<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><base href="/"><title>From North Korea To Hurricanes: What Do Recent Events Mean For Investors?</title><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1,user-scalable=no"><link rel="canonical" itemprop="url" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2017/09/08/from-north-korea-to-hurricanes-what-do-recent-events-mean-for-investors/"><script>!function(e){function n(r){if(t[r])return t[r].exports;var o=t[r]={i:r,l:!1,exports:{}};return e[r].call(o.exports,o,o.exports,n),o.l=!0,o.exports}var r=window.webpackJsonp;window.webpackJsonp=function(t,c,a){for(var i,u,f,d=0,s=[];d<t.length;d++)u=t[d],o[u]&&s.push(o[u][0]),o[u]=0;for(i in c)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(c,i)&&(e[i]=c[i]);for(r&&r(t,c,a);s.length;)s.shift()();if(a)for(d=0;d<a.length;d++)f=n(n.s=a[d]);return f};var t={},o={6:0};n.e=function(e){function 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<div _ngcontent-c20="" innerhtml="<div id=&quot;attachment_326&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fbradmcmillan%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F09%2FVolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fbradmcmillan%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F09%2FVolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot;></progressive-image> 
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    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>Volatility Uncertainty</p> 
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 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Looking back over what’s happened in recent weeks, there’s no doubt we are in turbulent times. The U.S. is considering war with North Korea, as that country has launched a missile over Japan and tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb. And then there are the major storms to consider. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, causing massive devastation in Texas and Louisiana. Right on its heels we have Hurricane Irma approaching Florida, and it could be the most powerful Atlantic storm in history.</p> 
<p>Given all of this, should investors be doing something different? If so, what? Indeed, it’s important to respond to these questions. But to come up with an appropriate response, we must first analyze what actual changes have occurred in the economy and financial markets as a result of these events.</p> 
<p><strong>What’s changed?</strong></p> 
<p>Despite recent events, the situation with North Korea has been ongoing for decades—this is just the most recent phase. What has actually changed is not that major. A bigger bomb and somewhat better missiles do not put the U.S. at direct risk. In many ways, and regardless of media coverage, this is just a continuation of where we have been for some time.</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<p>As far as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there certainly have been consequential effects on people’s lives. Bigger picture, though, major storms are a regular feature of American history (just think of Sandy and Katrina). Despite the damage they cause, they do not change the economy in a meaningful way. So as bad as Harvey was, and as bad as Irma may be, at the national level they should not result in significant changes.</p> 
<p>And how did the markets—which respond to economic forces rather than human tragedy—react to the North Korean situation and the storms? Just as you might expect, they remained steady. In fact, U.S. markets remain close to their all-time highs, supported by strong economic and earnings growth.</p> 
<div class=&quot;vestpocket&quot; vest-pocket=&quot;&quot;></div> 
<p><strong>What can the past tell us?</strong></p> 
<p>To get an idea of whether the economy is likely to change going forward, we can look at the past to review how previous wars and storms have affected markets. Let’s start with wars.</p> 
<p>A war with North Korea would be devastating for South Korea and Asia as a whole, but it would have limited effects here in the U.S. In the past, wars have typically resulted in initial declines in the markets. On average, however, markets were up just three months later. As for ongoing effects on the economy, war has typically boosted economic growth, largely due to increased government spending. We certainly can’t rule out a worse experience this time. But history suggests that, as investors, we have no need to panic just yet.</p> 
<p>The same can be said for the effects of natural disasters. Of course, they will be devastating to local residents and economies—Houston will be years recovering from Harvey, as New Orleans was from Katrina. But at the national level, the effects are usually short lived, with an initial decrease in economic growth and employment due to the damage and disruption. This is usually followed by a recovery as the rebuilding process gets underway. In this case, the damage and the recovery period are likely to be longer than usual, with two of the worst storms in history hitting within days of each other. But the basic story should end up being the same. In fact, the recovery in Houston has already started as damage is assessed and repairs begun.</p> 
<p>While every war and natural disaster is different, and tragic for those most directly affected, we as a country have gotten to be very good at picking up the pieces and moving on. Remember, the U.S. has actually been at war for more than a decade in Afghanistan, and the economy has continued to grow. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were devastating, but we moved on and recovered. As long as the base economy remains sound (which it is), the country and the financial markets remain well positioned to ride out the damage.</p> 
<p><strong>What’s the right response?</strong></p> 
<p>I said at the start that recent events require a response, and they do. Please consider donating to the victims of the storms, and prepare yourself mentally for more worries from the North Korean situation. You should expect dramatic coverage of all this from the media. You should <em>not</em>, however, confuse emotional responses with what you should be doing with your investments.</p> 
