<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><base href="/"><title>Hurricane Harvey Is A 'One-Two' Punch And The 'Two' (Rain) Is The Bigger Problem</title><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1,user-scalable=no"><link rel="canonical" itemprop="url" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/26/hurricane-harvey-is-a-one-two-punch-and-the-two-rain-is-the-bigger-problem/"><script>!function(e){function n(r){if(t[r])return t[r].exports;var o=t[r]={i:r,l:!1,exports:{}};return e[r].call(o.exports,o,o.exports,n),o.l=!0,o.exports}var r=window.webpackJsonp;window.webpackJsonp=function(t,c,a){for(var i,u,f,d=0,s=[];d<t.length;d++)u=t[d],o[u]&&s.push(o[u][0]),o[u]=0;for(i in c)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(c,i)&&(e[i]=c[i]);for(r&&r(t,c,a);s.length;)s.shift()();if(a)for(d=0;d<a.length;d++)f=n(n.s=a[d]);return f};var t={},o={6:0};n.e=function(e){function 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<div _ngcontent-c20="" innerhtml="<p>I was planning to watch the coverage of Hurricane Harvey today and help where I can with media interviews. However, I was seeing a disturbing narrative evolve in social and traditional media about Hurricane Harvey. &amp;nbsp;There was a dangerous focus, in my opinion, on the storm &quot;weakening to only a Category 1.&quot; &amp;nbsp;While that is good news and should be reported, I fear that it provides a false sense of security from the looming and likely greater threat. &amp;nbsp;This is an exceptional event that will possibly be discussed with the likes of Sandy or Katrina because the &quot;rainfall and flooding&quot; part of the story is just beginning.</p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_2954&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2FDIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2FDIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot;></progressive-image> 
  <small class=&quot;article-photo-credit&quot;>NOAA NHC</small> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=&quot;&quot;> 
  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>Rainfall potential over the next 7 days from Harvey</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Hurricane Harvey made landfall (twice) Friday evening east of Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 storm. Part of me was actually nervous about the rapid strengthening to a Category 3/4 storm because I know the immediate danger that this type of storm can bring in terms of storm surge, wind, and tornadoes. Hurricane Harvey is only the fourth category 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1970 according to Colorado State University hurricane expert, <a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/philklotzbach&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Dr. Phil Klotzbach</a>. The other category 4 (or higher) storms were&amp;nbsp;Hugo, Andrew and Charley.</p> 
<p>The other part of my nervousness was this tendency for the public and media to latch onto the inevitable fact that the storm will &quot;weaken&quot; from a major hurricane to a weaker one or tropical storm. Therein is the problem. As devastating as a landfalling major hurricane is, many of us have always been more concerned about the days of rainfall. It is why my colleagues have to be very careful about how Harvey's evolution is being communicated. We cannot cover this storm just as a &quot;landfalling hurricane.&quot; It needs to be covered as a &quot;lingering, unprecedented flood event.&quot; <a href=&quot;https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>The excellent Tropical Tidbits website</a> provides access to the weather models. If you visit the site, you can see for yourself how the models keep Harvey around for almost a week. &amp;nbsp;The <a href=&quot;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/260854.shtml?&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>National Hurricane Center public advisory on the morning of Saturday Aug. 26 warned</a>,</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through NEXT Wednesday...Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life threatening flooding.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>In this case, the &quot;two&quot; in the cliche &quot;one-two punch&quot; is the the sustained threat. I fielded media interviews throughout the day Friday and at times, I sensed that the reporters really were not grasping this fact. I also got this sense as I monitored comments from friends in social media. It is a challenge because five-to-seven&amp;nbsp;days worth of rain from a tropical storm spinning over Texas is not as telegenic or &quot;sexy&quot; as an iconic category 4 hurricane making landfall. I get it. I do enough media to understand the &quot;story.&quot; However, the historic rainfall potential is jaw-dropping and a direct threat to the human life. Since Friday evening, some parts of coastal Texas have already received over 1 foot of rainfall, and we still have almost a week of this to go.</p> 
<div class=&quot;vestpocket&quot; vest-pocket=&quot;&quot;></div> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_41507589&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507589%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507589%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale&quot;></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=&quot;&quot;> 
  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>Vehicles sit in traffic during evacuation ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Galveston, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. &amp;nbsp;Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p><a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/WxComm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Dr. Gina Eosco, a social scientist with Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs,</a> is an expert on communication and perception related to weather information. She says&amp;nbsp;information on impacts and track information are more accessible, but she has concerns about rainfall messaging,</p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>When I looked for rain graphics the search took longer than expected. I also observed that (many) Twitter feed only shared the track. NO rain. The weather community shared/discussed the rain, but did we do it too much internally? Did we push it externally? I think the answer is yes. Rain simply isn't as sexy. It rains all the time...But not like this! I also feel we have to determine better ways of conveying amounts of rain to make it more concrete. I don't have easy answers yet, but we're repeatedly seeing this as a challenge...Louisiana last year, Matthew, now Harvey.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>I agree with Dr. Eosco, and <a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/18/hurricanes-and-tornadoes-have-them-is-it-time-for-a-flood-scale/#479bdeba4940&quot; target=&quot;_self&quot;>it is why I tried to provoke discussion in Forbes last year about a future Flood Scale similar to the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita Scale</a>.</p> 
