&q;etfs&q;,&q;intelligent-investing&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;financial-planning-playbook&q;,&q;financial-management-solutions&q;,&q;financing&q;,&q;global-2000-leading-companies&q;,&q;asia&q;,&q;asia-pacific&q;,&q;investing&q;,&q;options&q;],&q;recentActivityCount&q;:1,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447374540000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3154&q;,&q;primaryContributor&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1223795&q;,&q;primaryContributorData&q;:{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1223795&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=136&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=40&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=400&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8531091a887446422e55da35722907bf?s=62&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;}],&q;blog&q;:false,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I cover oil and gas, often debunking risk premiums on the supply side&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;I am a UK-based financial writer and oil &a;amp; gas sector analyst with over 15 years of experience in the financial and trade press. I have worked on all major media platforms – print, newswire, web and broadcast. At various points in my career, I have been an OPEC, Bank of England and UK Office for National Statistics correspondent. Over the years, I have provided wide ranging oil &a;amp; gas sector commentary, including pricing, supply scenarios, E&a;amp;P infrastructure, corporations&s; financials and exploration data. I am a lively commentator on ‘crude’ matters for publications and broadcasting outlets including CNBC Europe, BBC Radio, Asian and Middle Eastern networks, via my own website and now Forbes. My oil market commentary has a partial supply-side bias based on a belief that the risk premium is often given gratuitous, somewhat convenient, prominence by cheeky souls who handle quite a few paper barrels but have probably never been to a tanker terminal or the receiving end of a pipeline. Yet having done both, I pragmatically accept paper barrels [or should we say ‘e-barrels’] are not going anywhere, anytime soon!&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false},&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1sb3bQK&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;commodties &a; currencies&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1399656840000,&q;slug&q;:&q;gauravsharma&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;primarySectionId&q;:&q;section_9&q;,&q;googlePlus&q;:&q;102773745883845804086&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:true,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;The_Oilholic&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Gaurav Sharma&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/3134162476/fb23f37c3859e1adc0e8bd5b8961908e.jpeg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Biz editor @IBTimesUK, oil market analyst, author of Oilholics Synonymous, @Forbes columnist, intrepid traveller. 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Harvey initially emerged as a category ‘three’ storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, capable of causing extensive damage to property and infrastructure, only to be subsequently upgraded to an even fiercer category &s;four&s; event, and then&a;nbsp;downgraded to a persistent tropical storm.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;It is the latter that has resulted in a record 30in (75cm) of rain on the city of Houston turning roads into rivers; a precipitation volume that is set to double by 30 August, accompanied by widespread damage to property and infrastructure. The extent of the unfolding human tragedy is yet to be fully felt as Henry remains an ongoing event but a picture of what the oil market would have to face&a;nbsp;is now emerging with Corpus Christi, Houston and much of south-western Texas in Harvey’s grip.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_839117036\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-839117036\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/839117036/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;&l;em&g;An oil refinery&l;span&g;&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;seen before the arrival of Hurricane Harvey on 25 August, 2017 in Corpus Christi, Texas, U.S. As the hurricane&l;span&g;&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;came&a;nbsp;ashore many oil refineries in its path had to be shut down. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)&l;/em&g;&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Texas Gulf Coast has a refining capacity of 4.944 million barrels per day (bpd) while the adjoining Louisiana Gulf Coast has a 3.696 million bpd capacity.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Forecasters currently predict the storm would move up the Texas coastline toward Louisiana and cause widespread disruption at refining facilities. In theory around 32% of EIA’s stated capacity figure for Texas and Louisiana could be shut in such a scenario, more so if there is disruption in Port Arthur; home to the country’s largest refining complex.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;As of now, around 2.2 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut, limited to the Greater Houston area and Corpus Christi with no major damage to facilities reported, according to S&a;amp;P Global Platts.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The shutdowns include ExxonMobil Baytown (560,500 bpd), and Valero (293,000 bpd), Citgo (157,500 bpd), Flint Hills (296,470 bpd), Magellan (50,000 bpd) and Buckeye (50,000 bpd) – all in Corpus Christi. Shell Deer Park (340,000 bpd), Pasadena (112,229 bpd), Phillips66 Sweeny (247,000 bpd) and Valero Three Rivers (89,000 bpd) facilities have also been temporarily closed.