<p>Despite the very real problems created by the geopolitical situation and the hurricanes, the U.S. economy and financial markets remain in solid condition and are likely to stay that way. There will be a time and a reason for worrying about our investments. But what we have right now does not meet those conditions. Let’s respond in a way that addresses the real problem, rather than being tricked into doing something we will later regret.</p>"><div id="attachment_326" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fbradmcmillan%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F09%2FVolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fbradmcmillan%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F09%2FVolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960"></progressive-image> 
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 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">Volatility Uncertainty</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p class="speakable-paragraph">Looking back over what’s happened in recent weeks, there’s no doubt we are in turbulent times. The U.S. is considering war with North Korea, as that country has launched a missile over Japan and tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb. And then there are the major storms to consider. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, causing massive devastation in Texas and Louisiana. Right on its heels we have Hurricane Irma approaching Florida, and it could be the most powerful Atlantic storm in history.</p> 
<p>Given all of this, should investors be doing something different? If so, what? Indeed, it’s important to respond to these questions. But to come up with an appropriate response, we must first analyze what actual changes have occurred in the economy and financial markets as a result of these events.</p> 
<p><strong>What’s changed?</strong></p> 
<p>Despite recent events, the situation with North Korea has been ongoing for decades—this is just the most recent phase. What has actually changed is not that major. A bigger bomb and somewhat better missiles do not put the U.S. at direct risk. In many ways, and regardless of media coverage, this is just a continuation of where we have been for some time.</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<p>As far as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there certainly have been consequential effects on people’s lives. Bigger picture, though, major storms are a regular feature of American history (just think of Sandy and Katrina). Despite the damage they cause, they do not change the economy in a meaningful way. So as bad as Harvey was, and as bad as Irma may be, at the national level they should not result in significant changes.</p> 
<p>And how did the markets—which respond to economic forces rather than human tragedy—react to the North Korean situation and the storms? Just as you might expect, they remained steady. In fact, U.S. markets remain close to their all-time highs, supported by strong economic and earnings growth.</p> 
<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> 
<p><strong>What can the past tell us?</strong></p> 
<p>To get an idea of whether the economy is likely to change going forward, we can look at the past to review how previous wars and storms have affected markets. Let’s start with wars.</p> 
<p>A war with North Korea would be devastating for South Korea and Asia as a whole, but it would have limited effects here in the U.S. In the past, wars have typically resulted in initial declines in the markets. On average, however, markets were up just three months later. As for ongoing effects on the economy, war has typically boosted economic growth, largely due to increased government spending. We certainly can’t rule out a worse experience this time. But history suggests that, as investors, we have no need to panic just yet.</p> 
<p>The same can be said for the effects of natural disasters. Of course, they will be devastating to local residents and economies—Houston will be years recovering from Harvey, as New Orleans was from Katrina. But at the national level, the effects are usually short lived, with an initial decrease in economic growth and employment due to the damage and disruption. This is usually followed by a recovery as the rebuilding process gets underway. In this case, the damage and the recovery period are likely to be longer than usual, with two of the worst storms in history hitting within days of each other. But the basic story should end up being the same. In fact, the recovery in Houston has already started as damage is assessed and repairs begun.</p> 
<p>While every war and natural disaster is different, and tragic for those most directly affected, we as a country have gotten to be very good at picking up the pieces and moving on. Remember, the U.S. has actually been at war for more than a decade in Afghanistan, and the economy has continued to grow. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were devastating, but we moved on and recovered. As long as the base economy remains sound (which it is), the country and the financial markets remain well positioned to ride out the damage.</p> 
<p><strong>What’s the right response?</strong></p> 
<p>I said at the start that recent events require a response, and they do. Please consider donating to the victims of the storms, and prepare yourself mentally for more worries from the North Korean situation. You should expect dramatic coverage of all this from the media. You should <em>not</em>, however, confuse emotional responses with what you should be doing with your investments.</p> 
<p>Despite the very real problems created by the geopolitical situation and the hurricanes, the U.S. economy and financial markets remain in solid condition and are likely to stay that way. There will be a time and a reason for worrying about our investments. But what we have right now does not meet those conditions. Let’s respond in a way that addresses the real problem, rather than being tricked into doing something we will later regret.</p></div>