<p>The other challenge is the &quot;meh, we get floods all of the time&quot; mentality. No, no you have not.&amp;nbsp;<a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/14/the-psychology-of-dealing-with-unprecedented-events-like-the-louisiana-floods/#3861634e7ae0&quot; target=&quot;_self&quot;>As I have written before in <em>Forbes</em></a>, humans often have a difficult time placing exceptional events (likely no experience with) within the proper context of their actual experiences (normal rain and flood events). Indeed, Houston floods often, but the creeping nature of five-to-seven&amp;nbsp;days of rainfall culminating in 2 to 4 feet of rainfall may be hard to grasp. This fact and optimism bias (&quot;I know there is danger in driving through that flooded street, but I will be OK this time&quot;) foster dangerous outcomes.</p> 
<p>My colleague <a href=&quot;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201205_bill_read.php&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;>Bill Read</a> is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. He resides in Houston and has been monitoring Harvey. He told me,</p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>Here's the challenge. Local officials were emphasizing that people should NOT evacuate for the heavy rain threat, and I think for good reason. Because of our topography, feet of rain would put millions of people's homes at risk. Big floods over the past 20 years have extended outside the 100 year flood plain and in some cases outside the 500 year event. The &quot;where and how fast the rain will fall&quot; won't be known except in the short term so giving specific flood warning as to who is impacted is not possible this far in advance. Exactly who would you tell to leave? As the Rita evacuation (should have) taught us, you cannot efficiently move 2 million people from Houston area.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>Bill Read also made the point that deaths from recent floods in Houston were all people who drove into flooded roadways. He ended his statement to me by saying, &quot;it is a bad situation with no easy answer.&quot;&amp;nbsp;I will close by noting that the impact of Harvey is really just beginning and will not be fully realized until a week or so from now. Stay alert and safe.</p> 
<div id=&quot;attachment_2955&quot; class=&quot;wp-caption alignnone&quot;> 
 <div class=&quot;article-body-image&quot;> 
  <progressive-image class=&quot;progressive-placeholder&quot; src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2Fscreenshot_110.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot; low-res-src=&quot;https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2Fscreenshot_110.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960&quot;></progressive-image> 
  <small class=&quot;article-photo-credit&quot;>NOAA and NWS</small> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=&quot;&quot;> 
  <div class=&quot;caption-container&quot; ng-class=&quot;caption_state&quot;> 
   <fbs-accordion current=&quot;0&quot;> 
    <p class=&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;>NWS radar on Saturday Morning in Corpus Christi</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>&amp;nbsp;</p>"><p class="speakable-paragraph">I was planning to watch the coverage of Hurricane Harvey today and help where I can with media interviews. However, I was seeing a disturbing narrative evolve in social and traditional media about Hurricane Harvey. &nbsp;There was a dangerous focus, in my opinion, on the storm "weakening to only a Category 1." &nbsp;While that is good news and should be reported, I fear that it provides a false sense of security from the looming and likely greater threat. &nbsp;This is an exceptional event that will possibly be discussed with the likes of Sandy or Katrina because the "rainfall and flooding" part of the story is just beginning.</p> 
<div id="attachment_2954" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2FDIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarshallshepherd%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F08%2FDIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960"></progressive-image> 
  <small class="article-photo-credit">NOAA NHC</small> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">Rainfall potential over the next 7 days from Harvey</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p>Hurricane Harvey made landfall (twice) Friday evening east of Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 storm. Part of me was actually nervous about the rapid strengthening to a Category 3/4 storm because I know the immediate danger that this type of storm can bring in terms of storm surge, wind, and tornadoes. Hurricane Harvey is only the fourth category 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1970 according to Colorado State University hurricane expert, <a href="https://twitter.com/philklotzbach" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dr. Phil Klotzbach</a>. The other category 4 (or higher) storms were&nbsp;Hugo, Andrew and Charley.</p> 
<p>The other part of my nervousness was this tendency for the public and media to latch onto the inevitable fact that the storm will "weaken" from a major hurricane to a weaker one or tropical storm. Therein is the problem. As devastating as a landfalling major hurricane is, many of us have always been more concerned about the days of rainfall. It is why my colleagues have to be very careful about how Harvey's evolution is being communicated. We cannot cover this storm just as a "landfalling hurricane." It needs to be covered as a "lingering, unprecedented flood event." <a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">The excellent Tropical Tidbits website</a> provides access to the weather models. If you visit the site, you can see for yourself how the models keep Harvey around for almost a week. &nbsp;The <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/260854.shtml?" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">National Hurricane Center public advisory on the morning of Saturday Aug. 26 warned</a>,</p> 