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Even if these refineries come back online as soon as the storm recedes, infrastructure, logistics and transportation beyond the refining complexes would extend supply problems. As Harvey approached, &l;a href=\&q;http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oil-futures-spike-texas-braces-hurricane-henry-1636712\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;maritime port condition Yankee&l;/a&g; – implying hurricane-force winds are possible within 24 hours – was set for the ports Houston, Texas City, Galveston, Freeport and Corpus Christi; with all of the aforementioned closed to inbound traffic.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;According to sources, the closures remain in place for the said ports and hydrocarbon terminal facilities, and disruption is expected in Louisiana’s Lake Charles as the week progresses. From ports to pipelines, Magellan Midstream confirmed it has suspended operations on BridgeTex and Longhorn pipelines that carry a combined 675,000 bpd of crude from the Permian Basin in Texas to the US Gulf Coast.&l;/p&g;&q;,&q;&l;p&g;&l;span&g;Kinder Morgan said it was monitoring the situation but had temporarily shut some of its 300,000 bpd crude and condensate pipeline system in Texas. A partial shutdown of the company’s Double Eagle, Texas Gas Pipeline, Texas Natural Gas Pipeline and the Texas Interstates systems was also in place.&a;nbsp;However, Colonial said one of its pipelines, which runs from Pasadena, Texas, to Greensboro, North Carolina, and then on to Linden, New Jersey, was operating as normal.&l;/span&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Power is unlikely to be restored to certain parts of Houston until at least 2 September, and trading houses are either asking staff to work from home or have shut operations.&a;nbsp;Even if Harvey does not worsen matters from a logistics and infrastructural standpoint, the disruption to date is significant. Gasoline futures have predictably spiked to their highest level since July 2015, up nearly 7% in a couple of sessions on the New York Mercantile Exchange.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;At 15:45 BST, NYMEX Gasoline contract for September delivery was up 3.1% to $1.7183 a gallon, having risen to $1.7799 at one point. According to the latest EIA data, gasoline stocks are currently at 230 million barrels, representing about 22 days of supply.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_41505850\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41505850\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41505850/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;640\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;&l;em&g;An employee, second left, informs customers of fuel shortage at an HEB Fuel gas station in Houston, Texas, U.S. (Photo: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg)&l;/em&g;&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Mark Sadeghian, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said Harvey&s;s impact on Texas Gulf Coast refinery operations near the eye of the storm is likely to be “large and potentially long lasting.”&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;“However, the timing of the event may limit the duration of a gasoline price spike since the market is currently well supplied and the U.S. driving season is nearing an end.”&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Fitch Ratings also expects unaffected refineries to potentially benefit from higher crack spreads resulting from market disruption. “Many refineries outside the most heavily affected areas, including inland facilities and those in central and eastern Louisiana, will likely benefit from higher gasoline crack spreads created by forced capacity outages in Texas.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;“For facilities still up and running and able to supply areas normally serviced from the Gulf Coast, this would boost results, particularly if extensive flooding and power outages keep Texas refineries and transportation infrastructure offline for an extended period,” Sadeghian concluded.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Paradoxically, given the existing and expected impediments to Gulf Coast refining, crude oil prices have slumped to a rapid retreat as Harvey rages, despite supply disruptions.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Statoil, BHP Billiton, ConocoPhillips, Murphy Oil and several independents have stopped production at Eagle Ford shale plays in Southern Texas, directly in the path of Harvey. The region accounts for 1.35 million bpd of oil production.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Additionally, S&a;amp;P Global Platts said offshore operators in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have shut more than 378,633 bpd of output or 21.64% of total regional&a;nbsp;production.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Despite that, at 18:55pm BST, the Brent front month futures contract was down 1.49% or 78 cents to $51.63 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was down 3.03% or $1.45 to $46.42 per barrel, as traders anticipated lower enforced demand from Gulf Coast refiners and the build-up of &l;a href=\&q;http://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2013/05/on-crude-raid-uk-iea-houston-glut.html\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;another Houston glut&l;/a&g;.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Demand for gasoline could suffer too over the coming months, but as of now long calls on gasoline and short bets on crude oil seem to be the order of the week.&l;/p&g;&q;],&q;channelSectionMappings&q;:[{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_1&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Business&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/business&q;},{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_1section_111&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Business&q;,&q;sectionName&q;:&q;Logistics &a; 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