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<!----><sig-file _ngcontent-c20=""><div innerhtml="<p><em>Commonwealth Financial Network&amp;#174;. Member www.finra.org / www.sipc.org. Please review our <a href=&quot;http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;>Terms of Use</a>. Please view my bio for disclosures.</em></p>"><p><em>Commonwealth Financial Network®. Member www.finra.org / www.sipc.org. Please review our <a href="http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html" target="_blank">Terms of Use</a>. Please view my bio for disclosures.</em></p></div></sig-file>
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	</app-root><script id="ng-templates-state" type="application/json">{&q;environmentName&q;:&q;prod&q;,&q;is_mobile&q;:false,&q;/forbesapi/content/uri.json?shortcodes=true&a;slides=true&a;type=ng&a;tickers=true&a;bvallpages=true&a;autovpslider=true&a;stream=true&a;compressimages=true&a;mobile=false&a;prgsmobileads=false&a;relativeVideo=true&a;videoplayertype=brightcove_perform_with_keyvalues&a;swimlane=&a;uri=http://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2017/09/08/from-north-korea-to-hurricanes-what-do-recent-events-mean-for-investors/&q;:{&q;content&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;content_59b2c2d964aaf93961c9b9b4&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/3835-323&q;,&q;source&q;:&q;blogs&q;,&q;author&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;From North Korea To Hurricanes: What Do Recent Events Mean For Investors?&q;,&q;date&q;:1504888860000,&q;body&q;:&q;&l;p&g;[caption id=\&q;attachment_326\&q; photocredit=\&q;Photo Credit: Shutterstock\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;640\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-326\&q; src=\&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/bradmcmillan/files/2017/09/VolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;Volatility Uncertainty\&q; data-height=\&q;427\&q; data-width=\&q;640\&q;&g; Volatility Uncertainty[/caption]\r\n\r\nLooking back over what&a;rsquo;s happened in recent weeks, there&a;rsquo;s no doubt we are in turbulent times. The U.S. is considering war with North Korea, as that country has launched a missile over Japan and tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb. And then there are the major storms to consider. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, causing massive devastation in Texas and Louisiana. Right on its heels we have Hurricane Irma approaching Florida, and it could be the most powerful Atlantic storm in history.\r\n\r\nGiven all of this, should investors be doing something different? If so, what? Indeed, it&a;rsquo;s important to respond to these questions. But to come up with an appropriate response, we must first analyze what actual changes have occurred in the economy and financial markets as a result of these events.\r\n\r\n&l;strong&g;What&a;rsquo;s changed?&l;/strong&g;\r\n\r\nDespite recent events, the situation with North Korea has been ongoing for decades&a;mdash;this is just the most recent phase. What has actually changed is not that major. A bigger bomb and somewhat better missiles do not put the U.S. at direct risk. In many ways, and regardless of media coverage, this is just a continuation of where we have been for some time.\r\n\r\nAs far as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there certainly have been consequential effects on people&a;rsquo;s lives. Bigger picture, though, major storms are a regular feature of American history (just think of Sandy and Katrina). Despite the damage they cause, they do not change the economy in a meaningful way. So as bad as Harvey was, and as bad as Irma may be, at the national level they should not result in significant changes.\r\n\r\nAnd how did the markets&a;mdash;which respond to economic forces rather than human tragedy&a;mdash;react to the North Korean situation and the storms? Just as you might expect, they remained steady. In fact, U.S. markets remain close to their all-time highs, supported by strong economic and earnings growth.\r\n\r\n&l;strong&g;What can the past tell us?&l;/strong&g;\r\n\r\nTo get an idea of whether the economy is likely to change going forward, we can look at the past to review how previous wars and storms have affected markets. Let&a;rsquo;s start with wars.\r\n\r\nA war with North Korea would be devastating for South Korea and Asia as a whole, but it would have limited effects here in the U.S. In the past, wars have typically resulted in initial declines in the markets. On average, however, markets were up just three months later. As for ongoing effects on the economy, war has typically boosted economic growth, largely due to increased government spending. We certainly can&a;rsquo;t rule out a worse experience this time. But history suggests that, as investors, we have no need to panic just yet.\r\n\r\nThe same can be said for the effects of natural disasters. Of course, they will be devastating to local residents and economies&a;mdash;Houston will be years recovering from Harvey, as New Orleans was from Katrina. But at the national level, the effects are usually short lived, with an initial decrease in economic growth and employment due to the damage and disruption. This is usually followed by a recovery as the rebuilding process gets underway. In this case, the damage and the recovery period are likely to be longer than usual, with two of the worst storms in history hitting within days of each other. But the basic story should end up being the same. In fact, the recovery in Houston has already started as damage is assessed and repairs begun.\r\n\r\nWhile every war and natural disaster is different, and tragic for those most directly affected, we as a country have gotten to be very good at picking up the pieces and moving on. Remember, the U.S. has actually been at war for more than a decade in Afghanistan, and the economy has continued to grow. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were devastating, but we moved on and recovered. As long as the base economy remains sound (which it is), the country and the financial markets remain well positioned to ride out the damage.