<p> 
 </p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through NEXT Wednesday...Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life threatening flooding.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>In this case, the "two" in the cliche "one-two punch" is the the sustained threat. I fielded media interviews throughout the day Friday and at times, I sensed that the reporters really were not grasping this fact. I also got this sense as I monitored comments from friends in social media. It is a challenge because five-to-seven&nbsp;days worth of rain from a tropical storm spinning over Texas is not as telegenic or "sexy" as an iconic category 4 hurricane making landfall. I get it. I do enough media to understand the "story." However, the historic rainfall potential is jaw-dropping and a direct threat to the human life. Since Friday evening, some parts of coastal Texas have already received over 1 foot of rainfall, and we still have almost a week of this to go.</p> 
<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> 
<div id="attachment_41507589" class="wp-caption alignnone"> 
 <div class="article-body-image"> 
  <progressive-image class="progressive-placeholder" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507589%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale" low-res-src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/100x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F41507589%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale"></progressive-image> 
 </div> 
 <div article-image-caption=""> 
  <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> 
   <fbs-accordion current="0"> 
    <p class="wp-caption-text">Vehicles sit in traffic during evacuation ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Galveston, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. &nbsp;Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg</p> 
   </fbs-accordion> 
  </div> 
 </div> 
</div> 
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/WxComm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dr. Gina Eosco, a social scientist with Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs,</a> is an expert on communication and perception related to weather information. She says&nbsp;information on impacts and track information are more accessible, but she has concerns about rainfall messaging,</p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>When I looked for rain graphics the search took longer than expected. I also observed that (many) Twitter feed only shared the track. NO rain. The weather community shared/discussed the rain, but did we do it too much internally? Did we push it externally? I think the answer is yes. Rain simply isn't as sexy. It rains all the time...But not like this! I also feel we have to determine better ways of conveying amounts of rain to make it more concrete. I don't have easy answers yet, but we're repeatedly seeing this as a challenge...Louisiana last year, Matthew, now Harvey.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>I agree with Dr. Eosco, and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/18/hurricanes-and-tornadoes-have-them-is-it-time-for-a-flood-scale/#479bdeba4940" target="_self">it is why I tried to provoke discussion in Forbes last year about a future Flood Scale similar to the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita Scale</a>.</p> 
<p>The other challenge is the "meh, we get floods all of the time" mentality. No, no you have not.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/14/the-psychology-of-dealing-with-unprecedented-events-like-the-louisiana-floods/#3861634e7ae0" target="_self">As I have written before in <em>Forbes</em></a>, humans often have a difficult time placing exceptional events (likely no experience with) within the proper context of their actual experiences (normal rain and flood events). Indeed, Houston floods often, but the creeping nature of five-to-seven&nbsp;days of rainfall culminating in 2 to 4 feet of rainfall may be hard to grasp. This fact and optimism bias ("I know there is danger in driving through that flooded street, but I will be OK this time") foster dangerous outcomes.</p> 
<p>My colleague <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201205_bill_read.php" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bill Read</a> is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. He resides in Houston and has been monitoring Harvey. He told me,</p> 
<blockquote> 
 <p>Here's the challenge. Local officials were emphasizing that people should NOT evacuate for the heavy rain threat, and I think for good reason. Because of our topography, feet of rain would put millions of people's homes at risk. Big floods over the past 20 years have extended outside the 100 year flood plain and in some cases outside the 500 year event. The "where and how fast the rain will fall" won't be known except in the short term so giving specific flood warning as to who is impacted is not possible this far in advance. Exactly who would you tell to leave? As the Rita evacuation (should have) taught us, you cannot efficiently move 2 million people from Houston area.</p> 
</blockquote> 
<p>Bill Read also made the point that deaths from recent floods in Houston were all people who drove into flooded roadways. He ended his statement to me by saying, "it is a bad situation with no easy answer."&nbsp;I will close by noting that the impact of Harvey is really just beginning and will not be fully realized until a week or so from now. Stay alert and safe.</p> 
