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						<h1 id="title-142093" class="blog-title rip" itemprop="name">Climate change made every stage of Hurricane Harvey more horrific</h1>

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			<p>&#8220;This event is unprecedented &amp; all impacts are unknown &amp; beyond anything experienced,&#8221; the National Weather Service (NWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169">tweeted</a> Sunday along with a projected precipitation map for Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>Although many meteorologists have said they had never seen such a storm &#8212; or such a tweet from the NWS &#8212; before, the fact is that Harvey is exactly the kind of off-the-charts hurricane we can expect to see more often because of climate change.</p>
<p>&#8220;Climate change worsened the unprecedented disaster unfolding in Houston from Hurricane Harvey,&#8221; as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1515449771844553">climatologist Michael Mann</a> said in an email to ThinkProgress. &#8220;And unrestrained climate change means we will see many more Harveys in the future.&#8221;</p>
<p>Like a <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/08/421711/video-steroids-baseball-climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">baseball player on steroids</a>, our climate system is breaking records at an unnatural pace. Global warming is juicing storms &#8212; a key reason Harvey is the second 1-in-500-year superstorm in 16 years (and<a href="http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/"> fourth 100-year rainstorm</a> since spring 2017). And like a baseball player on steroids, it’s the wrong question to ask whether any given home run is “caused” by steroids.</p>
<p>Every stage of Harvey &#8212; the rapid intensification that makes for a forecasting nightmare, the brutal storm surge, and the unprecedented rainfall &#8212; were worsened by global warming. In fact, there&#8217;s been so much rain, the National Weather Service had to update their color maps to cover it all.</p>
<img class="wp-image-686618 size-large" sizes="1024px" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/harvey2.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w" alt="" width="1024" />CREDIT: National Weather Service
<p>Hurricanes “extract heat energy from the ocean to convert it to the power of wind, and the warmer the ocean is, the stronger a hurricane can get if all other conditions that it needs to exist are present,” meteorologist and former hurricane hunter Jeff Masters <a href="http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=16-P13-00036&amp;segmentID=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">explained last month</a> on Living on Earth. “So, scientists are confident that as we continue to heat up the oceans, we’re going to see more of these high-end perfect storms.”</p>
<p>Let’s look at some of the latest climate science. The first stage of a hurricane is formation and intensification. Harvey spun up from a tropical depression to a Category 4 superstorm in two days as it crossed Gulf of Mexico waters that were <a href="http://www.climatesignals.org/node/7158">2.7 &#8211; 7.2°F warmer</a> than &#8220;normal&#8221; (the 1961-1990 baseline).</p>
<p>The latest research says global warming is driving this trend. “Storms are intensifying at a much more rapid pace than they used to 25 years back,” <a href="http://www.livescience.com/23003-hurricanes-increase-intensity-global-warming.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">explained</a> the author of a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051700/abstract" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2012 study</a>. “They are getting stronger more quickly and also [to a] higher category. The intensity as well as the rate of intensity is increasing.”</p>
<p>This warming-driven trend toward more rapid intensification is very worrisome. “The vast majority (79 percent) of major storms&#8221; are rapid intensification storms,” and “the most intense storms&#8221; are those that undergo rapid intensification according to a 2016 <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10625" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study</a>. And rapid intensification makes it much harder to predict and plan for superstorms.</p>
<p>One <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2013 paper</a> found that “since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Category 4–5 hurricanes of 25–30 percent per °C of anthropogenic global warming.” Another <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00262.1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2013 paper</a> concluded that “dramatic changes in the frequency distribution of lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) have occurred in the North Atlantic,” and the stronger hurricanes “have become more intense.” A 2015 <a href="http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrazaElsner2015.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study</a> on the impact of sea-surface temperatures on the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic found &#8220;intensification increases by 16 percent for every 1°C increase in mean SST.”</p>
<div>&#8220;We have high confidence that hurricane wind speeds will increase because of climate change warming the ocean and boosting fuel for hurricanes,&#8221; climatologist James Done said in a message to ThinkProgress. &#8220;In recent decades we have seen an increase in the proportion of hurricanes that reach category 4 or 5. It looks like this trend will continue. So, for every hurricane that comes along it will be more likely to be a category 4 or 5 than in past decades.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>Second, the second stage is landfall, with its terrible wind damage and its most devastating impact, the storm surge, which has been worsened by warming-driven sea level rise. A <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/109/48/19601.abstract" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2012 study</a> found that landfalling hurricanes cause the biggest storm surges, that hurricanes with the biggest storm surges caused the most destruction, and that Katrina-sized surges “have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years.”</div>
<div></div>
<div>A 2013 <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/14/5369.abstract" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paper</a> found that the most extreme storm surge events “are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina-magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century.”</div>

<div><img srcset="https://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/1fxO5UfKHB_pSCUj4CX_wPg-1.jpeg?w=500&amp;h=667&amp;crop=1" alt="Bloomberg Businessweek cover story Sandy’s many links to global warming" /></div>BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK COVER STORY SANDY’S MANY LINKS TO GLOBAL WARMING
<p>While we aren’t seeing more total hurricanes, we are seeing more of the Category 4 or 5 super-hurricanes, the ones that historically have done the most damage and destroyed entire coastal cities. We’re also seeing a sharp rise in the most damaging storm surges, whereby even a Category 1 hurricane (such as Sandy) can cause unprecedented damage.</p>
<p>On our current path of unrestricted carbon pollution, NOAA researchers have <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/noaa-warming-driven-sea-level-rise-to-make-sandy-type-storm-surges-the-norm-on-east-coast-667344a27330#.yil7stfuo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">determined</a> that parts of the East Coast would see Sandy-level storm surges every year by mid-century.</p>
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	<a href="https://thinkprogress.org/what-hurricane-drought-4027e7fd9617/"></p>
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<h3>We’re In A ‘Hurricane Drought’? Tell That To Victims Of Sandy, Irene And Ike.</h3>
<p>Media pushes meme that ignores some of our worst superstorms.</p>
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<p>After landfall, the winds die down, the storm surge recedes and it is rainfall that does the most damage. As climatologist Katharine Hayhoe <a href="https://twitter.com/KHayhoe/status/900810732635336705">tweeted</a> last week, &#8220;As the world warms, evaporation speeds up. So on avg there&#8217;s more water vapour for a storm to sweep up &amp; dump now, compared to 70 years ago.&#8221;</p>
<p>In big slow-moving storms like Harvey, the water waver swept in can be even higher. As climatologist Kevin Trenberth told the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/did-climate-change-intensify-hurricane-harvey/538158/">Atlantic</a>, “the human contribution can be up to 30 percent or so up to the total rainfall coming out of the storm. It may have been a strong storm, and it may have caused a lot of problems anyway &#8212; but [human-caused climate change] amplifies the damage considerably.”</p>
<p>This is the phase of Harvey we&#8217;re now in. And while it&#8217;s already been the worst storm Houston has ever seen, there is still more rain to come.</p><div><a href="https://thinkprogress.org/climate-change-made-harvey-worse-099574a6cba7/" target="_blank">Original link</a></div><div>Original author: Joe Romm</div>
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