\r\n\r\n&l;strong&g;What&a;rsquo;s the right response?&l;/strong&g;\r\n\r\nI said at the start that recent events require a response, and they do. Please consider donating to the victims of the storms, and prepare yourself mentally for more worries from the North Korean situation. You should expect dramatic coverage of all this from the media. You should &l;em&g;not&l;/em&g;, however, confuse emotional responses with what you should be doing with your investments.\r\n\r\nDespite the very real problems created by the geopolitical situation and the hurricanes, the U.S. economy and financial markets remain in solid condition and are likely to stay that way. There will be a time and a reason for worrying about our investments. But what we have right now does not meet those conditions. Let&a;rsquo;s respond in a way that addresses the real problem, rather than being tricked into doing something we will later regret.\r\n&l;!--donotpaginate--&g;&l;/p&g;&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;When it comes to investing in troubled times, Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan says looking to the past can shed some light on what may happen next.&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/bradmcmillan/files/2017/09/VolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;storyType&q;:&q;post&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2017/09/08/from-north-korea-to-hurricanes-what-do-recent-events-mean-for-investors/&q;,&q;comments&q;:[],&q;visible&q;:true,&q;authors&q;:[{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1768104&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-400x400.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-136x136.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-62x62.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-40x40.jpg&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;/sites/bradmcmillan/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;BradMcMillanCFA&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;email&q;:&q;ForbesBlog@commonwealth.com&q;,&q;tagName&q;:&q;I help Main Street investors understand and act on current news.&q;,&q;blog&q;:false,&q;timestamp&q;:1487268919003,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I help Main Street investors understand and act on current news.&q;,&q;webSite&q;:&q;http://www.commonwealth.com&q;,&q;blogName&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;topics&q;:[&q;markets&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;investing&q;,&q;washington&q;,&q;powering-productivity&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;europe&q;,&q;asia&q;],&q;description&q;:&q;I am the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, the nation’s largest privately owned independent broker/dealer–RIA. I chair the investment committee and am the spokesperson for the firm’s investment divisions. \r\n\r\nAs an independent, privately owned company, Commonwealth has no proprietary products and no vested interest in any particular market stance. Given this independence, my only goal is to help our advisors make the best decisions possible for their clients. My research concentrates on broad economic and market issues and how they affect the average investor.\r\n\r\nI appear regularly on CNBC, Fox Business News, and Bloomberg Radio and am quoted in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other national media. I also write a daily blog, The Independent Market Observer.\r\n\r\nI have degrees from Dartmouth College, MIT, and Boston College and am a designated member of the CFA Institute, the CAIA Association, and the Appraisal Institute.\r\n\r\nDisclosure\r\nCertain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nCommonwealth Financial Network®\r\nMember FINRA, SIPC\r\n\r\nPlease review our Terms of Use&q;,&q;recentActivityCount&q;:0,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1445868840000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3835&q;,&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1g3oiFG&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1435622533000,&q;slug&q;:&q;bradmcmillan&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:true,&q;sigfile&q;:&q;&l;em&g;Commonwealth Financial Network®. Member www.finra.org / www.sipc.org. Please review our &l;a href=\&q;http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Terms of Use&l;/a&g;. Please view my bio for disclosures.&l;/em&g;&q;,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;BradMcMillanCFA&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/780500834169790464/2WgEI3SF.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Chief Investment Officer, @CommonwealthBD. Blog: https://t.co/vUgIrnXde8. Member https://t.co/b6B3kZz7ha, https://t.co/boEjeCeQgM. Terms: https://t.co/XgItCBCxsc&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1331908863000,&q;location&q;:&q;Boston, MA, USA&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;http://t.co/wkp0VJs9Cq&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.commonwealth.com&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;commonwealth.com&q;,&q;verified&q;:false},&q;inactive&q;:true,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}},{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3835&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;http://blogs.forbes.com/bradmcmillan/profile/&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;tagName&q;:&q;I help Main Street investors understand and act on current news.&q;,&q;blog&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1473605109928,&q;topics&q;:[&q;markets&q;,&q;international&q;,&q;investing&q;,&q;washington&q;,&q;powering-productivity&q;,&q;stocks&q;,&q;asia-outlook&q;,&q;europe&q;,&q;asia&q;],&q;recentActivityCount&q;:0,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1445868840000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3835&q;,&q;primaryContributor&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1768104&q;,&q;primaryContributorData&q;:{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1768104&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-136x136.