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	</app-root><script id="ng-templates-state" type="application/json">{&q;environmentName&q;:&q;prod&q;,&q;is_mobile&q;:false,&q;/forbesapi/content/uri.json?shortcodes=true&a;slides=true&a;type=ng&a;tickers=true&a;bvallpages=true&a;autovpslider=true&a;stream=true&a;compressimages=true&a;mobile=false&a;prgsmobileads=false&a;relativeVideo=true&a;videoplayertype=brightcove_perform_with_keyvalues&a;swimlane=&a;uri=http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/26/hurricane-harvey-is-a-one-two-punch-and-the-two-rain-is-the-bigger-problem/&q;:{&q;content&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;content_59a15bc864aaf9435aebc167&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/3892-2952&q;,&q;source&q;:&q;blogs&q;,&q;author&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Hurricane Harvey Is A &s;One-Two&s; Punch And The &s;Two&s; (Rain) Is The Bigger Problem&q;,&q;date&q;:1503751380000,&q;body&q;:&q;&l;p&g;I was planning to watch the coverage of Hurricane Harvey today and help where I can with media interviews. However, I was seeing a disturbing narrative evolve in social and traditional media about Hurricane Harvey. &a;nbsp;There was a dangerous focus, in my opinion, on the storm \&q;weakening to only a Category 1.\&q; &a;nbsp;While that is good news and should be reported, I fear that it provides a false sense of security from the looming and likely greater threat. &a;nbsp;This is an exceptional event that will possibly be discussed with the likes of Sandy or Katrina because the \&q;rainfall and flooding\&q; part of the story is just beginning.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_2954\&q; photocredit=\&q;NOAA NHC\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;895\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-2954\&q; src=\&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/08/DIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;\&q; data-height=\&q;716\&q; data-width=\&q;895\&q;&g; Rainfall potential over the next 7 days from Harvey[/caption]\r\n\r\nHurricane Harvey made landfall (twice) Friday evening east of Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 storm. Part of me was actually nervous about the rapid strengthening to a Category 3/4 storm because I know the immediate danger that this type of storm can bring in terms of storm surge, wind, and tornadoes. Hurricane Harvey is only the fourth category 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1970 according to Colorado State University hurricane expert, &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/philklotzbach\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Dr. Phil Klotzbach&l;/a&g;. The other category 4 (or higher) storms were&a;nbsp;Hugo, Andrew and Charley.\r\n\r\nThe other part of my nervousness was this tendency for the public and media to latch onto the inevitable fact that the storm will \&q;weaken\&q; from a major hurricane to a weaker one or tropical storm. Therein is the problem. As devastating as a landfalling major hurricane is, many of us have always been more concerned about the days of rainfall. It is why my colleagues have to be very careful about how Harvey&s;s evolution is being communicated. We cannot cover this storm just as a \&q;landfalling hurricane.\&q; It needs to be covered as a \&q;lingering, unprecedented flood event.\&q; &l;a href=\&q;https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;The excellent Tropical Tidbits website&l;/a&g; provides access to the weather models. If you visit the site, you can see for yourself how the models keep Harvey around for almost a week. &a;nbsp;The &l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/260854.shtml?\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;National Hurricane Center public advisory on the morning of Saturday Aug. 26 warned&l;/a&g;,\r\n&l;/p&g;&l;blockquote&g;Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through NEXT Wednesday...Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life threatening flooding.&l;/blockquote&g;\r\nIn this case, the \&q;two\&q; in the cliche \&q;one-two punch\&q; is the the sustained threat. I fielded media interviews throughout the day Friday and at times, I sensed that the reporters really were not grasping this fact. I also got this sense as I monitored comments from friends in social media. It is a challenge because five-to-seven&a;nbsp;days worth of rain from a tropical storm spinning over Texas is not as telegenic or \&q;sexy\&q; as an iconic category 4 hurricane making landfall. I get it. I do enough media to understand the \&q;story.\&q; However, the historic rainfall potential is jaw-dropping and a direct threat to the human life. Since Friday evening, some parts of coastal Texas have already received over 1 foot of rainfall, and we still have almost a week of this to go.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_41507589\&q; photocredit=\&q;\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;960\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507589\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507589/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;1440\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q;&g; Vehicles sit in traffic during evacuation ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Galveston, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. &a;nbsp;Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg[/caption]\r\n\r\n&l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/WxComm\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Dr. Gina Eosco, a social scientist with Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs,&l;/a&g; is an expert on communication and perception related to weather information. She says&a;nbsp;information on impacts and track information are more accessible, but she has concerns about rainfall messaging,\r\n&l;blockquote&g;When I looked for rain graphics the search took longer than expected. I also observed that (many) Twitter feed only shared the track. NO rain. The weather community shared/discussed the rain, but did we do it too much internally? Did we push it externally? I think the answer is yes. Rain simply isn&s;t as sexy. It rains all the time...But not like this! I also feel we have to determine better ways of conveying amounts of rain to make it more concrete. I don&s;t have easy answers yet, but we&s;re repeatedly seeing this as a challenge...Louisiana last year, Matthew, now Harvey.&l;/blockquote&g;\r\nI agree with Dr. Eosco, and &l;a href=\&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/18/hurricanes-and-tornadoes-have-them-is-it-time-for-a-flood-scale/#479bdeba4940\&q;&g;it is why I tried to provoke discussion in Forbes last year about a future Flood Scale similar to the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita Scale&l;/a&g;.\r\n\r\nThe other challenge is the \&q;meh, we get floods all of the time\&q; mentality. No, no you have not.