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-40x40.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-400x400.jpg&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/files/2015/06/bradmcmillan_avatar_1435608335-62x62.jpg&q;}],&q;blog&q;:false,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I help Main Street investors understand and act on current news.&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;I am the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, the nation’s largest privately owned independent broker/dealer–RIA. I chair the investment committee and am the spokesperson for the firm’s investment divisions. \r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nAs an independent, privately owned company, Commonwealth has no proprietary products and no vested interest in any particular market stance. Given this independence, my only goal is to help our advisors make the best decisions possible for their clients. My research concentrates on broad economic and market issues and how they affect the average investor.\r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nI appear regularly on CNBC, Fox Business News, and Bloomberg Radio and am quoted in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other national media. I also write a daily blog, The Independent Market Observer.\r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nI have degrees from Dartmouth College, MIT, and Boston College and am a designated member of the CFA Institute, the CAIA Association, and the Appraisal Institute.\r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nDisclosure\r\n&l;p&g;&l;i&g;Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.&l;/i&g;\r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\n\r\n\r\nCommonwealth Financial Network®&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nMember &l;a href=\&q;http://www.finra.org/\&q;&g;FINRA&l;/a&g;, &l;a href=\&q;http://www.sipc.org/\&q;&g;SIPC&l;/a&g;\r\n&l;br&g;&l;/br&g;\r\nPlease review our &l;a href=\&q;http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html\&q;&g;Terms of Use&l;/a&g;&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false},&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1g3oiFG&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1435608172000,&q;slug&q;:&q;bradmcmillan&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;inactive&q;:false,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}}],&q;channelSection&q;:[{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_62&q;}],&q;slug&q;:&q;Brad McMillan&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;sitePage&q;:&q;forbes.com/investing/blogs/bradmcmillan/index.html&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;investing&q;,&q;vestPocketList&q;:[{&q;type&q;:&q;slide&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/pictures/mlj45jggj/1-detroit/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/026M72T8ElbzS/&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;The 10 Most Dangerous U.S. Cities&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndSlideId/blog/slide/986-6336&q;,&q;count&q;:40957,&q;reason&q;:&q;MP-G&q;},{&q;type&q;:&q;magazine&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2018/02/13/trump-conflicts-of-interest-tenants-donald-business-organization-real-estate-assets-pay/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;/thumbnails/blog_2282/pt_2282_3640_o.jpg?t=1518523504&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Trump&s;s Biggest Potential Conflict Of Interest Is Hiding In Plain Sight&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/2282-3640&q;,&q;count&q;:15180,&q;reason&q;:&q;PV-H&q;}],&q;generatedId&q;:&q;glgi45gfg&q;,&q;manualDescription&q;:&q;When it comes to investing in troubled times, Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan says looking to the past can shed some light on what may happen next.&q;,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;vestPocketPosition&q;:6,&q;siteSlug&q;:&q;bradmcmillan&q;,&q;preview&q;:false,&q;showComments&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1504888950823,&q;statsEntities&q;:[{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Disaster_Accident&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Atlantic hurricane season&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Hurricane Katrina&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Storm&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Electrical Components &a; Equipment - NEC&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Internet Services - NEC&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;going forward&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Position&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;North Korea&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Asia&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Continent&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Katrina&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;New Orleans&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;City&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Louisiana&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Florida&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Japan&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;media coverage&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;South Korea&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Sandy&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;United States&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Afghanistan&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Houston&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;City&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;SHUTTERSTOCK&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas and Louisiana&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2}],&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;writtenByForbesStaff&q;:false,&q;templateType&q;:&q;standard&q;,&q;enableSigfile&q;:true,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_2&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Investing&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/investing&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Investing&q;},&q;pages&q;:[&q;&l;div id=\&q;attachment_326\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-326\&q; src=\&q;//blogs-images.forbes.com/bradmcmillan/files/2017/09/VolatilityUncertainty_Forbes_640x427.