&a;nbsp;&l;a href=\&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/14/the-psychology-of-dealing-with-unprecedented-events-like-the-louisiana-floods/#3861634e7ae0\&q;&g;As I have written before in &l;em&g;Forbes&l;/em&g;&l;/a&g;, humans often have a difficult time placing exceptional events (likely no experience with) within the proper context of their actual experiences (normal rain and flood events). Indeed, Houston floods often, but the creeping nature of five-to-seven&a;nbsp;days of rainfall culminating in 2 to 4 feet of rainfall may be hard to grasp. This fact and optimism bias (\&q;I know there is danger in driving through that flooded street, but I will be OK this time\&q;) foster dangerous outcomes.\r\n\r\nMy colleague &l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201205_bill_read.php\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q;&g;Bill Read&l;/a&g; is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. He resides in Houston and has been monitoring Harvey. He told me,\r\n&l;blockquote&g;Here&s;s the challenge. Local officials were emphasizing that people should NOT evacuate for the heavy rain threat, and I think for good reason. Because of our topography, feet of rain would put millions of people&s;s homes at risk. Big floods over the past 20 years have extended outside the 100 year flood plain and in some cases outside the 500 year event. The \&q;where and how fast the rain will fall\&q; won&s;t be known except in the short term so giving specific flood warning as to who is impacted is not possible this far in advance. Exactly who would you tell to leave? As the Rita evacuation (should have) taught us, you cannot efficiently move 2 million people from Houston area.&l;/blockquote&g;\r\nBill Read also made the point that deaths from recent floods in Houston were all people who drove into flooded roadways. He ended his statement to me by saying, \&q;it is a bad situation with no easy answer.\&q;&a;nbsp;I will close by noting that the impact of Harvey is really just beginning and will not be fully realized until a week or so from now. Stay alert and safe.\r\n&l;!--donotpaginate--&g;\r\n\r\n[caption id=\&q;attachment_2955\&q; photocredit=\&q;NOAA and NWS\&q;  align=\&q;\&q; width=\&q;765\&q;]&l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-2955\&q; src=\&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/08/screenshot_110.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;\&q; data-height=\&q;558\&q; data-width=\&q;765\&q;&g; NWS radar on Saturday Morning in Corpus Christi[/caption]\r\n\r\n&a;nbsp;&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Yes, Hurricane Harvey is weakening but the real danger from the storm is likely just beginning. Category 4 winds may pale in comparison to the week-long flood threat.&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/08/DIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpeg&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;storyType&q;:&q;post&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/26/hurricane-harvey-is-a-one-two-punch-and-the-two-rain-is-the-bigger-problem/&q;,&q;comments&q;:[],&q;visible&q;:true,&q;authors&q;:[{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1808880&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=400&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=136&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=62&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=40&a;d=mm&a;r=g&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Contributor&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;/sites/marshallshepherd/&q;,&q;twitterName&q;:&q;@DrShepherd2013&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;email&q;:&q;marshgeo@gmail.com&q;,&q;blog&q;:false,&q;timestamp&q;:1508438091958,&q;webSite&q;:&q;http://drmarshallshepherd.com&q;,&q;blogName&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;topics&q;:[&q;powering-productivity&q;,&q;health&q;,&q;science&q;,&q;tech&q;,&q;lifestyle&q;,&q;green-tech&q;],&q;description&q;:&q;Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Sunday talk show Weather Geeks, Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a Research Meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. In 2004, he was honored at the White House with a prestigious PECASE award. Shepherd is frequently sought as an expert on weather and climate by major media outlets, the White House, and Congress. He has over 80 peer-reviewed scholarly publications and numerous editorials.  Dr. Shepherd received his B.S., M.S. and PhD in physical meteorology from Florida State University.&q;,&q;recentActivityCount&q;:0,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447787820000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:0,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3892&q;,&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1SlMgxf&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;technology&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;science&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1438315538000,&q;slug&q;:&q;marshallshepherd&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;primarySectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;facebookPage&q;:&q;https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dr-Marshall-Shepherd-Host-of-WxGeeks-2013-AMS-President/442625869145900?fref=ts&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;sigfile&q;:&q;&l;em&g;Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Dir., Atmospheric Sciences Program/GA Athletic Assoc. Distinguished Professor (Univ of Georgia), Host, Weather Channel&s;s Sunday Talk Show, Weather (Wx) Geeks, 2013 AMS President&l;/em&g;&q;,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;forbesTwitterProfile&q;:{&q;screenName&q;:&q;DrShepherd2013&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;profileImageUrl&q;:&q;http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/627445761949634560/_G7dcD2F.jpg&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;UGA Professor and Atm Sci Prog Dir. Host, Weather Channel&s;s WxGeeks, fmr NASA scientist, Alpha, 3x FSU Alum, Forbes Contributor, views mine RT not endorsement&q;,&q;createdDate&q;:1347102549000,&q;location&q;:&q;&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;https://t.co/0SdGGOugfg&q;,&q;expandedUrl&q;:&q;http://www.drmarshallshepherd.com&q;,&q;displayUrl&q;:&q;drmarshallshepherd.com&q;,&q;verified&q;:true},&q;inactive&q;:true,&q;badges&q;:[],&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Tech&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;sectionName&q;:&q;Science&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/science&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Science&q;},&q;division&q;:&q;FC&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}},{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3892&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;},{&q;size&q;:0,&q;image&q;:&q;&q;}],&q;url&q;:&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/&q;,&q;profileUrl&q;:&q;http://blogs.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/profile/&q;,&q;authorType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;blog&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1473605111391,&q;topics&q;:[&q;powering-productivity&q;,&q;health&q;,&q;science&q;,&q;tech&q;,&q;green-tech&q;,&q;lifestyle&q;,&q;sportsmoney&q;,&q;business&q;,&q;sports--leisure&q;,&q;forbeslife-magazine&q;,&q;arts--entertainment&q;,&q;energy&q;,&q;forbeslife&q;,&q;media--entertainment&q;,&q;travel&q;,&q;data-driven&q;],&q;recentActivityCount&q;:2,&q;latestActivityDate&q;:1447787820000,&q;dailyActivityCount&q;:1,&q;primaryBlogNaturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/blog-3892&q;,&q;primaryContributor&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1808880&q;,&q;primaryContributorData&q;:{&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAuthorId/blog/author/1808880&q;,&q;name&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;avatars&q;:[{&q;size&q;:136,&q;image&q;:&q;http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=136&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:40,&q;image&q;:&q;http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=40&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:400,&q;image&q;:&q;http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=400&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;},{&q;size&q;:62,&q;image&q;:&q;http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/ccaea39963f63b294a8fbee31f4b569d?s=62&a;#038;d=mm&a;#038;r=g&q;}],&q;blog&q;:false,&q;shortBio&q;:&q;I write about weather and climate related topics (and study them too)&q;,&q;description&q;:&q;Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Sunday talk show Weather Geeks, Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a Research Meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. In 2004, he was honored at the White House with a prestigious PECASE award. Shepherd is frequently sought as an expert on weather and climate by major media outlets, the White House, and Congress. He has over 80 peer-reviewed scholarly publications and numerous editorials.  Dr. Shepherd received his B.S., M.S. and PhD in physical meteorology from Florida State University.&q;,&q;allowEmail&q;:false},&q;shortUri&q;:&q;http://onforb.es/1SlMgxf&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;technology&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;science&q;,&q;contributorSince&q;:1438301100000,&q;slug&q;:&q;marshallshepherd&q;,&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;embargo&q;:false,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;primarySectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;enableContribContact&q;:false,&q;enableTwitterFeed&q;:false,&q;disableCanonical&q;:false,&q;disableDigest&q;:false,&q;inactive&q;:false,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Tech&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;sectionName&q;:&q;Science&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/science&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Science&q;},&q;allowEmail&q;:false,&q;avatar_map&q;:{}}],&q;channelSection&q;:[{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_1&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_1&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_111&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;},{&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_77&q;}],&q;slug&q;:&q;Marshall Shepherd&q;,&q;blogType&q;:&q;individual&q;,&q;sitePage&q;:&q;forbes.com/technology/blogs/marshallshepherd/index.html&q;,&q;displayChannel&q;:&q;technology&q;,&q;displaySection&q;:&q;science&q;,&q;vestPocketList&q;:[{&q;type&q;:&q;slide&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/pictures/mlj45jggj/1-detroit/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/026M72T8ElbzS/&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;The 10 Most Dangerous U.S. Cities&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndSlideId/blog/slide/986-6336&q;,&q;count&q;:39992,&q;reason&q;:&q;MP-G&q;},{&q;type&q;:&q;blog&q;,&q;uri&q;:&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizryan/2018/02/11/ten-things-never-ever-to-say-in-a-salary-negotiation/&q;,&q;image&q;:&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/dam/imageserve/1018234192/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q;,&q;title&q;:&q;Ten Things Never, Ever To Say In A Salary Negotiation&q;,&q;naturalId&q;:&q;blogAndPostId/blog/post/2989-32868&q;,&q;count&q;:189749,&q;reason&q;:&q;PV-D&q;}],&q;generatedId&q;:&q;glmf45fmif&q;,&q;manualDescription&q;:&q;Yes, Hurricane Harvey is weakening but the real danger from the storm is likely just beginning. Category 4 winds may pale in comparison to the week-long flood threat.&q;,&q;primaryChannelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;primarySectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;vestPocketPosition&q;:6,&q;siteSlug&q;:&q;marshallshepherd&q;,&q;preview&q;:false,&q;showComments&q;:true,&q;timestamp&q;:1504020217951,&q;statsEntities&q;:[{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Disaster_Accident&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Weather&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Environment&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Geography of the United States&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;United States&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Atlantic hurricane seasons&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Atlantic hurricane season&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Tropical cyclone&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Vortices&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Hurricane Katrina&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Hurricane Sandy&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:null},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Coke Coal Mining&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Professional Information Services - NEC&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Social Media &a; Networking&q;,&q;type&q;:null,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;social scientist&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Position&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;social media&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;F. Carter Smith&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;cherokee nation&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Galveston&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;City&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;&a;nbsp;Photographer&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Position&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Colorado State University&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Organization&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;social and traditional media&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;IndustryTerm&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Bill Read&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;director&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Position&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;United States&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Country&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;NWS&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Organization&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Phil Klotzbach&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Andrew&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Texas coast&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;NaturalFeature&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Houston&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;City&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Corpus Christi Day&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Holiday&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;National Hurricane Center&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Organization&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Bloomberg&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Charley&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Organization&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.8},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Gina Eosco&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Hugo&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Person&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Louisiana&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;ProvinceOrState&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0.2},{&q;id&q;:null,&q;name&q;:&q;Twitter&q;,&q;type&q;:&q;Company&q;,&q;relevance&q;:0}],&q;showNoVestPocket&q;:false,&q;googleKeywords&q;:[&q;hurricane harvey&q;,&q; harvey&q;,&q; texas&q;,&q; floods&q;,&q; tornadoes&q;,&q; landfall&q;,&q; houston&q;,&q; rainfall&q;,&q; flooding&q;],&q;writtenByForbesStaff&q;:false,&q;templateType&q;:&q;standard&q;,&q;enableSigfile&q;:true,&q;primaryChannel&q;:{&q;id&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelId&q;:&q;channel_3&q;,&q;channelName&q;:&q;Tech&q;,&q;sectionId&q;:&q;section_16&q;,&q;sectionName&q;:&q;Science&q;,&q;url&q;:&q;/science&q;,&q;shortName&q;:&q;Science&q;},&q;pages&q;:[&q;&l;p&g;I was planning to watch the coverage of Hurricane Harvey today and help where I can with media interviews. However, I was seeing a disturbing narrative evolve in social and traditional media about Hurricane Harvey. &a;nbsp;There was a dangerous focus, in my opinion, on the storm &a;quot;weakening to only a Category 1.&a;quot; &a;nbsp;While that is good news and should be reported, I fear that it provides a false sense of security from the looming and likely greater threat. &a;nbsp;This is an exceptional event that will possibly be discussed with the likes of Sandy or Katrina because the &a;quot;rainfall and flooding&a;quot; part of the story is just beginning.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_2954\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-2954\&q; src=\&q;//blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/08/DIJ3lECXgAEph53.jpg-large.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;\&q; data-height=\&q;716\&q; data-width=\&q;895\&q; /&g; \n  &l;small class=\&q;article-photo-credit\&q;&g;NOAA NHC&l;/small&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;Rainfall potential over the next 7 days from Harvey&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;Hurricane Harvey made landfall (twice) Friday evening east of Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 storm. Part of me was actually nervous about the rapid strengthening to a Category 3/4 storm because I know the immediate danger that this type of storm can bring in terms of storm surge, wind, and tornadoes. Hurricane Harvey is only the fourth category 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1970 according to Colorado State University hurricane expert, &l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/philklotzbach\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Dr. Phil Klotzbach&l;/a&g;. The other category 4 (or higher) storms were&a;nbsp;Hugo, Andrew and Charley.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The other part of my nervousness was this tendency for the public and media to latch onto the inevitable fact that the storm will &a;quot;weaken&a;quot; from a major hurricane to a weaker one or tropical storm. Therein is the problem. As devastating as a landfalling major hurricane is, many of us have always been more concerned about the days of rainfall. It is why my colleagues have to be very careful about how Harvey&s;s evolution is being communicated. We cannot cover this storm just as a &a;quot;landfalling hurricane.&a;quot; It needs to be covered as a &a;quot;lingering, unprecedented flood event.&a;quot; &l;a href=\&q;https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;The excellent Tropical Tidbits website&l;/a&g; provides access to the weather models. If you visit the site, you can see for yourself how the models keep Harvey around for almost a week. &a;nbsp;The &l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/260854.shtml?\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;National Hurricane Center public advisory on the morning of Saturday Aug. 26 warned&l;/a&g;,&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g; \n &l;fbs-ad position=\&q;inread\&q; progressive=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/fbs-ad&g;&l;/p&g; \n&l;blockquote&g; \n &l;p&g;Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through NEXT Wednesday...Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life threatening flooding.&l;/p&g; \n&l;/blockquote&g; \n&l;p&g;In this case, the &a;quot;two&a;quot; in the cliche &a;quot;one-two punch&a;quot; is the the sustained threat. I fielded media interviews throughout the day Friday and at times, I sensed that the reporters really were not grasping this fact. I also got this sense as I monitored comments from friends in social media. It is a challenge because five-to-seven&a;nbsp;days worth of rain from a tropical storm spinning over Texas is not as telegenic or &a;quot;sexy&a;quot; as an iconic category 4 hurricane making landfall. I get it. I do enough media to understand the &a;quot;story.&a;quot; However, the historic rainfall potential is jaw-dropping and a direct threat to the human life. Since Friday evening, some parts of coastal Texas have already received over 1 foot of rainfall, and we still have almost a week of this to go.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div class=\&q;vestpocket\&q; vest-pocket=\&q;\&q;&g;&l;/div&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_41507589\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-41507589\&q; src=\&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/41507589/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\&q; data-height=\&q;1440\&q; data-width=\&q;960\&q; /&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;Vehicles sit in traffic during evacuation ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Galveston, Texas, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. &a;nbsp;Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; \n&l;p&g;&l;a href=\&q;https://twitter.com/WxComm\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Dr. Gina Eosco, a social scientist with Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs,&l;/a&g; is an expert on communication and perception related to weather information. She says&a;nbsp;information on impacts and track information are more accessible, but she has concerns about rainfall messaging,&l;/p&g; \n&l;blockquote&g; \n &l;p&g;When I looked for rain graphics the search took longer than expected. I also observed that (many) Twitter feed only shared the track. NO rain. The weather community shared/discussed the rain, but did we do it too much internally? Did we push it externally? I think the answer is yes. Rain simply isn&s;t as sexy. It rains all the time...But not like this! I also feel we have to determine better ways of conveying amounts of rain to make it more concrete. I don&s;t have easy answers yet, but we&s;re repeatedly seeing this as a challenge...Louisiana last year, Matthew, now Harvey.&l;/p&g; \n&l;/blockquote&g; \n&l;p&g;I agree with Dr. Eosco, and &l;a href=\&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/18/hurricanes-and-tornadoes-have-them-is-it-time-for-a-flood-scale/#479bdeba4940\&q; target=\&q;_self\&q;&g;it is why I tried to provoke discussion in Forbes last year about a future Flood Scale similar to the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita Scale&l;/a&g;.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;The other challenge is the &a;quot;meh, we get floods all of the time&a;quot; mentality. No, no you have not.&a;nbsp;&l;a href=\&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/08/14/the-psychology-of-dealing-with-unprecedented-events-like-the-louisiana-floods/#3861634e7ae0\&q; target=\&q;_self\&q;&g;As I have written before in &l;em&g;Forbes&l;/em&g;&l;/a&g;, humans often have a difficult time placing exceptional events (likely no experience with) within the proper context of their actual experiences (normal rain and flood events). Indeed, Houston floods often, but the creeping nature of five-to-seven&a;nbsp;days of rainfall culminating in 2 to 4 feet of rainfall may be hard to grasp. This fact and optimism bias (&a;quot;I know there is danger in driving through that flooded street, but I will be OK this time&a;quot;) foster dangerous outcomes.&l;/p&g; \n&l;p&g;My colleague &l;a href=\&q;http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201205_bill_read.php\&q; target=\&q;_blank\&q; rel=\&q;nofollow\&q;&g;Bill Read&l;/a&g; is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. He resides in Houston and has been monitoring Harvey. He told me,&l;/p&g; \n&l;blockquote&g; \n &l;p&g;Here&s;s the challenge. Local officials were emphasizing that people should NOT evacuate for the heavy rain threat, and I think for good reason. Because of our topography, feet of rain would put millions of people&s;s homes at risk. Big floods over the past 20 years have extended outside the 100 year flood plain and in some cases outside the 500 year event. The &a;quot;where and how fast the rain will fall&a;quot; won&s;t be known except in the short term so giving specific flood warning as to who is impacted is not possible this far in advance. Exactly who would you tell to leave? As the Rita evacuation (should have) taught us, you cannot efficiently move 2 million people from Houston area.&l;/p&g; \n&l;/blockquote&g; \n&l;p&g;Bill Read also made the point that deaths from recent floods in Houston were all people who drove into flooded roadways. He ended his statement to me by saying, &a;quot;it is a bad situation with no easy answer.&a;quot;&a;nbsp;I will close by noting that the impact of Harvey is really just beginning and will not be fully realized until a week or so from now. Stay alert and safe.&l;/p&g; \n&l;div id=\&q;attachment_2955\&q; class=\&q;wp-caption alignnone\&q;&g; \n &l;div class=\&q;article-body-image\&q;&g; \n  &l;img class=\&q;size-full wp-image-2955\&q; src=\&q;//blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/08/screenshot_110.jpg?width=960\&q; alt=\&q;\&q; data-height=\&q;558\&q; data-width=\&q;765\&q; /&g; \n  &l;small class=\&q;article-photo-credit\&q;&g;NOAA and NWS&l;/small&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n &l;div article-image-caption=\&q;\&q;&g; \n  &l;div class=\&q;caption-container\&q; ng-class=\&q;caption_state\&q;&g; \n   &l;fbs-accordion current=\&q;0\&q;&g; \n    &l;p class=\&q;wp-caption-text\&q;&g;NWS radar on Saturday Morning in Corpus Christi&l;/p&g; \n   &l;/fbs-accordion&g; \n  &l;/div&g; \n &l;/div&g; \n&l;/div&g; 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