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;Volatility Uncertainty\&q; data-height=\&q;427\&q; data-width=\&q;640\&q; /&g; \n  &l;small class=\&q;article-photo-credit\&q;&g;Photo Credit: Shutterstock&l;/small&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;Volatility Uncertainty&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Looking back over what’s happened in recent weeks, there’s no doubt we are in turbulent times. The U.S. is considering war with North Korea, as that country has launched a missile over Japan and tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb. And then there are the major storms to consider. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, causing massive devastation in Texas and Louisiana. Right on its heels we have Hurricane Irma approaching Florida, and it could be the most powerful Atlantic storm in history.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Given all of this, should investors be doing something different? If so, what? Indeed, it’s important to respond to these questions. But to come up with an appropriate response, we must first analyze what actual changes have occurred in the economy and financial markets as a result of these events.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;strong&g;What’s changed?&l;/strong&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Despite recent events, the situation with North Korea has been ongoing for decades—this is just the most recent phase. What has actually changed is not that major. A bigger bomb and somewhat better missiles do not put the U.S. at direct risk. In many ways, and regardless of media coverage, this is just a continuation of where we have been for some time.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;As far as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there certainly have been consequential effects on people’s lives. Bigger picture, though, major storms are a regular feature of American history (just think of Sandy and Katrina). Despite the damage they cause, they do not change the economy in a meaningful way. So as bad as Harvey was, and as bad as Irma may be, at the national level they should not result in significant changes.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;And how did the markets—which respond to economic forces rather than human tragedy—react to the North Korean situation and the storms? Just as you might expect, they remained steady. In fact, U.S. markets remain close to their all-time highs, supported by strong economic and earnings growth.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;strong&g;What can the past tell us?&l;/strong&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;To get an idea of whether the economy is likely to change going forward, we can look at the past to review how previous wars and storms have affected markets. Let’s start with wars.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;A war with North Korea would be devastating for South Korea and Asia as a whole, but it would have limited effects here in the U.S. In the past, wars have typically resulted in initial declines in the markets. On average, however, markets were up just three months later. As for ongoing effects on the economy, war has typically boosted economic growth, largely due to increased government spending. We certainly can’t rule out a worse experience this time. But history suggests that, as investors, we have no need to panic just yet.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The same can be said for the effects of natural disasters. Of course, they will be devastating to local residents and economies—Houston will be years recovering from Harvey, as New Orleans was from Katrina. But at the national level, the effects are usually short lived, with an initial decrease in economic growth and employment due to the damage and disruption. This is usually followed by a recovery as the rebuilding process gets underway. In this case, the damage and the recovery period are likely to be longer than usual, with two of the worst storms in history hitting within days of each other. But the basic story should end up being the same. In fact, the recovery in Houston has already started as damage is assessed and repairs begun.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;While every war and natural disaster is different, and tragic for those most directly affected, we as a country have gotten to be very good at picking up the pieces and moving on. Remember, the U.S. has actually been at war for more than a decade in Afghanistan, and the economy has continued to grow. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were devastating, but we moved on and recovered. As long as the base economy remains sound (which it is), the country and the financial markets remain well positioned to ride out the damage.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;strong&g;What’s the right response?&l;/strong&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;I said at the start that recent events require a response, and they do. Please consider donating to the victims of the storms, and prepare yourself mentally for more worries from the North Korean situation. You should expect dramatic coverage of all this from the media. You should &l;em&g;not&l;/em&g;, however, confuse emotional responses with what you should be doing with your investments.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;Despite the very real problems created by the geopolitical situation and the hurricanes, the U.S. economy and financial markets remain in solid condition and are likely to stay that way. There will be a time and a reason for worrying about our investments. But what we have right now does not meet those conditions. 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